MEF Dispatch: Iran Seizes on U.S. Leak to Claim Military Action Won’t Achieve Goals

среда, 25 февраля 2026 г.

Mardo Soghom reports that Iranian media has seized on reports that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of S ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed Iran Seizes on U.S. Leak to Claim Military Action Won't Achieve Goals By Winfield Myers ● Feb 25, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 6 mins...1647 words Mardo Soghom reports that Iranian media has seized on reports that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine cautioned President Trump and senior officials that a military campaign against Iran would carry serious risks. One outlet wrote that the "U.S. can launch an attack but does not know how to manage Iran's response." Shay Khatiri explains the complex succession plans for Iranian leaders should the U.S. target Supreme Leader Khamenei. Constitutional measures are designed to ensure that reliably pro-regime clergy from Qom Seminary and members of the security establishment retain control. Saeid Golkar details why, despite harsh crackdowns, Iranian universities remain significant centers of opposition. This issue also features the work of Potkin Azarmehr, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Amine Ayoub, and Siyad Madey. Iran Seizes on U.S. Joint Chiefs Leak to Suggest Military Action Won't Achieve Goals By: Mardo Soghom As the possibility of a U.S. air campaign looms, Iranian media highlight American doubts about President Trump's military resolve. Why it matters: Government-controlled media stress that a lack of strategy for Iran's retaliation could lead to prolonged conflict. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine reportedly cautioned Trump about the risks of entanglement. Iran's media narrative: Nour News amplifies these concerns, reflecting the Supreme National Security Council's views. The outlet argues that U.S. uncertainty over managing Iran's response could deter military action. Military dynamics: Tehran's deterrent relies on its ballistic missile arsenal, partly degraded by past Israeli strikes. Analysts suggest the U.S. would target these capabilities in any initial attack phase to limit retaliation. To read the full article, click here. Who Will Rule Iran if the United States Kills Khamenei? By: Shay Khatiri President Donald Trump issued a two-week ultimatum to Iran, aligning with the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group's arrival. Why it matters: This deployment, the largest since 2003, signals a major U.S. military escalation in the Middle East. The administration's strategy faces challenges due to Iran's complex leadership succession, involving a temporary ruling council. Iran's intricate succession: In case of a leadership void, a council including the president, chief justice, and a cleric takes over. This structure complicates quick power shifts, making regime change more difficult. Hardliners' influence: The Larijani brothers, with deep ties in Iran's political and security circles, are poised to shape leadership outcomes. Their influence could marginalize reformist figures, maintaining the regime's hardline stance amid U.S. pressure. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry There is intense speculation in Israel about whether U.S. President Donald Trump will order a military strike on Iran, as only Trump holds the final decision despite ongoing hints, massive U.S. military buildup in the region, and the historic deployment of American F-22 jets to Israel for potential offensive use. Negotiations between American and Iranian teams in Geneva represent a decisive moment, with the U.S. insisting on no sunset clauses and pushing for strict limits on Iran's nuclear program, while Israel urges zero uranium enrichment and warns that even low-level enrichment brings Iran significantly closer to weapons capability. If talks fail to produce major Iranian concessions—including on ballistic missiles and proxies—military action appears likely given Trump's limited patience for delays, though domestic Israeli politics, including election timing discussions influenced by potential regional developments, remain closely tied to these events. Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum's Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also been an advisor to the Negev Forum. Originally from the United Kingdom, he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya). To watch the entire podcast, click here. Why Universities Are Still a Powerful Force in Iran By: Saeid Golkar January 2026 marked Iran's attempt to crush dissent by targeting over a million protestors demanding regime change. Why it matters: Thousands killed highlight the regime's view of public assembly as an existential threat. Universities, central to the protests, faced closures and online shifts to disrupt student activism and disperse organized youth. Repressive tactics: Beyond violence, the regime employed bureaucratic measures like dorm closures and online exams, aiming to silence student networks. The regime understands that the university is not simply a physical space, but a social infrastructure built on networks, trust, and shared political language. A dorm isn't just a building; it's a vibrant community where information circulates rapidly, enabling collective action. Enduring dissent: Despite harsh measures, students adapt by organizing online and in semi-clandestine ways, maintaining resistance. The regime's reliance on repression without addressing root causes perpetuates ongoing dissent. To read the full article, click here. Mojahedin-e Khalq Lies About Attacking Khamenei's Compound Erode Its Credibility By: Potkin Azarmehr The Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) claims a major armed operation near Supreme Leader Khamenei's residence, with 250 members involved and 100 casualties. Why it matters: If true, this would be a significant confrontation in Iran's recent history, but the lack of evidence raises serious doubts. No verified footage, photographs, or eyewitness accounts support the claim, casting doubt on its authenticity. MEK's credibility questioned: Use of old images from a 2017 Islamic State attack further undermines the group's narrative. Critics argue this damages MEK's standing as a viable alternative to the Islamic Republic. Implications for Iran: The MEK remains a controversial figure, seen as less desirable than the current regime by many Iranians. Despite lack of domestic support, it positions itself internationally as a ready-made alternative through its National Council of Resistance. The bottom line: The inflated claim risks eroding MEK's credibility, reinforcing the regime's portrayal of it as a chaotic alternative. To read the full article, click here. Why 2026 Is the Year Israel Finally Stopped Fearing Ramadan By: Amine Ayoub Israel's decision to expand Jewish visiting hours on the Temple Mount during Ramadan marks an end to the "Ramadan Veto." Why it matters: This shift asserts Israeli sovereignty, challenging the notion that Jewish presence is a provocation. The expansion to 6:30 a.m. and extending hours demonstrates a commitment to maintaining control over the site. Failure of appeasement: The former policy of restricting Jewish access was seen as a sign of weakness, prompting further demands from extremist groups. Real peace, Israel argues, stems from demonstrating that their presence is non-negotiable. Strategic resolve: By maintaining access, Israel confronts incitement, showing that sovereignty over Jerusalem is non-negotiable. The international community may view this as escalation, but Israel insists it's a move towards genuine stability. To read the full article, click here. Somalia's Pivot from the United Arab Emirates By: Siyad Madey On January 12, 2026, Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud canceled agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), citing Israel's recognition of Somaliland. Why it matters: This move signifies Somalia's effort to reduce reliance on UAE while expanding external partnerships. Despite the move, UAE's influence persists through projects in Puntland and Jubaland, illustrating strategic interdependence. Geopolitical recalibration: The Red Sea-Horn corridor is witnessing realignments as Persian Gulf states, Israel, and African hubs intersect. Somalia seeks sovereignty credibility and diversified alliances, resonating domestically amid ongoing state consolidation. Implications for the Horn: UAE's investments and networks in the Horn allow influence adaptation without confrontation. Israel's recognition of Somaliland elevates its international profile, introducing new dynamics into regional geopolitics. To read the full article, click here. Armed Groups in Sudan's War: An Interview With the al-Bara' bin Malik Corps By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi conducted an interview with a representative of the al-Bara' bin Malik Corps, one of the main auxiliary groups of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in Sudan's ongoing civil war, which is being fought between the SAF and the Rapid Support Forces and has yet to see a decisive victory for either side. Why it matters: Formed over 27 years ago, the Corps is central to the SAF's efforts against the Rapid Support Forces. They participate in multiple battlefronts, asserting national unity against perceived external and internal threats. Controversial ties: The Corps denies links to the Muslim Brotherhood, dismissing such claims as enemy propaganda. Their focus remains on defending Sudan's sovereignty, resisting partition, and emphasizing unity among Sudanese people. Future outlook: Despite ongoing conflict, the Corps remains optimistic about victory and national unity. They call for international support while maintaining a stance focused solely on the current battle with the Rapid Support Forces. To read the full interview, click here. Tunisia's democratic backslide: By: Amine Ayoub Once a beacon of the Arab Spring, Tunisia's democratic progress is now in jeopardy as President Kais Saied aims for a potential third term. Why it matters: The dismantling of the "Tunisian Exception" suggests a shift towards a permanent presidency. The absence of a Constitutional Court allows unchecked presidential power, undermining term limits and electoral integrity. Strategic vacuum: Saied's administration uses a narrative of constant crisis to justify exceptional measures and maintain control. Judicial crackdowns and opposition imprisonments further stifle political competition, creating a political desert. International implications: A permanent autocracy in Tunisia threatens regional stability, making it a brittle partner. Without intervention, Tunisia risks returning to an authoritarian past, undoing the gains of the Arab Spring. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: India Must Worry About a Turkish Nuclear Weapon By: Michael Rubin Israel has woken up to the threat a Turkish nuclear weapons program would pose; India should do so as well. Iran Has Terrorized International Waters for Decades — Now India and the World Have Had Enough By: Amine Ayoub New Delhi has effectively shut down the "ship-to-ship" transfer networks used to mask the origin of Iranian crude. Why Gaza's Clans Are the Missing Piece of the Victory Puzzle By: Amine Ayoub For decades, the international community remained stubbornly wedded to a "top-down" fantasy. Thank you for reading the Dispatch and for counting on the Middle East Forum to bring you continuing updates and analyses. Please share this with a friend and let us know what you think of our ongoing coverage. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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