MEF Dispatch: Iran’s Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Is Destined to Fail

пятница, 13 марта 2026 г.

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View on web  |  Read what you missed Iran's Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Is Destined to Fail By Winfield Myers ● Mar 13, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...1952 words Michael Rubin writes that, despite the widespread panic in the media and elsewhere over Iran's actions in the Strait, the Islamic Republic's efforts will fail. Iran cannot sustain the blockade because of its need for gasoline imports and its limited number of ports. Mardo Soghom provides updates on the persistent questions about Iran's leadership and the latest drone strikes against the regime's security forces. Saeid Golkar and Amatzia Baram each contribute detailed analyses of Iran's emerging leadership, with Golkar seeing signs of political exhaustion. Jonathan Spyer says that the current conflict is part of Iran's long war strategy dating from 1979 that seeks Israel's destruction and more. Israel isn't looking for an off-ramp, and if the regime survives, Israel will seek to weaken it as much as possible, realizing that this is likely not the war's final chapter. Also included are three more articles by Michael Rubin, plus the work of Umud Shokri and Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez. Iran's Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Is Destined to Fail By: Michael Rubin Oil prices have surged over $90 per barrel, with gasoline prices jumping up to 40 cents a gallon. Iran's statement hinting at leveraging the Strait of Hormuz blockade has sparked concern. Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil, and disruptions can significantly impact prices. Media reports have exaggerated recent attacks as directly linked to Hormuz, despite incidents occurring 350 miles away. The big picture: Iran's playbook isn't new. The Revolutionary Guard's attempts to close the strait date back decades, with historical precedents of U.S. military responses. Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 saw U.S. forces retaliate against Iranian aggression, leading to a rapid drop in oil prices. What's next: Iran's strategy is unsustainable due to its reliance on imported gasoline and limited port infrastructure. U.S. and Gulf states' strategic responses, including potential island clearances, could mitigate threats and ensure navigation freedom. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a problem, but not one that is either permanent or on the same level as the Islamic Republic's nuclear, missile, and drone program, or its support for proxies. To read the full article, click here. Tehran Relies on Hormuz Threat as Uncertainty over War and Iran's Leadership Deepens By: Mardo Soghom On March 12, 2026, Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared the continuation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting hundreds of stranded oil tankers. Why it matters: The closure of this critical waterway affects global oil markets, with financial sectors reacting to perceived risks. Iran's threat remains a key leverage point despite heavy military losses, maintaining its ability to disrupt through limited missile capabilities. Strategic shifts: With Tehran's capabilities diminished, speculation arises about leadership relocation to Mashhad, suggesting new potential targets. Mashhad's location, far from American and Israeli aircraft, might signal a strategic repositioning of Iran's leadership. Leadership uncertainties: Questions surround Mojtaba Khamenei's health and legitimacy—or even if he is alive—following inconsistencies in public statements. Doubts persist over the authorship of his recent statement, pointing to possible internal power struggles. To read the full article, click here. Drones Target Regime Forces in Tehran as Questions Remain About Who Is Running Iran By: Mardo Soghom On March 11, 2026, drone attacks targeted Iranian security forces in Tehran, signaling a shift in the Israeli-American conflict against Iran's regime. Why it matters: The strikes directly challenge the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij units that violently suppressed protests in January. Tehran residents report multiple checkpoints hit, with hospitals filled with wounded Basij members. Regime vulnerability: The attacks expose the regime's weakened state and its reliance on intimidation tactics to maintain control. The Basij now carry guns, posing increased danger to civilians challenging the authorities. Leadership crisis: Uncertainty surrounds the regime's leadership, with speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and the power struggle within Tehran. The regime continues to leverage global energy market turmoil to pressure the U.S. into halting the air campaign. To read the full article, click here. Mojtaba's Selection Is a Sign of Political Exhaustion By: Saeid Golkar Nine days after Israeli and American airstrikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba was announced as Iran's new supreme leader. Why it matters: Mojtaba's appointment is a turning point, emphasizing regime continuity over renewal. His leadership solidifies the Islamic Republic's ideological stance, maintaining a hard-line approach with deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Shadow influence: Mojtaba has wielded power from behind the scenes for decades, shaping Iran's political landscape without direct accountability. His role in suppressing past protests highlights his influence and the regime's reliance on coercion over reform. Regime's gamble: The leadership transition aims to consolidate power and reassure hard-liners amidst Iran's existential crisis. However, it risks further alienating the populace, who view Mojtaba as a symbol of repression and unyielding regime tactics. To read the full article, click here. Revolutionary Guards Take the Reins in Iran By: Amatzia Baram Following the death of Iran's supreme leader, control shifted to the IRGC and political figures Ali Larijani and Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf. Why it matters: This power transition cements the IRGC's grip on Iran, influencing both domestic and foreign policy. Khamenei's legacy of pragmatic extremism persists, but the Guards' sway suggests a continuation of unyielding policies. Clerical appeasement: Historically, Khamenei engaged in tactical flexibility, like the 2015 nuclear deal, to appease hardliners. The IRGC's influence may sideline such strategies, favoring direct confrontation over negotiation. Scenarios ahead: Iran's future hinges on its ability to navigate internal and external pressures, with potential outcomes ranging from ceasefire to prolonged conflict. The regime's resilience may withstand challenges, but economic strains and public dissent remain critical threats to stability. To read the full article, click here. Has the United Arab Emirates Forfeited Its Claims to Abu Musa and the Tonbs? By: Michael Rubin On November 30, 1971, as British forces withdrew, Iran's military seized Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tonb Islands, solidifying claims over these strategic locations. Why it matters: Control over these islands influences navigation and energy security in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran maintains a military presence on the islands, asserting strategic dominance in the region. Historical claims: Iran insists on sovereignty, citing linguistic and political arguments, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seeks resolution through international adjudication. Both the monarchy and Islamic Republic have viewed the islands as inherently Iranian, impacting regional diplomacy. Escalating tensions: Iran has launched attacks on the UAE, targeting Dubai and Abu Dhabi with rockets and drones. The UAE faces the decision to reclaim the islands militarily or seek international support. Tehran refuses international mediation, leaving the islands' status unresolved and threatening regional stability. To read the full article, click here. Calculus for Israel Is Different: Jewish Nation's Survival Depends on Reducing Iran's Lethal Capacity By: Jonathan Spyer Israel remains steadfast as Iranian and Hezbollah missiles continue to target its cities, highlighting the nation's resilience. Why it matters: Despite ongoing missile threats, Israeli domestic support for the conflict is unwavering, showcasing national unity. Israel's air defenses are effectively intercepting threats, maintaining public confidence and governmental determination. War context: This conflict is part of a prolonged regional power struggle, with Iran aiming for dominance through proxies and missile programs. The Israeli strategy focuses on degrading Iranian military capacities while strengthening regional alliances. Strategic implications: The U.S. and Israel are strategically targeting Iran's military infrastructure to weaken its influence without direct ground involvement. By focusing on the Revolutionary Guard and missile sites, Israel seeks to disrupt Iran's capacity to assert regional control and inspire internal dissent, aiming for long-term regional stability. To read the full article, click here. With its Attack on Nakhchivan, Iran Sends Message to Azerbaijan and Israel By: Umud Shokri On March 5, 2026, Iranian drones struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave, signaling Tehran's intent to escalate tensions with Israel and the U.S. Why it matters: The attack underscores Iran's warning to Azerbaijan about its security ties with Israel, exposing vulnerabilities in Azerbaijan's infrastructure. Tehran denied responsibility, suggesting a false-flag operation, yet maintains plausible deniability while applying military pressure. Strategic positioning: Nakhchivan's location allows Iran to demonstrate military reach without direct confrontation with Azerbaijan's main territory. The exclave's geography limits Azerbaijan's defensive capabilities, highlighting its strategic importance. Regional implications: Azerbaijan's strengthened ties with Turkey and Israel, alongside Iranian fears of separatism, fuel regional instability. Potential Turkish involvement and broader energy infrastructure risks could escalate tensions further. To read the full article, click here. How Will the Islamic Republic Retaliate Once the Guns Go Silent? By: Michael Rubin The top layer of Iran's leadership has been decimated, yet the regime's ideology persists, threatening both regional and Western stability. Why it matters: Reports of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sleeper cells in the U.S. and Europe suggest potential terror threats reminiscent of the 1980s. The regime's ideological commitment drives potential insurgency and terrorism, even without its top leaders. Strategic moves: President Trump's reliance on regime figures for a provisional authority overlooks the IRGC's deep-rooted ideology. Missteps could empower IRGC elements, leading to continued insurgency and terror activities. Counterterrorism challenges: The IRGC's history of recruiting non-Iranians for terror complicates U.S. counterterrorism efforts. The regime exploits international criminal networks, making it difficult to detect and prevent potential attacks on American soil. To read the full article, click here. The Three Crises in Shi'ism Today That the Iran War Exposes By: Michael Rubin Shi'ite religious leaders are navigating three crises, challenging traditional Shi'ism akin to Khomeini's 1979 revolution. Why it matters: The ideological rift between velayat-e faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist, advocating clerical political control) and traditional Shi'ism poses a legitimacy crisis for Iran's leadership. This schism undermines the traditional separation of mosque and state, causing internal dissent and loss of faith among young Iranians. Mojtaba Khamenei's ascent: The lack of religious credentials in Mojtaba's rise questions the meritocracy within Shi'ite hierarchy. His succession symbolizes the political overreach into religious scholarship, threatening traditional Shi'ite values. Sistani's influence: Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, a leading Shi'ite authority in Najaf, Iraq, is respected for advocating peace and traditional religious values. As his health wanes, questions arise about the authenticity of his stances. If his son manipulates Sistani's authority, it risks aligning traditional Shi'ism with political agendas, furthering internal divisions. To read the full article, click here. Iran's Terror Pipeline at America's Border By: Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez Washington's distinction between cartels and terrorism is a convenient fiction, as Latin America shows the intersection of the two. Why it matters: Terrorism thrives on infrastructure, and parts of Latin America supply crucial components like financing and logistics. Hezbollah-linked networks exploit trade-based money laundering and weak enforcement in the Tri-Border Area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Venezuelan connections: Caracas provides state-enabled logistics, issuing passports through opaque channels and facilitating covert operations. Mahan Air's Tehran-Caracas route highlights concerns over potential covert cargo and passenger flows. Operational ecosystem: Terror groups leverage cartel-controlled corridors for logistics, placing hostile networks close to the U.S. The hemisphere functions as a logistics marketplace where criminal and terrorist networks intersect and expand, enabling proxy warfare. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Why Has Iran Not Reached Its Tipping Point? By: Mariwan R. Hama Many Iranians May see the ongoing U.S.-Israel military operation as an attack on their nation and their Faith. The End of Qatari Exceptionalism By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour Can Qatar shed Islamism? A New al-Qaeda Affiliate in Iraq and Syria? By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi A purported new group raises questions about al-Qaeda's reach in Iraq and Syria. Israel Must Stop Damascus from Absorbing Sweida By: Amine Ayoub Damascus's plan for Sweida could reshape Israel's northern frontier. Thank you for relying on the Middle East Forum for up-to-date analyses and reporting on the war with Iran. If you enjoyed this issue of the MEF Dispatch, please forward it to a friend. We invite you to use the comments feature to let us know your thoughts on this issue. Sincerely, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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