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Israel Won’t Stop Until Hezbollah Is Crushed By Winfield Myers ● Apr 13, 2026
Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...2012 words
Regarding the Washington, D.C., talks this week between Israel and Lebanon, Jonathan Spyer writes that any agreement signed with the official government of Lebanon would be meaningless for as long as Hezbollah can—at the behest of its masters in Tehran—launch war on Lebanon’s southern neighbor Israel at a time of its choosing. Amine Ayoub notes that an adversary like Hezbollah that does not accept the permanence of the opposing state (Israel) does not experience a ceasefire as a settlement, but as a reloading interval.
Mardo Soghom says the U.S. blockade of the Persian Gulf, if successful, would inflict heavy economic losses on Iran totaling some $435 million per day—almost $13 billion per month. Jonathan Spyer argues that Iraq, as currently governed, represents a textbook success story for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ method of combining political and military power to hollow out states and turn them into satrapies.
This issue also features the work of Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez, and Imran Khurshid.
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Israel Won’t Stop in Lebanon Until Hezbollah Is Crushed
By: Jonathan Spyer
Direct U.S.-brokered talks between Israeli and Lebanese representatives are scheduled to take place in Washington this week.
Why it matters: These talks mark the first direct and public negotiations between Beirut and Jerusalem, symbolizing a significant diplomatic effort amid ongoing conflict.
Backdrop: Despite the talks, Hezbollah’s attacks on Israeli cities and Israel’s military response continue. The IDF has set up a buffer zone along the Israel-Lebanon border.
What’s next: It is a mistake to consider the events in Iran, Israel, Iraq, Hormuz and Lebanon since 28 February as constituting a “war.”
Rather, they are a round of fighting in a much longer conflict that has been under way for decades and is likely to end only when the regime in Tehran falls. Short of that, prepare for more of the same.
To read the full article, click here.
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ICYMI: Dhimmitude and the Politics of Accommodation with Judith Miller
Giselle Littman, writing under the pen name Bat Ye'or, is a Jewish woman from Egypt whose family was expelled, leading her to document the historical treatment of Christians and Jews as dhimmis—second-class citizens under Islamic rule subject to restrictions and taxes—and to warn that large-scale Muslim migration would transform Europe's cultural identity into Eurabia through accommodation by European officials. Her work highlighted how mass migration has resulted in concessions to Islamic pressures in countries like France and the United Kingdom, including reduced Holocaust education, reluctance to address issues such as Pakistani grooming gangs, rising knife crime in Germany, and a chilling effect on free speech and law enforcement. Fortunately, there is pushback in Europe through stricter immigration policies in places like Hungary and Denmark and reason for optimism for the U.S. due to its activist culture and robust debate.
Judith Miller is a Pulitzer Prize–winning investigative reporter and former New York Times journalist, now affiliated with the Manhattan Institute. She has focused on national security, terrorism, and the Middle East and is also a published author of multiple best-selling books. She has a bachelor's degree from Barnard College and a master's from Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
To watch the full podcast, click here.
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Beyond the Buffer: Why South Lebanon Demands a New Strategic Logic
By: Amine Ayoub
Every framework for ending a conflict rests on an assumption about what ending actually means.
Diplomatic failures: Traditional diplomatic efforts, such as ceasefires and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandates, often fail because they treat the absence of combat as a resolution.
Hezbollah’s escalation: The group’s recent actions were not due to intelligence failures but a consequence of undermining deterrence structures.
Strategic necessity: A permanent Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon is essential, not just territorial.
To read the full article, click here.
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Trump’s Blockade Would Hit Iran’s Economy and Military Recovery
By: Mardo Soghom
The U.S. Central Command has announced a blockade of maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, introducing sustained military pressure that stops short of renewed airstrikes but carries clear escalatory risks.
Why it matters: If successful, the blockade will severely impact Iran’s economy by cutting off around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil exports, along with other vital goods.
Economic strain: Iran’s vulnerability is significant, with over 90% of its trade passing through the Persian Gulf.
Geopolitical tension: The blockade raises questions about China’s response, as it heavily relies on Iranian crude oil.
To read the full article, click here.
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Iraq’s Militia State: Shelly Kittleson’s Kidnapping Exposes Who Runs Baghdad
By: Jonathan Spyer
The (mercifully brief and now concluded) incarceration of U.S. freelance journalist Shelly Kittleson in Iraq at the hands of the Shia militia Kataib Hezbollah (KH) reveals much about who really runs Iraq.
Why it matters: Kittleson’s release was negotiated between elements of the Iraqi state, showcasing a contradiction within Iraq’s governance.
The backdrop: Kataib Hezbollah, supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), maintains independent control in areas like Jurf al-Nasr.
What’s next: Iraq, as currently governed, represents a textbook success story for the IRGC’s method of combining political and military power to hollow out states and turn them into satrapies.
To read the full article, click here.
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‘Exit Without Departure’—What Remains of Iranian Influence and Networks in Syria
By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Assad’s fall has stripped Iran of most of its assets in Syria, but networks remain and could be leveraged to open a new front.
Why it matters: Iranian influence in Syria was primarily military, cultural, and religious, through the IRGC and Hezbollah.
These layers of influence often overlapped, involving recruitment, ideological propagation, and religious alignment.
Current dynamics: With the regime’s collapse, many Iranian-linked groups withdrew, while local networks shifted alliances.
What’s next: Despite the reduction in hard power, Iran’s ideological and network influence remains adaptable.
To read the full article, click here.
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Turkey Arms Tripoli Islamists as Eastern Libya Rebuilds with Oil Money
By: Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez
The Turkish parliament voted in December 2025 to extend its military deployment in Libya for another two years, reinforcing Ankara’s influence in the Mediterranean.
Why it matters: This move solidifies Turkey’s strategic hold, utilizing military support and energy corridor control to expand its influence.
Eastern Libya’s stance: Led by Khalifa Haftar, Eastern Libya, with Benghazi as its major city, focuses on stability and infrastructure development.
Geopolitical stakes: Turkey’s presence influences NATO dynamics, supporting Islamist-linked factions and challenging alliance cohesion.
To read the full article, click here.
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Libya’s Oil Trap: 81 Percent Recovery of Production Yet Militias Persist 15 Years After NATO
By: Amine Ayoub
Fifteen years after NATO’s intervention, Libya produces roughly 81 percent of its prewar oil levels, yet the numbers reveal the failure of the state-building experiment.
Why it matters: Libya’s oil, once centralized under Gaddafi, is now the ultimate prize in a fragmented power struggle among tribes, militias, and rival governments.
The trap: Libya’s oil production remains hostage to militia politics, impacting European energy reliance and market stability.
A cautionary tale: The partial rebound underscores a deeper failure to establish a governance system capable of managing resources and fostering prosperity.
To read the full article, click here.
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India-United Arab Emirates Ties Deepen Amidst Middle East Turmoil
By: Imran Khurshid
While much attention has focused on the transformation of India-Israel ties under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, India’s partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also has undergone a profound evolution.
Why it matters: Modi’s engagement with Emirati leadership underscores the strategic depth of their partnership, especially amidst ongoing regional conflict.
Regional dynamics: The UAE’s strategic investments in Jammu and Kashmir signal its commitment to strengthening ties with India.
Strategic initiatives: India and the UAE collaborate on initiatives like the India-Israel-UAE-US (I2U2) and the India-Middle East Economic Corridor.
To read the full article, click here.
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How Khums Challenges State Sovereignty and Creates Its Own
By: Mohammad Taha Ali
Shi’i scholars describe khums, a Shi’i religious tax on surplus income derived from Qur’an 8:41, as an instrument of social justice.
Why it matters: Khums not only supports religious authority but also institutionalizes governance across borders, circumventing state sovereignty.
Financial control: Khums funds are channeled through transnational networks, supporting seminaries and social services.
Transparency challenge: Limited transparency in khums operations raises concerns about accountability and regulatory oversight.
To read the full article, click here.
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Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch. The Middle East Forum will provide a steady stream of analyses and updates at https://www.meforum.org/. Please share your thoughts on this issue in the comments.
Thank you,
Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch
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