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MEF Dispatch: The House of Khamenei Lives On

среда, 11 марта 2026 г.

Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky argue that the election of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed The House of Khamenei Lives On By Winfield Myers ● Mar 11, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 6.5 mins...1758 words Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky argue that the election of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader—contrary to the wishful thinking of some—does not pave the way for de-escalation with the United States. To the contrary, Mojtaba is a son of the system, an engineer of its hardline direction, and now the heir of a bloody logic of revenge. His rise means a more aggressive stance toward the U.S. and the West, not a diplomatic opening. Jonathan Spyer assesses that the regime in Tehran thus far appears to retain the loyalty of its security personnel and the 20 percent of the population that back it. Absent a U.S.-Israeli decision to pursue a long-war strategy—an unlikely turn of events—both Iran and Hezbollah may survive the war. Michael Rubin takes the National Intelligence Council to task for its groupthink and for its recent leak that the CIA doesn't think the U.S. can win. Mardo Soghom asks who is making key decisions in Tehran. We also feature the work of A.J. Caschetta, Mariwan R. Hama, Sirwan Kajjo, and Abdullah Bozkurt. The House of Khamenei Lives On By: Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei's rise as Iran's supreme leader indicates a shift towards even more aggressive policies. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps allegiance: Mojtaba's deep-rooted ties with the IRGC highlight his commitment to hardline policies. His leadership suggests a continuation of aggressive foreign policy, not moderation. Loyalty over diplomacy: Mojtaba's ascent reflects his entrenched role within Iran's hardline networks. His lack of international experience underscores a preference for internal loyalty over diplomatic engagements. Some observers argue that Mojtaba's election may open the way for de-escalation with the United States. This view is wrong. Radical direction: The circumstances of Mojtaba's rise, marked by personal loss, portend a more extreme stance. His leadership is likely to intensify Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional proxy conflicts. To read the full article, click here. Why the Islamic Republic May Survive This Campaign By: Jonathan Spyer Israel's strategic approach has evolved significantly since the events of October 7, 2023, aiming for comprehensive defeat of its regional adversaries rather than mere deterrence. Hamas impact: The massacres highlighted the implacable nature of Islamist enemies, pushing Israel towards a strategy of complete defeat. This shift has led to telling blows against adversaries, significantly weakening Iran's "Axis of Resistance." Iran's resilience: Despite severe damage to Iranian infrastructure, the regime's ability to govern remains intact. Iranian air defenses have collapsed, but loyalty within the regime's core supporters persists. Lebanese dynamics: Israel's actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon have created unprecedented developments. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's declaration of Hezbollah's military activity as illegal reflects internal challenges, yet the LAF's ability to act remains limited. What's next? What could change this picture would be a joint US and Israeli decision to pursue a long-war strategy to bring down the Iranian regime, involving the support for both armed and unarmed elements on the ground. As of now, the adoption of such a strategy appears unlikely. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry Israel faces intense missile and drone attacks from Iran, Lebanon, and other directions, with northern areas enduring particularly heavy barrages while air defenses intercept most incoming threats and the country remains largely intact despite propaganda claims otherwise. The ongoing conflict appears to near its end under strong influence from Donald Trump, who green-lit the operation and now pushes for a swift conclusion due to domestic political pressures, plummeting oil prices after his statements, and Gulf Arab nations' concerns over economic chaos from prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Victory remains uncertain without regime change in Iran, which requires an internal uprising rather than airstrikes alone, though the operation has significantly weakened Iranian military capabilities, nuclear leverage, repression apparatus, and global alliances with Russia and China while reinforcing Israel's strategic reliability as a key ally. Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum's Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also been an advisor to the Negev Forum. Originally from the United Kingdom, he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya). To watch the entire podcast, click here. War Comes to Tehran as Regime Defiance and Mojtaba's Absence Continue By: Mardo Soghom As American and Israeli airstrikes intensify, Tehran's once-bustling streets now echo with silence, reflecting the severe impact of ongoing conflicts. Intense airstrikes: Overnight assaults have left Tehran and Karaj in darkness, with powerful explosions marking some of the most severe attacks yet. Residents report significant power outages and increased fear as the city grapples with the aftermath. Regime's rhetoric: Iranian officials remain defiant, vowing resistance against U.S. and Israeli pressures. Statements from key figures emphasize Iran's unwillingness to cease hostilities without substantial guarantees. Leadership uncertainty: Amidst the turmoil, questions about Iran's leadership arise as Mojtaba Khamenei remains unseen. Speculation grows over his status, with many wondering who truly holds power as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' leadership is depleted. To read the full article, click here. The Intelligence Community Fails on Iran By: Michael Rubin The National Intelligence Council actively shapes its assessments, promoting groupthink and political bias. Political influence: Council officers assign personnel with specific policy biases, influencing intelligence outcomes. In 2007, they reversed their stance on Iran's nuclear intentions, showcasing political maneuvering. Intelligence failures: The council's recent Iran assessment leak encourages Iran's regime to stand firm. The U.S. intelligence community underestimated Iran's regional military responses. Call for accountability: Critics demand action to identify and prosecute the leaker, ensuring intelligence integrity. The council's political actions compromise U.S. national security rather than strengthening it. To read the full article, click here. Elite U.S. Papers Eulogize Ayatollah Khamenei as an 'Avuncular,' 'Austere Cleric' and 'Pragmatist' By: A.J. Caschetta The obituaries for Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, by major American newspapers exhibit a morally indefensible bias, portraying a despotic figure in a sympathetic light. Whitewashing tyranny: The Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal laud Khamenei as a modest religious scholar, ignoring his brutal regime's atrocities. They gloss over his support for terrorism and the systematic oppression under his rule, instead focusing on his supposed avuncular demeanor. Misleading narratives: These outlets misrepresent the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, failing to acknowledge its shortcomings and Iran's deceit. By framing Trump's withdrawal as belligerence, they obscure the reality of Iran's nuclear ambitions and its defiance of international norms. Absence of accountability: Unlike the detailed coverage of bin Laden's death during a Democratic administration, these obituaries shy away from confronting the violent end of Khamenei's rule. The newspapers' reluctance to depict him as the villain underscores a troubling trend of aligning with America's adversaries, raising questions about their journalistic integrity. To read the full article, click here. Will Iraqi Militias Help the Iranian Regime to Survive? By: Mariwan R. Hama As pressure mounts on Iran's regime, the role of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq becomes crucial yet conflicted. Loyalty vs. survival: These militias, part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, are torn between aiding Iran and preserving their gains in Iraq. With Iraq's public opinion wary of deeper Iranian ties, militias risk losing political and economic footholds if they escalate. Political constraints: Pro-Iran militias operate under Iraqi government oversight, complicating any large-scale mobilization. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's commitment to neutrality limits their actions, despite their integration into Iraq's security framework. Strategic limits: While capable, these militias cannot single-handedly alter Iran's regime fate. Their past experiences in Syria serve as cautionary tales, highlighting the risks of overcommitment without guaranteed success. To read the full article, click here. Will Kurdish Insurgents Help America in Iran? By: Jonathan Spyer As the U.S. and Israel seek to topple Iran's regime, Kurdish militias along the Iraq-Iran border emerge as critical allies. Strategic alliances: Armed Kurdish groups like PJAK and PDKI offer a vital ground presence. With Israeli and American backing, these groups could establish liberated zones within Kordestan and beyond. Potential impact: Kurdish militias, if supported adequately, could disrupt Iran's regime from within. This strategy mirrors successful insurgencies in Syria, though it demands sustained commitment from Washington and Jerusalem. Cautious optimism: Kurdish leaders welcome support but remain wary of long-term intentions. Their history of under-resourced struggles makes them approach new alliances with both hope and trepidation. To read the entire article, click here. The Kurds' Washington Dilemma By: Sirwan Kajjo As U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue in Iran, the Kurdish dilemma resurfaces: align with the U.S. for opportunities or risk abandonment. Strategic opportunity: Iranian Kurds, marginalized and pro-American, see potential in aligning with Washington as Tehran's regime weakens. Their secular, democratic aspirations align with U.S. interests, offering a chance to influence Iran's future governance. Historical caution: Past U.S.-Kurdish partnerships reveal both gains and setbacks for the Kurds. Without sovereignty, Kurds depend on shifting U.S. priorities, complicating long-term strategic interests. Critical partnership: The U.S. can recalibrate its relationship with Kurds for strategic leverage in Iran. A reliable Kurdish partner could significantly shape Iran's post-regime change governance, aligning with U.S. regional goals. To read the full article, click here. Turkey's Iran Strategy: Preserve the Mullah Regime—Or Ensure Its Successor Remains Anti-Western By: Abdullah Bozkurt Turkey under its Islamist President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan prioritizes Iran's regime survival to counter Western influence and safeguard Erdoğan's political future. Geopolitical maneuvering: Ankara's strategy involves supporting Tehran to prevent a pro-Western shift in Iran. This approach counters Western and Israeli influence, aligning with Erdoğan's Islamist agenda. Media manipulation: The Turkish government amplifies anti-Israel rhetoric while downplaying Iran's missile attacks on Turkey. Erdoğan's control over media narratives frames Israel as a threat, diverting attention from domestic challenges. Strategic outcomes: Erdoğan aims to maintain a regional balance that shields his government from Western scrutiny. The collapse of Iran's regime could expose Erdoğan to increased geopolitical pressure and isolation. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Transform Ruhollah Khomeini's Tomb Into a Museum on Regime Crimes By: Michael Rubin Perhaps a portion of the huge facility can become a repository for documents and personnel records related to the regime. Confront Al Qaeda in Iran By: Elliot Nazar For years, Al Qaeda has benefited from its mutual arrangement with the Islamic Republic and its protection. Why the Beit Shemesh Massacre Proves 'Restraint' Is a Death Sentence By: Amine Ayoub An Iranian missile strike has reopened the debate over whether defensive success can substitute for strategic victory. The Middle East Forum provides ongoing updates of events in Iran, Israel, and beyond at https://www.meforum.org/. Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch, and please share your thoughts on this issue in the comments. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Middle East Forum 1650 Market Street, Suite 3600 Philadelphia, PA 19103 Unsubscribe Powered by This email was sent by Middle East Forum via Axios HQ