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Inside Israel’s Buffer Zone in Lebanon By Winfield Myers ● Apr 22, 2026
Smart Brevity® count: 7 mins...1892 words
Drawing on his recent tip to the Israel Defense Forces’ buffer zone in south Lebanon, Jonathan Spyer reports that, whatever the optimism regarding the direct talks between representatives of the Israeli and Lebanese governments, from the ground it is clear that the real power lies with the leaders of Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. In Lebanon, in Gaza, and on the border with Syria, Israel’s response to the Iranian regime’s survival is to seek to establish physical barriers between its own population and potential threats emerging from the poorly or non-governed areas where Iran’s proxies hold sway.
Michael Rubin argues that, if President Trump’s critics are correct that the Iranian regime today is more radical than two months ago (not a given), then the conclusion is that everyone who remains in it should be a target. Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi write that, with Tehran increasing its targeting of the diaspora, the West should respond by closing Iran’s embassies, which are important centers for transnational repression.
We also feature the work of Mardo Soghom, Marilyn Stern, Dalga Khatinoglu, and Sirwan Kajjo.
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Inside Israel’s Buffer Zone in Lebanon Shielding Border Communities from Hezbollah
By: Jonathan Spyer
The meeting between Ambassadors Yechiel Leiter and Nada Hamadeh Moawad of Israel and Lebanon respectively in Washington a week ago has been hailed as potentially representing a diplomatic breakthrough between the two countries. On the ground in Lebanon, however, things look different, as real power resides not with the government but with Hezbollah, heavily backed by Iran.
Why it matters: Hezbollah’s dominance casts a shadow over diplomatic efforts and regional stability.
Military dynamics: Hezbollah operates independently, launching wars and intervening militarily as seen in Syria from 2013 to 2023.
IDF’s buffer zone: The Israeli Defense Forces have expanded control north of the border, establishing a buffer zone in response to Hezbollah’s aggression.
To read the full article, click here.
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Secure Your Spot: The 2026 Middle East Forum Policy Conference
Join us in Washington, D.C., from May 19-21, 2026, for the Middle East Forum's exclusive Policy Conference as we navigate the turbulent aftermath of the Iran war and its regional shockwaves. This private gathering will tackle today's most pressing geopolitical challenges, featuring in-depth analyses of Turkey's shifting influence and the vital future of the U.S.-Israel relationship. We will also confront the rising threat of domestic Islamists, equipping attendees with the strategic insights needed to counter these interconnected issues.
Click here to secure your spot for America the Unpredictable and access our special hotel block before the May 1st RSVP deadline.
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ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry
Israel marked its 78th Independence Day following Memorial Day amid heightened national grief after the October 7 attacks, as the country navigates an uneasy pause in active warfare across multiple fronts under U.S.-brokered ceasefires. Uncertainty dominates the regional landscape, with stalled or tentative negotiations involving Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza, internal divisions within Iran’s leadership, and continued tensions over Hezbollah activity and Hamas regrouping despite reduced hostilities. Domestic political pressure is mounting ahead of Israel’s 2026 elections, as the government faces public dissatisfaction over unresolved security threats, limited strategic outcomes, and reliance on U.S. decision-making in both military and diplomatic arenas.
Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel’s minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also been an advisor to the Negev Forum. Originally from the United Kingdom, he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya).
To view the podcast, click here.
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Has the Iran War Made Its Regime More Radical? Yes, and Easier to Eliminate
By: Michael Rubin
President Trump claims he achieved regime change in Iran, but his critics go too far in claiming his actions radicalized the regime.
Why it matters: Critics who argue the regime has become more radical overlook a key point: the regime was already radical.
Leadership shifts: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was the ultimate hardliner, for example. So, too, were Mohammad Pakpour, the commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and others.
Misguided criticisms: Analysts who claim Trump’s actions radicalized the regime ignore that the so-called moderates lacked power or desire to change Iran.
Strategic focus: True regime change requires fracturing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps‘ power because the reality is this: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has always been the problem.
Targeting the Guard: For the U.S., this should mean not waiting for a unified proposal or falling victim to the regime’s usual good cop/bad cop games, but rather, targeting all the remaining hardliners without mercy.
To read the full article, click here.
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Iran Targets Its Diaspora
By: Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi
The Islamic Republic of Iran is escalating its transnational repression by threatening the Iranian diaspora with asset confiscation and severe penalties.
Why it matters: This move aims to instill fear and silence political activism abroad, expanding repression beyond Iran’s borders.
Diplomatic guise for repression: Iran’s embassies in Europe serve as bases for targeting diaspora members.
National and international stakes: The diaspora’s activism has become a political force, threatening the regime’s stability.
To read the full article, click here.
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Tehran Tests Limits After Ceasefire, Threatens Shipping and Internet Routes
By: Mardo Soghom
Iran’s leadership took a victory lap after President Trump extended the ceasefire, emphasizing their strategic advantage in the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: Tehran’s ability to disrupt the Strait has far-reaching implications for global energy and internet infrastructure.
Trump’s ceasefire decision: Critics argue it reflects a stalemate, with both sides leveraging strategic advantages to avoid conflict.
Potential escalation risks: Observers warn that miscalculations, like an attack on U.S. assets, could reignite conflict.
To read the full article, click here.
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Iran Aiming for More Concessions Before Returning to Talks
By: Mardo Soghom
Iran’s refusal to attend talks in Pakistan highlights its claim that it is ready to confront the U.S., as military leaders warn of unleashing “hell” if negotiations fail.
Why it matters: Tehran’s stance reflects a strategic gamble to extract better terms while risking renewed conflict.
Diplomatic dynamics: Behind-the-scenes negotiations continue, with reports of potential concessions from Washington.
Economic pressures on Iran: The naval blockade strains Iran’s economy, threatening oil production and imports of essential goods.
To read the full article, click here.
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Alexander Grinberg on Iran’s Decentralized ‘Mosaic Defense’ Military Doctrine
By: Marilyn Stern
In an April 20 MEF Podcast, Alexander Grinberg outlined Iran’s decentralized “mosaic defense,” a doctrine dispersing power via autonomous military units.
Why it matters: This strategy reflects Iran’s focus on endurance over victory, revealing vulnerabilities in command communications.
Impact on regional stability: Iran’s missile strategy poses more threat to Gulf countries than Israel, with potential for false flag operations.
Strategic implications for the West: Economic pressure alone won’t suffice; military action must be flexible and creative.
To read the full article, click here.
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Iran Under Pressure as War Exposes Deep Industrial Damage
By: Dalga Khatinoglu
With the ceasefire nearing its end, Iran is at a critical juncture, facing decisions on sanctions relief and regional concessions.
Why it matters: Prolonged confrontation has led to severe economic instability, with Iran’s GDP projected to shrink by 6.1 percent this year.
Industrial disruption: Key sectors like petrochemicals and steel have suffered extensive damage, impacting domestic supply and exports.
Strategic implications: The convergence of military pressure and economic decline may push Iran toward concessions.
To read the full article, click here.
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The United States Exiting Kurdish Syria Is a Mistake
By: Sirwan Kajjo
The U.S. military’s evacuation of its last base in northeast Syria signals the end of a decade-long partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
Why it matters: This withdrawal reflects a pattern of premature disengagement in U.S. counterterrorism strategy, raising concerns about regional stability.
Historical parallels: The situation mirrors the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, which preceded the rise of the Islamic State.
Future implications: While the U.S. retains some leverage, the dissolution of Kurdish forces complicates ongoing counterterrorism efforts.
To read the full article, click here.
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Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch. The Middle East Forum provides a steady stream of analyses and updates at https://www.meforum.org/. Please share your thoughts on this issue in the comments.
Thank you,
Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch
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