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MEF Dispatch: Iran Gambles That the United States Won’t Resume Hostilities

среда, 15 апреля 2026 г.

Mardo Soghom warns that, even if Washington and Tehran reach a deal, Iran’s generals will not allow ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed Iran Gambles the U.S. Won’t Resume Hostilities By Winfield Myers ● Apr 15, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 6.5 mins...1707 words Mardo Soghom warns that, even if Washington and Tehran reach a deal, Iran’s generals will not allow it to become a “normal” country. Instead, they will maintain tight political and economic control, waiting for the Trump era to end. Michael Rubin applauds President Trump’s blockade of Iran’s Persian Gulf ports, but writes that the U.S. must prevent Iran from using its Caspian Sea ports as a back door to evade the blockade. Shay Khatiri predicts the blockade will not be sufficient to bring down the regime in Tehran. We also feature the work of Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, and Abdullah Bozkurt. Iran Gambles That the United States Won’t Resume Hostilities By: Mardo Soghom President Donald Trump may anticipate a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations, suggesting an “amazing two days” ahead. However, Iran’s military issues a stark warning as tensions rise. Why it matters: The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports threatens to escalate tensions into conflict. Major General Ali Abdollahi warns that closing crucial trade routes like the Persian Gulf could provoke military action from Iran. Economic strain: The blockade is strangling Iran’s economy, causing a spike in unemployment and triple-digit food inflation. Citizens report a garrison-like atmosphere in Tehran as security forces intensify to prevent unrest. Political stakes: While Trump touts a regime change, power remains with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The real decision-makers, entrenched military leaders, continue to influence Iran’s stance, despite U.S. optimism. To read the full article, click here. Secure Your Spot: The 2026 Middle East Forum Policy Conference Join us in Washington, D.C., from May 19-21, 2026, for the Middle East Forum's exclusive Policy Conference as we navigate the turbulent aftermath of the Iran war and its regional shockwaves. This private gathering will tackle today's most pressing geopolitical challenges, featuring in-depth analyses of Turkey's shifting influence and the vital future of the U.S.-Israel relationship. We will also confront the rising threat of domestic Islamists, equipping attendees with the strategic insights needed to counter these interconnected issues. Click here to secure your spot for America the Unpredictable and access our special hotel block before the May 1st RSVP deadline. ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry Events in Israel, Iran, and Lebanon are shifting rapidly, with conflicting signals from Iranian leadership and ongoing negotiations alongside threats. President Donald Trump drives decisions on ceasefires and military operations, pushing toward an end to hostilities with Iran while pressuring Israel to accept parallel developments in Lebanon despite ongoing battlefield gains. A U.S. blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports has increased leverage in nuclear negotiations, where key disputes include uranium enrichment limits, existing stockpiles, sanctions relief, and Iran’s regional proxy network. Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel’s minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also been an advisor to the Negev Forum. Originally from the United Kingdom, he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya). To watch the entire podcast, click here. Trump’s Iran Blockade Has a Back Door—Not the Gulf, but a Lake the Size of Germany That Russia and Iran Share By: Michael Rubin After negotiations failed, President Trump ordered a blockade on Iranian ports, sparking tensions across key waterways. Why it matters: The blockade targets Iranian ports on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, critical for oil exports and imports, and could destabilize regional trade. Bandar Abbas and other Gulf ports are pivotal and Trump’s blockade of them is wise, but Iran’s unique geography challenges the blockade’s effectiveness. Caspian Sea challenge: Iran’s routes via the Caspian Sea pose a strategic loophole. Bandar Anzali and Chalus facilitate Russian support, highlighting the complexity of enforcing the blockade. Strategic response: To close these gaps, the U.S. must use its air dominance to declare that any ship entering Iran’s territorial waters in the Caspian will be sunk. Second, the U.S. should target truck traffic crossing the mountain pass from Chalus. Trump must also pressure Azerbaijan to align decisively against Iran, addressing both maritime and land-based threats. To read the full article, click here. No, a Blockade Will Not Be Enough to Bring Down Iran By: Shay Khatiri On April 13, 2026, President Donald Trump announced a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian ports. However, the move reveals a strategic misunderstanding of Iran’s priorities. Why it matters: The blockade, intended as diplomatic leverage, faces logistical challenges due to U.S. naval commitments elsewhere. Iran’s focus on security over economy suggests the blockade may not pressure the regime as intended. Economic pressure not enough: U.S. reliance on economic pressure ignores Iran’s resilience and “resistance economy” ideology. Iran has minimized reliance on China, instead boosting domestic production and morale among its forces. Broader implications: If the U.S. seeking a leverage to use against the regime in diplomacy, it must threaten the core of the regime, including the lives of its leadership. A blockade is a useful tool to this end, but its effects will be slow to actualize; it requires patience and complementary tools. To read the full article, click here. Time to Close U.S. Bases in the Middle East By: Michael Rubin As war looms with Iran, the Pentagon evacuated Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar after 25 years, revealing the strategic pitfalls of past decisions. Why it matters: U.S. basing decisions have shielded host nations like Qatar from accountability, despite their support for extremist groups. Successive defense secretaries prioritized free leases over national security, avoiding confrontations with provocative host countries. Global implications: The reliance on Middle Eastern bases often constrains U.S. military actions. Examples include Turkey and Qatar’s refusals to support operations, highlighting the need for strategic reevaluation. Future of defense: The Pentagon must modernize its strategy, abandoning outdated bases for more flexible options. Embracing advanced aircraft and new locations like Somaliland could ensure effective power projection without compromising U.S. interests. To read the full article, click here. North Korea Is the Head of the Snake—and the West Keeps Striking the Tail By: Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez For decades, North Korea has supplied missile and nuclear technology to Iran, compromising U.S. interests and global nonproliferation efforts. Why it matters: This partnership destabilizes the Middle East and provides Iran with advanced capabilities, threatening regional security. Despite sanctions, North Korea continues to transfer missile systems and nuclear expertise to Iran, fueling tensions. Khan’s pivotal role: Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was instrumental in proliferating nuclear technology, linking Iran with North Korea. His network shared crucial nuclear secrets and enrichment technology, laying the groundwork for Iran’s missile capabilities. Policy implications: Effective countermeasures require targeting North Korea’s support networks and enforcing stringent sanctions. Aggressive actions against facilitating banks and shipping companies are crucial to disrupting this axis of proliferation. To read the full article, click here. Islamic State Editorial: ‘Our Aqsa and Our Prisoners’ By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi An editorial from the Islamic State terrorist group, translated by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, highlights growing unrest in the Arab world due to Israel’s new death penalty law for Palestinian militants, triggering fears of mass executions. Why it matters: The law has provoked demonstrations in Syria, focusing on Palestinian prisoners and the closure of al-Aqsa Mosque. Hamas acknowledges these protests, emphasizing local mobilization and denying Iranian influence. Islamic State’s narrative: The group reframes the outrage to spotlight its imprisoned members in Iraq, criticizing the lack of attention to their plight. Calls for global retaliation against Jewish sites echo amid the unrest, showcasing the group’s opportunistic messaging. Strategic implications: The editorial underscores deep-rooted animosity towards Shia groups, framing them as obstacles to liberating Jerusalem. The narrative connects internal Sunni-Shia conflicts to broader geopolitical struggles, urging action against perceived enemies within. To read the full article and translation, click here. Anti-Hamas Armed Groups in Gaza: Interview with ‘The Popular Defence Forces’ By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Amidst Gaza’s turmoil, Hamas confronts new challenges from armed groups like the southern ‘Popular Defence Forces,’ who call for peace and the return of the Palestinian Authority. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi interviewed a representative of the group. Why it matters: Hamas, labeled a terrorist organization by its opponents, faces internal dissent as groups advocate for peace with Israel. This dissent highlights the complexity of Gaza’s political landscape and the desire for change among its people. Hamas’s stance: Despite opposition, Hamas remains influential, leveraging its control to maintain power and resist Israeli influence. Their narrative positions them as defenders of Palestinian interests against perceived external threats. Broader implications: The ongoing conflict and internal divisions in Gaza affect regional stability and the potential for peace. As new groups challenge Hamas, the dynamics in Gaza could shift, impacting the broader Middle East peace process. To read the full interview, click here. Attack on Israeli Consulate in Istanbul Reflects Policies of Erdoğan That Enabled ISIS By: Abdullah Bozkurt The recent attack on the Israeli consulate in Istanbul underscores Turkey’s leniency towards the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) networks while cracking down on legitimate opposition to sustain President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s regime. Why it matters: This incident highlights the disparity in Turkey’s counterterrorism efforts, risking both internal and international security. Turkish authorities downplay ISIS involvement, focusing on foreign provocations. Judicial leniency: The lead attacker, Yunus Emre Sarban, previously acquitted on ISIS charges, exemplifies Turkey’s softer stance on jihadist groups. Courts often release ISIS suspects despite evidence, contrasting with harsh measures against dissenters like the Gülen movement. Broader implications: Erdoğan’s focus on suppressing opposition, rather than extremism, could destabilize regional peace. This selective justice risks turning internal blind spots into broader security threats. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: U.S.-Iran Talks on Long-Term Deal Doomed as Long as Both Sides Insist They Won the War By: Lazar Berman Iran’s 10-point plan reads like the type of settlement a victor would impose on a vanquished foe. Iran’s Oversized Delegation in Pakistan Raises Questions By: Mardo Soghom The delegation itself has become a visible expression of internal fragmentation. Cyprus, the British Bases, and the Limits of Military Access By: Nicoletta Kouroushi The objective is to reshape how the bases function in practice, particularly during regional instability We hope you enjoyed this issue of the MEF Dispatch. The Middle East Forum provides a steady stream of analyses and updates at https://www.meforum.org/. Please share your thoughts on our coverage in the comments. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Middle East Forum 1650 Market Street, Suite 3600 Philadelphia, PA 19103 Unsubscribe Powered by This email was sent by Middle East Forum via Axios HQ