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To Prevent a Regional War, Secure Bahrain

By Winfield Myers ● Feb 16, 2026

Smart Brevity^® count: 6 mins...1594 words

Elliot Nazar urges the U.S. to pay close attention to Tehran's likely attempt to destabilize Bahrain in the event of a U.S strike against the Islamic Republic. Bahrain, an island country whose independence Iranian irredentists have long disputed, is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet. In a recent MEF Podcast, Beni Sabti said the first step the U.S. could take that would make a difference in Iran is to remove "the glue of the Iranian regime" by targeting its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Hiwa Osman observes the changes in the U.S.'s leverage over Iraq from 2003 to today: while troops were needed to rid the country of Saddam Hussein, a recent tweet by President Donald Trump sufficed to push aside Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Siyad Madey reports on Turkish meddling in Somalia, while Nicoletta Kouroushi explains why growing ties between Cyprus and India are in the U.S.'s interest. In two articles, Amine Ayoub writes that, in its perennial struggles for influence with Algeria, pro-Western Morocco has seen its foe's fortunes wane.

To Prevent a Regional War, Secure Bahrain

A view of Manama, the capital and largest city of Bahrain, located on the Persian Gulf. Shutterstock

By: Elliot Nazar

As the U.S. deploys military assets to the Middle East, Tehran threatens retaliation, targeting Bahrain's stability due to its strategic location 15.5 miles off the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia.

Historical tensions: Iran has long disputed Bahrain's independence, with past attempts to influence and destabilize the monarchy. Tehran's support for Shia groups like the Al-Ashtar Brigades continues to pose a threat.

In 2011, Iranian-backed groups aimed to topple Bahrain's monarchy, highlighting ongoing regional instability.

Current developments: Recent statements from Iran-backed figures signal potential escalations if U.S. actions harm Iran. An AI video showing the USS Abraham Lincoln with American flag-draped coffins underscores rising tensions.

Iran-backed Bahraini militants threaten retaliation, increasing pressure on U.S. assets in the region.

Strategic recommendations: To prevent Bahrain from becoming an Iranian front, the U.S. must enhance collaboration with the Bahraini monarchy and allies like Israel. This includes intensifying surveillance of Shia groups, ensuring the protection of U.S. personnel, and coordinating intelligence efforts to neutralize threats from figures like Alawi and Qassim.

Prioritize intelligence sharing with Israel to preempt potential threats and bolster regional security.

To read the full article, click here.

Beni Sabti on Iran: Diplomacy or War?

By: Marilyn Stern

In a recent Middle East Forum podcast, Beni Sabti highlighted how Iran's regime aims to expand its influence, posing a global threat through proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Iran's revolutionary ambitions: Since 1979, Iran's regime has sought to restore a Persian Empire, opposing Western democratic values.

Through proxies, it engages in global terrorism and information warfare.

Internal dissent and protests: Despite a 12-day war in 2025, Iran's people protest against the regime's brutal suppression.

92 percent reportedly oppose the regime, but lack of external support dampens their momentum.

Strategic challenges: Recent U.S. moves towards negotiation confuse the strategic landscape, as Iran's nuclear capabilities are reportedly neutralized.

Coordinated U.S.-Israel actions are essential to counter Iran's threats effectively.

To read the full summary and watch the podcast, click here.

ICYMI: Is Erdoğan's Turkey Becoming Iran 2.0? with Abdullah Bozkurt

Turkey's transformation will outlast Erdogan.

Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's leadership has radically transformed over the past decade, with key government positions now filled by individuals previously flagged in a suppressed investigation into Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force operations, including the current intelligence chief, foreign minister, and education minister who promote antisemitic and pro-Iranian views. Turkey actively supports Hamas by granting operatives citizenship, allowing fundraising through real estate and commerce, and facilitating financial transfers, while also permitting Iranian-linked entities to operate freely despite U.S. sanctions. This ideological alignment with Iran's revolutionary model—suppressing dissent, controlling institutions, and fostering deep anti-Israel hostility through education and policy—has turned Turkey into what analysts describe as "Iran 2.0," creating lasting regional risks, NATO tensions, and domestic challenges like brain drain and economic pressures.

Abdullah Bozkurt is a Swedish-based investigative journalist and analyst who runs the Nordic Research and Monitoring Network. He worked previously as a journalist in New York, Washington, Istanbul, and Ankara. Bozkurt holds a B.A. in political science and international relations from Boğaziçi University in Istanbul.

To watch the full podcast, click here.

In Iraq, Trump Achieves in a Tweet What It Took Bush an Army to Do

A smartphone displays President Donald Trump's social media account on X, formerly Twitter, in 2024. Shutterstock

By: Hiwa Osman

In 2026, President Trump's tweet exemplifies the U.S.'s shift from military might to economic leverage, showcasing Iraq's dependency on U.S. financial systems.

Economic dominance: The U.S. controls Iraq's dollar flow through financial chokepoints, demanding alignment with U.S. interests.

Iraq deposits its oil revenue at the New York Federal Reserve, making it reliant on U.S. financial architecture.

Political implications: Iraqi leaders can no longer publicly appease Iran while privately relying on the U.S., as this dual approach now incurs economic risks.

The era of balancing acts is over. Ambiguity risks currency instability, banking isolation, and restricted reserve access.

Strategic shift: The U.S. influences Iraq through economic architecture rather than military force, reshaping Iraqi political calculations.

The new prime minister must openly align with the U.S. or face financial isolation and instability.

To read the full article, click here.

Turkey's Risky Bet on Somalia and the Horn's Strategic Realignment

Oil may not automatically create prosperity for Somalia. Shutterstock

By: Siyad Madey

In 2026, Turkey began offshore drilling in Somali waters, marking a strategic intervention amidst military deployments and geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa.

Economic potential: If viable reserves emerge, Somalia could move towards economic independence, but oil in fragile states often leads to elite capture and militarization.

30 billion barrels of oil equivalent could be transformative, yet governance challenges loom.

Turkey's strategic arc: From humanitarian aid to military presence, Turkey embeds itself in Somalia's energy and security sectors, gaining leverage over maritime routes.

Turkish F-16s deployed in Mogadishu underscore Ankara's military and economic influence.

Security complexities: Somalia's weak governance and active insurgencies complicate hydrocarbon development, risking further militarization and destabilization.

Oil assets could become targets, demanding enhanced security measures.

To read the full article, click here.

Cyprus-India Relations Should Be a U.S. Strategic Interest

Nikos Christodoulides, president of Cyprus, in Berlin in November 2025. Shutterstock

By: Nicoletta Kouroushi

Growing links between the Eastern Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific are transforming trade and energy networks, with Cyprus-India relations exemplifying this shift.

Strategic visits and investments: Cypriot President Christodoulides plans a significant visit to India in May 2026, building on long-standing diplomatic ties and growing economic cooperation.

Indian investments in Cyprus have strengthened diplomatic and trade relations, promoting economic collaboration.

Trade integration: The EU-India free trade framework reduces tariffs, benefiting Cypriot exports like pharmaceuticals, while enhancing Cyprus's role as a gateway to European markets.

Lower tariffs on pharmaceuticals and machinery boost Cyprus's market access, positioning it as a hub in EU-India trade.

U.S. strategic perspective: Cyprus-India cooperation supports U.S. goals of diversified supply chains and stable trade networks, reducing reliance on single suppliers.

These partnerships contribute to supply chain resilience across regions, aligning with U.S. strategic objectives.

To read the full article, click here.

The Phantom Seat: North Africa's African Union Deadlock and the New Trans-Regional Axis

While the transition of the chairmanship to Burundi and the vice chairmanships to Ghana and Tanzania proceeded apace, the seat reserved for North Africa remained conspicuously empty. This

By: Amine Ayoub

At the opening of the 39th African Union (AU) Assembly, a vacant North African seat underscores a geopolitical stalemate, highlighting the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria.

Phantom Seat: The absence is more than a bureaucratic issue—it's a reflection of the high-stakes alignment with Western and Abrahamic security interests, splitting the Maghreb into competing blocs.

Morocco's recent win in the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) exemplifies its strategic ascendancy over Algeria.

Strategic influence: Morocco's election to the Peace and Security Council marks a shift in continental power balance towards a pro-Western orientation, bypassing regional deadlock to influence Africa's security architecture.

This aligns with United States and Israeli interests, strengthening a trans-regional security axis against Iranian influence.

Future outlook: The stalemate highlights North Africa's pivotal role in a new security architecture, where technology and strategic alignment are crucial.

The "Phantom Seat" symbolizes the friction of transitioning from a divided past to an integrated future.

To read the full article, click here.

The Madrid Secret: Forcing Algeria to Finally End Its War Against Morocco

By doubling down on the Moroccan Autonomy Plan and treating Algeria as the primary antagonist it has always been, the Trump administration can secure a strategic victory that has eluded the West for f...

By: Amine Ayoub

The era of "both-sidesism" in the Maghreb is ending, as recent talks at the U.S. Embassy in Madrid mark a pivot towards realism in the Western Sahara conflict.

New diplomatic approach: Algeria was forced to participate as a principal, not an observer, acknowledging its role in the conflict.

The "Madrid Roadmap 2026" introduces Morocco's Autonomy Plan as a blueprint for sovereignty, integrating taxation and security under Moroccan rule.

Strategic pressure: Algeria's participation was driven by U.S. pressure, including potential sanctions over military ties with Russia and Iran.

Washington must enforce accountability to prevent a return to regional destabilization.

Path to stability: The U.S. must stop mediating and start enforcing a solution, dismantling the Polisario Front and integrating Tindouf residents into Morocco.