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четверг, 19 марта 2026 г.

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MEF Dispatch: Will Larijani’s Death Be Enough to Make Iran Collapse?

среда, 18 марта 2026 г.

Lazar Berman writes that, while no one knows how the assassination of Ali Larijani will affect the w ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed Will Larijani's Death Be Enough to Make Iran Collapse? By Winfield Myers ● Mar 18, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...1996 words Lazar Berman writes that, while no one knows how the assassination of Ali Larijani will affect the war's outcome, Israel's ability to locate the most important figure in the Iranian regime 18 days into war is evidence of how deeply its intelligence has penetrated the most sensitive reaches of the regime. Saeid Golkar observes that the Islamic Republic has no concern for the degree of destruction or pain the war places on the country because, as long as the government survives in some form, it will declare victory. Michael Rubin argues that media panic over oil prices resulting from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz should not be allowed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by prioritizing Iranian propaganda over energy realities. Hussein Aboubakr Mansour analyzes the reshuffling of priorities among the Gulf counties—a trend that began well before the war. Also featured in this issue is the work of Shukriya Bradost, Loqman Radpey, Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez, and Umud Shokri. Larijani's Death Removes Key Pillar of Regime. Will It Be Enough to Make Iran Collapse? By: Lazar Berman Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's National Security Council, was assassinated by Israel, dealing a critical blow to Iran's leadership structure. Why it matters: This assassination has disrupted Iran's command chain, plunging the regime into an unprecedented leadership crisis. Larijani, seen as the successor to Supreme Leader Khamenei, was crucial for maintaining Iran's strategic operations and political stability. The big picture: The removal of Larijani and other key officials hinders Iran's ability to respond militarily and politically. Iran faces increased challenges both from external military pressures and growing internal dissent amidst widespread protests. What's next: Israel's deep intelligence capabilities suggest more strategic actions may follow, potentially altering Middle Eastern geopolitics. The successful targeting of such high-profile figures highlights the depth of Israel's penetration into Iran's security apparatus. Read the full article at the Times of Israel. The Islamic Republic's War Strategy: Survival at Any Cost as Victory By: Saeid Golkar On the fifteenth day of the U.S.-Israeli conflict, Iran remains intact despite heavy bombardment and leadership losses. Why it matters: Iran's strategy focuses on survival at any cost, framing endurance as victory. Even with extensive destruction, Iran aims to preserve its regime and suppress dissent to claim success. The big picture: Iran's approach draws parallels with Hamas, emphasizing ideological resilience over military triumph. By leveraging asymmetric tactics, Iran seeks to prolong the conflict, impacting global markets and public opinion. What's next: Iran's strategy involves controlling both public perception and cyberspace to assert dominance. The destruction of factories, ports, refineries, and civilian life will be treated as an acceptable price for the preservation of velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the jurist. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: The Energy War Begins: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry Israel faces nightly rocket and ballistic missile barrages from Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly Gaza, including illegal cluster munitions that have already killed civilians, while sirens force immediate sheltering. The conflict has shifted into an energy war after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, spiking global oil prices and attempting to ransom the world economy; in response, Israel and the U.S. struck key Iranian oil and gas facilities in a limited but deep attack, signaling that Iran's energy infrastructure now lies vulnerable. Targeted assassinations of senior Iranian officials, including the national security advisor and heads of repressive forces, combined with emerging chaos and desertions inside Iran, are weakening the regime, while the war strengthens Israel's regional ties and prompts the world to seek alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum's Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also been an advisor to the Negev Forum. Originally from the United Kingdom, he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya). To watch the full podcast, click here. Iran's Declining Ability to Fight Hormuz Battle By: Michael Rubin The media is fixated on oil price volatility as Iran fans panic over the Strait of Hormuz, but the threat might be more psychological than economic. Why it matters: The Strait is crucial for Iran, as it relies on it to import refined fuel due to inadequate domestic refinery capabilities. Blocking the Strait would harm Iran's economy as much as it would affect global markets. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents psychological warfare rather than a long-term, economically consequential Iranian move. The big picture: U.S. and Israeli bombardments have crippled Iran's navy, but its Revolutionary Guard still poses threats with drones and mines. While Iran's drone fleet remains a significant threat, declining missile launch rates suggest weakening military capabilities. What's next: The U.S. is likely to continue targeting Iranian military assets, aiming to restore navigation freedom in the Persian Gulf. Clearing islands occupied by the Revolutionary Guard could further reduce Iran's strategic leverage. Panicking manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by prioritizing Iranian propaganda over energy realities. To read the full article, click here. If Tehran Falls: How Iran's Collapse Reshuffles Arab Gulf Relations By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour For the better part of a year, Gulf states have adapted to a shifting strategic environment, viewing Iran as a receding hegemon. Why it matters: The systematic Israeli actions against the Axis of Resistance have diminished the Iranian threat, reshaping regional politics. The fall of Assad's Syria and the dismantling of Hezbollah's military force have allowed Gulf states to focus on competition within their ranks and with Turkey. The big picture: Saudi Arabia has repositioned itself from a conservative stakeholder to a revisionist power, recalibrating its regional alliances and rhetoric. Riyadh's strategic pivot involves consolidating relationships with Turkey and delaying normalization with Israel, reflecting a broader realignment in Gulf politics. What's next: As Iran's influence wanes, Gulf states face internal competition and external challenges, with a focus on determining the region's future leadership. The Saudi-Emirati rivalry, once subdued by a shared Iranian threat, now becomes a central axis of Gulf politics. What can be said with confidence is this: the state whose existence has organized the Middle East for four decades is dying, and its death is going to compound complexity. To read the full report at JINSA, click here. How Iranian Kurds Evolved Into a Political Force and What It Might Mean for Iran's Future By: Shukriya Bradost Kurdish movements, with long-standing opposition networks, remain a significant force in Iran's political landscape. Why it matters: Their organized structures and historical resilience position them as influential players in potential political transitions. Kurdish groups have a deep history, with networks extending into Iraqi Kurdistan and beyond, providing them with unique strategic advantages. The big picture: Despite the challenges, Kurdish parties have shifted focus from armed struggle to political organization and civil activism. This evolution connects Kurdish demands with broader calls for democracy and political rights across Iran. What's next: Recent coalitions among Kurdish parties aim to coordinate politically and militarily, emphasizing Kurdish self-governance within a democratic Iran. While Kurdish forces face limitations, their ability to mobilize and sustain influence in Iran's political arena remains noteworthy. To read the full article, click here. How the Kurds Should Deal with the United States Against Iran By: Loqman Radpey As the war against Iran's Islamic Republic progresses, Kurdish forces face a pivotal decision to engage, while remaining cautious due to historical betrayals. Why it matters: The Kurdish experience with the U.S. has been marked by cycles of cooperation and abandonment, making them wary of new alliances. While Kurdish forces could play a key role in a popular uprising, they demand clear agreements to protect their interests and avoid future betrayals. The big picture: A successful Kurdish operation would require international support, like establishing a no-fly zone, to ensure security against Iranian retaliation. Drawing lessons from past experiences, Kurds focus on their national interests, avoiding overcommitment to liberate non-Kurdish areas in Iran. What's next: Both the U.S. and Kurdish leaders must prioritize strategic partnerships, ensuring genuine cooperation that aligns with long-term regional stability. Washington's consistent support could transform Kurdish cooperation into a lasting investment in Middle Eastern peace and security. To read the full article, click here. The British Have Voided Any Reason to Retain Sovereign Bases in Cyprus By: Michael Rubin Just after midnight on March 2, 2026, an Iranian drone struck the British RAF base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, raising questions about the U.K.'s continued presence there. Why it matters: The British bases in Cyprus, remnants of colonial times, are increasingly seen as unnecessary in the current geopolitical climate. With the U.K.'s strategic focus shifting post-Brexit, its role in Cyprus is under scrutiny, especially as European allies like France show more support for Cyprus than the U.K. The big picture: Historical agreements allowed the U.K. to retain control over Akrotiri and Dhekelia, but changing political dynamics challenge their relevance. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's recent decisions highlight the diminishing strategic need for British bases, as support for Cyprus wavers. What's next: Calls grow for Cyprus to assert sovereignty over its territory, suggesting the U.S. could lease the bases instead, aligning with practices in Spain and Greece. Defining the U.K. as an occupying power alongside Turkey could reshape Cyprus's future and regional alliances. To read the full article, click here. Iran Built a Cocaine-Drone Corridor in Bolivia. Washington Looked Away By: Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez As Iran's regime potentially shifts, uprooting its global proxy network becomes crucial, especially in Bolivia, where a covert logistics corridor supports illicit activities. Why it matters: Bolivia's strategic location and permissive counterintelligence environment enable Iran's expanded influence in the region. Through cocaine trafficking and financial channels, Iran sustains operations that pose direct implications for U.S. homeland security. The big picture: Intelligence, logistics, and criminal networks converge in Bolivia, enabling sustained Iranian diplomatic and intelligence activity. With the involvement of other countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua, the network extends its reach while maintaining a low profile. What's next: The election of a new centrist president in Bolivia may open avenues for U.S. cooperation and rebalancing. However, without sustained pressure, Iran's operational system remains intact, necessitating policy alignment to address these intertwined threats effectively. To read the full article, click here. India's Pivot to Russian Crude Amid Middle East Turmoil By: Umud Shokri Escalating tensions in the Middle East are reshaping global oil markets, prompting India to purchase 30 million barrels of Russian crude under a U.S. sanctions waiver. Why it matters: This illustrates the complex balance between sanctions enforcement and maintaining global market stability. The waiver, addressing stranded shipments, highlights the dilemma of limiting Russian energy revenues while avoiding supply shocks. The big picture: India's reliance on Russian oil surged after Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, driven by discounted prices and geopolitical shifts. As global tensions persist, India's strategic pivot to Russian crude underscores vulnerabilities in its energy supply chain. What's next: The waiver, expiring on April 4, 2026, presents a window for diplomatic de-escalation and market adjustment. If tensions persist, additional waivers or policy shifts may be necessary to maintain market stability and support India's energy strategy. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Small, Divided and Wary, Kurdish Rebels Won't Be the Ones Bringing Down Iran's Regime By: Lazar Berman Iran's Kurdish armed groups remain too fragmented, cautious and constrained to shape the war's outcome. Why the Iran-Israel War Matters for the World's Helium Supply By: Umud Shokri Helium is vital to semiconductor manufacturing, aerospace industries, and medical infrastructure such as MRI scanners. The Iran-Brotherhood Nexus and the Global Threat to Energy Security By: Amine Ayoub Washington has now connected the entire transnational network and exposed its operational core in Khartoum. Iran's Religious and Ideological Propaganda Machine in Latin America By: Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez Since the 1980s, Iran's influence networks have embedded Tehran within the hemisphere's political and informational terrain. As the war continues, the Middle East Forum provides ongoing updates at https://www.meforum.org/. Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch, and please share your thoughts on this issue in the comments. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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