MEF Dispatch: Khamenei Raises Specter of Regional War

понедельник, 2 февраля 2026 г.

Mardo Soghom analyzes the content and context of yesterday's fiery speech by Iran's Supreme Leader A ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed Khamenei Raises Specter of Regional War By Winfield Myers ● Feb 02, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...1998 words Mardo Soghom analyzes the content and context of yesterday's fiery speech by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who blamed the United States for the ongoing unrest in his country and promised a regional war—in Farsi, as that sentence was omitted from the English-language version of his official website. Additionally, the fate of the tens of thousands of protesters taken into custody is unknown, but some fear that, should the U.S. attack, many detainees could be killed and later presented as civilian casualties. Sirwan Kajjo writes that last week's agreement between Syria and the Kurds is "unsustainable" because it lacks the foundation for a lasting settlement—a fact reinforced by the different interpretations offered by each side just after the agreement was announced. This issue of the Dispatch also contains the work of Hussein Aboubakr Mansour, Michael Rubin, Bashir Goth, and Amine Ayoub, among others. Khamenei Raises Specter of Regional War Amid Unrest at Home By: Mardo Soghom Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened a regional war should the U.S. launch a military operation against Iran. Khamenei's fiery rhetoric: In a lengthy speech, Khamenei accused President Trump of orchestrating unrest in Iran, asserting that the uprising had been crushed. "They talk about war, about aircraft and warships—this is nothing new. Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war," Khamenei declared, a statement omitted from his English-language website but highlighted by Iranian media. Regional tensions rise: While Qatar remains a friend, Khamenei's threat seemed more directed at Iran's Arab neighbors, recalling past hostilities like the 2019 attacks on Saudi oil installations. Despite these tensions, Tehran's past aggression towards Saudi Arabia amid U.S. sanctions remains a point of contention. Qatar's diplomatic engagement: Qatar's Prime Minister visited Iran, potentially relaying messages from Trump to ease tensions, amid ongoing crackdowns on protesters in Iran. Reports indicate Tehran might consider relinquishing its enriched uranium stockpile to avert a U.S. attack. To read the full article, click here. The Newest Deal Between Syria and the Kurds Is Not Sustainable By: Sirwan Kajjo The January 30, 2026, agreement between the Syrian interim government and Syrian Democratic Forces has paused violence but lacks a solid foundation for lasting peace. Violence against Kurds: Despite the agreement, the Syrian government has a history of violence against the Kurdish population, exacerbating tensions. Recent attacks and hostile actions highlight the precarious position of Kurdish communities. Agreement's ambiguity: The deal provides few guarantees, with conflicting interpretations about the integration of Syrian Democratic Forces. Kurdish forces plan to maintain their structure, while the Syrian government seeks individual absorption into its ranks. International intervention: Washington and Paris facilitated the agreement and could deploy peacekeepers to stabilize the region. Their involvement is crucial to prevent a resurgence of extremism and ensure the agreement's effectiveness. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: India in a Time of Change with Oshrit Birvadker U.S.-India relations evolved from Cold War-era suspicion and non-alignment to a strategic partnership driven by shared concerns over China and economic opportunities, though recent tensions arise from mediation efforts in India-Pakistan conflicts, high tariffs, and perceived equalization of the two nations, prompting India to strengthen ties with China, Russia, and the EU. India and Israel share a deepening strategic partnership rooted in common histories of post-colonial challenges, partition traumas, and ongoing terrorism threats, which accelerated after 2017 into joint defense production, cyber collaboration, and technology transfers, with India providing steadfast support during Israel's recent conflicts. The emerging trilateral dynamic among the U.S., India, and Israel faces hurdles, but holds long-term potential as a pillar of the new geopolitical order. Oshrit Birvadker is a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a leading expert on India's foreign and national security policy. Recognized as Israel's first dedicated Indian policy researcher, she serves as a strategic consultant to governments and defense corporations, specializing in geopolitical risk and market entry strategies. To watch the full podcast, click here. No Home for Brown Rich Kids By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour Amidst the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the hopes of a democratic Middle East have been overshadowed by turmoil and disillusionment. Revolutionary hopes dashed: The Arab Spring began with calls for liberty but ended in state collapse, civil wars, and refugee crises. Western governments have shifted focus from promoting democracy to prioritizing stability and security agreements with regional autocrats. Alaa Abd El-Fattah's revelation: Egyptian activist Alaa Abd El-Fattah, once a beacon of the Arab Spring, has been criticized for past inflammatory statements. His case has led to reduced Western advocacy for Arab activists, impacting funding and diplomatic support. Shifting perceptions in the West: The initial enthusiasm for Arab activists has waned as ideological biases become evident, causing a reassessment of foreign policy strategies. Figures like satirist Bassem Youssef and journalist Mona Eltahawy reflect the complex narratives post-Arab Spring, prompting a focus on counterterrorism and pragmatic alliances. To read the full article, click here. Sam Westrop on the Irrelevance of the Muslim Brotherhood By: Marilyn Stern In a recent Middle East Forum Podcast, Sam Westrop, director of the MEF's Islamist Watch, warns of the underestimated power of South Asian Islamist networks in the West. Mislabeling the threat: Conservatives and analysts often misuse "Muslim Brotherhood" to describe broader Islamist movements. This tunnel vision overlooks the rising influence of South Asian groups like Deobandis, known for their fundamentalist Sunni beliefs, and Jamaat-e-Islami, a political party with radical Islamist views. Diverse Islamist landscape: While the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is fragmented, lesser-known Islamist groups wield more power. Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a Salafist group advocating for a global caliphate, and Tablighi Jamaat, a missionary organization, have gained prominence, challenging Western security policies. Policy implications: U.S. alliances with Islamist-friendly governments like Qatar complicate counterterrorism efforts. Westrop urges a reassessment of these relationships and a focus on the diverse Islamist threat beyond the Brotherhood. To read the full summary and watch the podcast, click here. Recognizing Somaliland Won't Cause War; It Will Prevent One By: Michael Rubin Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar's visit to Somaliland last month marked the first Israeli official recognition since Somaliland's re-declaration of independence in 1991. U.S. recognition stalled: Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, alongside some National Security Council members, opposes U.S. recognition of Somaliland. Their concerns include potential counterterrorism setbacks, regional destabilization, and possible conflict with Somalia. Counterarguments to concerns: Critics argue Somalia's counterterrorism cooperation is inconsistent, and Somaliland's stability undermines claims of potential terrorism. Somaliland's borders are internationally recognized, and historical precedents suggest dissolution is a return to prior status, not border redrawing. Broader implications: Failure to recognize Somaliland could embolden Somali irredentism, potentially leading to broader conflict involving Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Critics warn that delaying recognition weakens U.S. influence, allowing adversaries to exploit the situation. To read the full article, click here. Rubio and Landau Risk Oversleeping on Somaliland Opportunity By: Michael Rubin President Donald Trump's first term clarified China's status as a competitor, pushing for recalibrated U.S. policies. Somaliland's strategic importance: Recognizing Somaliland supports Taiwan against China, counters Somali influence, and aligns with U.S. interests. Somaliland offers a democratic alternative, combats terrorism, and restricts Chinese expansion in the Horn of Africa. State Department's reluctance: Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau and previous policies favored Somalia, despite its pro-China stance. The slow review process and hesitation to shift support highlight internal conflicts and missed opportunities. Urgency for change: Embracing Somaliland would enhance U.S. influence, secure rare earth resources, and reinforce alliances against Chinese expansion. Time is critical; strategic recognition could reshape regional dynamics and affirm U.S. leadership. To read the full article, click here. Somaliland Recognition Isn't the Problem. Somalia's State Failure Is By:Siyad Madey Israel's recognition of Somaliland on December 26, 2025, sparked Somali outrage, but it highlights Somalia's unresolved state failure rather than border disputes. Somaliland's functional sovereignty: Operating as a stable, self-governing entity, Somaliland conducts elections and maintains order, unlike southern Somalia. Its strategic location by the Bab el-Mandeb Strait offers geopolitical leverage, attracting interest from security-focused states. Somalia's governance challenges: Mogadishu struggles with structural incoherence, delayed elections, and economic disparities, limiting its authority. In contrast, Somaliland's historical independence and effective governance make it a preferred partner for international actors. Redefining regional stability: Recognition of functional governance over symbolic sovereignty shifts diplomatic dynamics. States prioritizing maritime stability and reliable partnerships are unlikely to be swayed by Somalia's protests, emphasizing internal reconstruction as the solution. To read the full article, click here. Will the Arabs Dare to Listen to Somaliland? By: Bashir Goth Bashir Goth, Somaliland's U.S. representative, underscores the region's historical and functional independence as the Arab League denounces recognition efforts. Historical independence: Somaliland gained independence from Britain in 1960 before entering a flawed union with Somalia, later declaring independence in 1991. The region maintains a stable, democratic governance model distinct from Somalia's chaos. Geopolitical dynamics: The Horn of Africa's strategic importance has drawn Middle Eastern security competition, with Somaliland offering stability and maritime access. Egypt opposes Somaliland's recognition, fearing shifts in regional power dynamics and potential alliances with Israel and the U.S. International perspectives: While the African Union and nations like South Africa and Nigeria consider recognition, Arab nations, led by Egypt, resist, fearing geopolitical repercussions. The U.S. and EU show interest as Somaliland's stability contrasts with Somalia's ongoing turmoil. To read the full article, click here. Algeria's Managed Elections and the Final Strangling of Political Pluralism By: Amine Ayoub With June 2026 less than half-a-year away, Algeria's military regime prepares for parliamentary elections, presenting them as progress but designed to entrench military control. Coerced political participation: The Organic Law on Political Parties mandates participation in elections to avoid dissolution, forcing opposition parties into a false choice. This law effectively silences dissent, ensuring ballots are filled with regime-approved candidates, not genuine political contenders. Suppressing opposition: New regulations impose logistical barriers on grassroots movements, sidelining veteran leaders and isolating parties from international support. Article 42 limits party leaders to two terms, fragmenting opposition and preventing coherent resistance. Internal instability and military dominance: The regime's power is secured by Army Chief Saïd Chengriha and Boualem Boualem, fostering a surveillance state and suppressing dissent. Scandals involving drug trafficking highlight corruption, overshadowing the civilian façade of the elections. To read the full article, click here. The Juridical Iron Curtain: How Algeria Is Criminalizing the West By: Amine Ayoub Algeria's "Memory Law" criminalizes French colonial rule, framing it as a crime against humanity and severing ties with the West. A strategic identity war: President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Army Chief Saïd Chengriha use the law to pivot Algeria toward authoritarian allies, away from Europe. This juridical maneuver aligns Algeria with Russia and China, reinforcing its authoritarian regime and strategic alliances. Cultural and economic shifts: Algeria's "linguicide" campaign replaces French with English, signaling a break from the Francosphere and aligning with the East. Strategic deals with China in space technology and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) membership strengthen Algeria's economic resilience against Western pressure. Security implications: Joint military exercises with Russia and integration into China's "Digital Silk Road" enhance Algeria's defense and surveillance capabilities. The law signals Algeria's transformation into a fortress state akin to Iran or North Korea, posing a challenge on NATO's southern flank. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Turkey's F-16 Deployment to Somalia Reinforces Danger of Arms Sales to Ankara By: Michael Rubin Prudence dictates no longer trusting Turkey to take ownership over any sensitive military technology. Will India and the United Arab Emirates Solidify an Anti-Turkey and Pakistan Alliance? By: Abhinav Pandya Reading between the lines, Abu Dhabi and New Delhi may be cooperating to counter the Saudi-Pakistani and possibly Turkey axis. Why 2026 Will Be a Tough Year for Middle Eastern Oil Producers By: Dalga Khatinoglu With the low oil prices projected for the year, most major Middle Eastern oil producers will face budget deficits. Thank you for your support and for relying on the Middle East Forum to help make sense of competing and often contradictory headlines. If you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch, please forward it to a friend. We invite you to use the comments feature to let us know your thoughts on this issue. Sincerely, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: Middle East Forum 1650 Market Street, Suite 3600 Philadelphia, PA 19103 Unsubscribe Powered by This email was sent by Middle East Forum via Axios HQ