MEF Dispatch: Where Is Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s New Supreme Leader?

понедельник, 9 марта 2026 г.

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View on web  |  Read what you missed Where Is Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's New Supreme Leader? By Winfield Myers ● Mar 09, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 6.5 mins...1728 words Mardo Soghom writes that several questions arise regarding Mojtaba Khamenei and his appointment as supreme leader, not the least being where is he? Unseen in public since hostilities commenced on Feb. 28, Mojtaba may be wounded because, were he healthy, the regime would be tempted to display him publicly. Shay Khatiri dissects what he calls the futile search for moderates within the Iranian regime, where ideology will always triumph. Speaking of which, Michael Rubin warns not to trust the likes of Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, among others, as relying on him would mean a second chance for the Islamic Republic's nuclear drive, ballistic missile program, and proxies. Shay Khatiri argues that post-regime, Iran needs a benevolent strongman to hold things together. Other featured authors include Umud Shokri, Dalga Khatinoglu, and Nicoletta Kouroushi. Where Is Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's New Supreme Leader? By: Mardo Soghom Mojtaba Khamenei has officially taken the reins as Iran's supreme leader following Ali Khamenei's death amid the U.S.-Israeli air campaign. The big picture: Mojtaba's ascension highlights the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful force in Iran. The IRGC, known for its anti-Western and anti-Israel stance, plays a pivotal role in Mojtaba's rise. Where is Mojtaba?: His location remains undisclosed since the February 28 bombing, sparking speculation. Questions linger about his health and the regime's stability. He may have survived the bombing but was wounded and remains in hiding. Loyalty signals: Key figures pledge allegiance to Mojtaba, strengthening his faction's hold. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and others endorse Mojtaba, unifying the regime under his leadership. To read the full article, click here. The Futile Search for Moderates Within the Iranian Regime By: Shay Khatiri The futile search for moderation in Iran continues, with figures like Ali Larijani and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf labeled as pragmatists despite their hardline foundations. The big picture: The Iranian regime's leadership balances pragmatism with deep-seated ideological roots. Figures like Ali Larijani have been part of the regime's inner circle due to loyalty rather than true moderation. Factional dynamics: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds significant sway, overshadowing the clergy. Clerics like Ayatollah Alireza Arafi have clashed with security forces over the balance of power within Iran. Pragmatism in action: Amid negotiations, Iran showcases tactical flexibility while maintaining ideological rigidity. Ali Larijani's recent actions illustrate a strategic approach to diplomacy without compromising on core ideologies. New figures may emerge and claim the mantle of moderation, but among regime officials, ideology will always triumph. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: The Great Divide: Escalating Rivalry and Regional Security in the Maghreb with Amine Ayoub The Maghreb region faces deep fractures, primarily from the long-standing rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, marked by closed borders since 1994, severed diplomatic ties in 2021, and ongoing disputes over the Western Sahara, where recent international developments favor Moroccan sovereignty. Energy security has become a major flashpoint, with Algeria halting the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline through Morocco, pursuing alternatives like the Trans-Saharan route, while Morocco advances its own Atlantic-oriented Nigerian-Moroccan pipeline project amid global supply disruptions. Broader geopolitical alignments exacerbate tensions, as Morocco strengthens pro-Western and Israeli ties through military cooperation and the Abraham Accords, whereas Algeria maintains pro-Russian and pro-Iranian leanings, with implications extending to proxy influences, Sahel instability, and competition for regional influence involving external powers like Russia, China, and the United States. Amine Ayoub is a North Africa Risk & Intelligence Consultant specializing in energy, security, and geopolitics. He is a Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum and the founder of Maghreb Sentinel. He holds a Master of Arts in National Security from the University of Haifa. To watch the entire podcast, click here. Don't Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory with Ghalibaf or Larijani By: Michael Rubin Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Ali Larijani are deeply entrenched in Iran's power dynamics, marked by controversy and ideological rigidity. Ghalibaf's troubling past: Despite being considered for leadership, Ghalibaf's history of violent crackdowns on protestors raises serious concerns. His actions, including support for brutal suppression, highlight a troubling legacy that undermines reform efforts. Larijani's elusive role: Ali Larijani's disappearance post-nuclear talks reflects his complex position within the regime. His X account went dark for thirty-six hours and, although the regime has subsequently attributed statements to Larijani, it is not clear he remains alive. U.S. strategy risks: Relying on these figures would prolong Iran's hardline stance rather than usher in change. Both Ghalibaf and Larijani's deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mean they would exploit diplomatic efforts to reinforce the regime's grip. To read the full article, click here. Trump Should Do Three Things to Win over Ordinary Iranians By: Michael Rubin As the war persists, President Trump must show solidarity with the Iranian people to undermine the regime's narrative. Deploy hospital ships: Announce the dispatch of USNS Mercy and USNS Comfort to offer free medical care to all Iranians, including Revolutionary Guards. This gesture signals mercy and could encourage divisions within the regime's ranks. Introduce a new rial: Propose a redesigned Iranian currency, free of regime symbols, to inspire hope for a stable future. Highlight cultural icons like Ferdowsi or Persepolis, respecting Iran's rich heritage. Nowruz outreach: As Persian New Year approaches, Trump should encourage symbolic acts of resistance like tire fires. Consider airdropping Nowruz kits to show cultural respect and foster goodwill. Victory isn't only about military might; it requires winning the hearts and minds of ordinary Iranians. To read the full article, click here. Tehran Apologizes for Gulf Arab Strikes as Missile Capability Crumbles By: Mardo Soghom President Masoud Pezeshkian claims Iran's forces acted independently in attacking neighbors, but evidence suggests otherwise. The big picture: Pezeshkian apologized for the attacks, yet the scale and coordination indicate a pre-planned operation. Initial missile and drone launches targeted multiple countries, pointing to strategic intent rather than chaos. Leadership dynamics: Despite Pezeshkian's claims, Iran's command structure seems intact amid leadership losses. The interim council's decision to halt attacks lacks clarity on full control over armed forces. Strategic implications: Tehran's portrayal of restraint may be more necessity than choice as military capabilities dwindle. Ongoing airstrikes have significantly degraded Iran's launch capacity, framing their restraint as strategic rather than forced. To read the full article, click here. Until Iran Grows Its Civil Society, It Will Need a Benevolent Strongman By: Shay Khatiri Iran's civil society faces hurdles in supporting democracy despite its educated population and vibrant protests. The big picture: Decades of totalitarian rule have co-opted institutions, hindering genuine civil society development. Unlike Iraq, Iran's urban society lacks the hierarchical structures necessary for democratic governance. Iran's history lacks a foundation in liberal thought or self-governance. Economic challenges: The command economy, dominated by state cronies, stifles independent business growth. Economic restructuring risks triggering mass unemployment without state subsidies. Political education gap: To simultaneously maintain order and practice democracy, Iran needs an elected head of government and a permanent head of state. Iran had this structure under Mohammad Reza Shah between 1941 and1953, when Mosaddeq tried to seize power and precipitated a more dictatorial period when the shah returned from his brief exile. A future democratic Iran necessitates a return to this pre-Mosaddeq period. To read the full article, click here. Iran's Retaliation Disrupts Liquefied Natural Gas Markets, Threatens Global Energy Security By: Umud Shokri The escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has severely disrupted global energy markets, impacting liquefied natural gas and oil supplies. The big picture: Iranian missile and drone attacks have halted exports from Qatar and disrupted the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. The strait, a vital energy chokepoint, carries about 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas and oil. Market reactions: Liquefied natural gas and oil prices have surged, with European and Asian markets scrambling for alternative supplies. European futures jumped 45 percent, and Asian prices hit record highs as traders seek replacements. Geopolitical implications: The disruption underscores vulnerabilities in global energy supply chains. With limited alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, sustained instability could lead to energy shortages and economic slowdowns globally. To read the full article, click here. Attacks on Tehran's Fuel Storage and Energy Infrastructure Will Have Consequences By: Dalga Khatinoglu The Israeli strikes on March 7 targeted fuel storage linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, disrupting Tehran's supply. Immediate impact: Tehran's governor warns of fuel shortages, urging citizens to minimize non-urgent gas station visits. The loss of storage capacity pressures Tehran's daily consumption needs and reallocates resources to the Guard. Regional tensions rise: Iran's retaliatory attack on Kuwait's fuel facilities highlights the escalating conflict's reach. Kuwait and other Gulf states face reduced exports and heightened threats to their energy infrastructure. Global market reactions: The Strait of Hormuz blockade spikes oil and gas prices, influencing global energy and food markets. Fertilizer prices surge during planting season, raising concerns over food security and necessitating open strait measures. To read the full article, click here. Is the United States Prepared to Defend Cyprus After the Iranian Drone Attack? By: Nicoletta Kouroushi Drone activity near the British base at Akrotiri has exposed Cyprus to the operational reach of hostile actors, highlighting its strategic vulnerability. The big picture: Cyprus's proximity to Western military infrastructure makes it a potential target, despite not being a combatant. The island now sits within the operational map of the Iran confrontation, affecting its civilian infrastructure. Regional responses: Greece's military support underscores the broader regional implications of threats against Cyprus. Cyprus's alignment with the West raises its profile in Tehran's strategic considerations. U.S. strategic responsibility: Ensuring Cyprus's stability is crucial for maintaining the credibility of Western commitments in the region. The U.S. should reinforce its protection of Cyprus to prevent disproportionate risks to smaller allies and uphold regional stability. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Gulf Situation Assessment: Iran's Attacks on Arab States Will Backfire By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour Iran intended its strikes to pressure the U.S.-Israeli operation to stop. For now, that narrative has collapsed. Day Four of the War with Iran: An Update By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour Another massive post-liberal adjustment in which the U.S. is sidelining systems that no longer function as they should. Escalation in the Middle East and the Strategic Dilemma for India By: Imrad Khurshid Conflict in the Persian Gulf strikes at the core of India's economic and strategic interest. The Middle East Forum provides ongoing updates of events in Iran, Israel, and beyond at https://www.meforum.org/. Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch, and share your thoughts on this issue in the comments. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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