MEF Dispatch: Thirty-Nine Days of Fire

среда, 8 апреля 2026 г.

Gregg Roman provides an in-depth analysis of the war with Iran. There is, he writes, only the questi ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed Thirty-Nine Days of Fire By Winfield Myers ● Apr 08, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 7 mins...1830 words Gregg Roman provides an in-depth analysis of the war with Iran. There is, he writes, only the question of whether the space that destruction created is used for construction, or whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reconsolidates while the world argues about oil prices and competing victory narratives. Both sides are already positioning for the next round, while the war in Lebanon continues. Jonathan Spyer warns that the U.S. and Israel have not yet demonstrated the capacity to turn their military advantage into a strategy able to topple the Tehran regime—the only way this conflict will end. Mardo Soghom reports that Iran is claiming victory even though poverty, high inflation, and the lack of effective governance will likely get worse amid the threat of additional popular protests. Michael Rubin argues that, contrary to the claims of 100 legal scholars, President Trump is not committing war crimes in Iran. The charge is, he says, ignorant, hypocritical, and overblown. We also feature the work of Saeid Golkar, Dalga Khatinoglu, Elliot Nazar, Umud Shokri, and Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez. Thirty-Nine Days of Fire By: Gregg Roman The war began unexpectedly on a Saturday with B-2 stealth bombers and Israeli F-35s executing a precision strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Why it matters: The swift military action by the U.S. and Israel marked a significant escalation, targeting key figures and infrastructure in Iran. Within 39 days, the allies struck over 11,000 targets, severely degrading Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities. Ceasefire declared: President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, labeling it a “complete and total victory,” despite ongoing regional tensions. Iranian officials declared the U.S. had “surrendered,” while Israel continued operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Economic shockwaves: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the worst global energy crisis in half a century, with oil prices soaring. Financial markets reacted swiftly, and the global economic impact is anticipated to be long-lasting. Negotiations set: The Islamabad talks open April 10. The two-week clock is ticking. Each side is telling its domestic audience a story incompatible with the story being told across the table. The Islamabad talks will collide with these narratives on April 10, and something will have to give. To read the full article, click here. Secure Your Spot: The 2026 Middle East Forum Policy Conference Join us in Washington, D.C., from May 19-21, 2026, for the Middle East Forum's exclusive Policy Conference as we navigate the turbulent aftermath of the Iran war and its regional shockwaves. This private gathering will tackle today's most pressing geopolitical challenges, featuring in-depth analyses of Turkey's shifting influence and the vital future of the U.S.-Israel relationship. We will also confront the rising threat of domestic Islamists, equipping attendees with the strategic insights needed to counter these interconnected issues. Click here to secure your spot for America the Unpredictable and access our special hotel block before the May 1st RSVP deadline. The Winners and Losers of the Iran Ceasefire Deal By: Jonathan Spyer The abrupt announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran leaves many issues unresolved. Why it matters: Iran remains a formidable power with ambitions to expel the U.S. from the region and dominate the Gulf states. Despite setbacks, Iran’s intentions and aggressive posture continue to pose significant challenges to regional stability. Israel’s perspective: The Iranian regime’s capabilities have been weakened, but its leadership and intentions remain largely intact. Israel is focused on using the opportunity to secure its northern border from Hezbollah threats. Strait of Hormuz dynamics: Iran’s control over transit fees in Hormuz marks a strategic gain, impacting global economics. Tehran’s concession to a temporary ceasefire underlines its tactical gains despite the ongoing regional tensions. Strategic outlook: Israel and the U.S. have demonstrated their vast conventional military advantage over the Iranians. They have also not yet demonstrated the capacity to turn that advantage into a strategy able to bring the struggle to a successful strategic conclusion by toppling the Tehran regime—the only way that this will end. To read the full article, click here. Iran Claims Victory as Ceasefire Offers No Reprieve for Tehran By: Mardo Soghom Iran’s leaders are lauding a self-declared victory over the U.S. following a two-week ceasefire agreement. Why it matters: Despite the Iranian regime’s celebrations, the U.S. and Israel have inflicted severe damage on Iran’s military and infrastructure. Iranian officials claim the ceasefire reflects a “crushing defeat” for the U.S., yet Tehran faces significant economic challenges and infrastructure losses. Economic strain intensifies: Iran’s economy is grappling with the aftermath of extensive military strikes and pre-existing financial woes. The two-week ceasefire offers little relief, as Tehran urgently needs a lasting agreement with Washington to alleviate sanctions and boost oil exports. Military and regional dynamics: Ongoing missile and drone exchanges highlight persistent tensions, even as global markets react positively to the ceasefire. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic lever, with implications for international trade and energy security. To read the full article, click here. No, Trump Is Not Committing War Crimes in Iran By: Michael Rubin A group of legal scholars has accused President Trump of potential war crimes for his threats against Iranian infrastructure, but their argument overlooks critical realities. Why it matters: These scholars‘ charges ignore the complexity of Iran’s entanglement with its Revolutionary Guard and the broader historical context. The critique fails to acknowledge that Iran’s power plants, threatened by Trump, are under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, making them legitimate military targets. Hypocrisy in focus: The scholars’ selective outrage disregards Iran’s own record of regional aggression and human rights abuses. Historical chants of “death to America” and support for terrorism across the Middle East are conveniently overlooked in their critique. Legal principles at risk: The scholars‘ politically motivated rhetoric risks undermining international humanitarian law rather than reinforcing it. By focusing narrowly on Trump’s statements, they miss the broader implications of Iran’s actions and its impact on regional stability. To read the full article, click here. The Challenges of a Nuclear Deal with Iran By: Saeid Golkar As Washington eyes a potential agreement with Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, the strategic landscape shifts. Why it matters: While a deal may seem like a diplomatic triumph, it risks overlooking the deeper issues sustaining the Iranian regime’s power. Iran’s tactical shift away from nuclear ambitions towards leveraging missiles, drones, and proxies highlights a strategic recalibration rather than a genuine concession. Economic relief risks: Sanctions easing could inadvertently fortify Iran’s non-nuclear capabilities, bolstering its regional influence and internal repression. Previous deals failed to moderate Iran’s behavior, instead empowering the Revolutionary Guard and expanding regional aggression. Focus beyond enrichment: The U.S. must target the financial networks propping up Iran’s security apparatus and enhance regional defenses. Sustainable peace hinges on political change within Iran, as current policies only perpetuate the cycle of crisis and aggression. To read the full article, click here. The Economic Consequences of Targeting Iran’s Steel, Infrastructure, and Petrochemicals By: Dalga Khatinoglu Israel’s latest wave of strikes has shifted focus from military to key economic infrastructure, marking a significant escalation. Why it matters: The strikes on Iran’s steel, petrochemical, and transportation hubs aim to cripple its industrial development and economic resilience. By targeting facilities like the South Pars Gas Field and Mahshahr petrochemical plants, Israel signals a move towards economic warfare. Strategic impacts: The attacks on major infrastructure are designed to degrade Iran’s long-term economic capacity. Industries heavily tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, like steel and petrochemicals, are particularly affected, highlighting the strategic nature of these strikes. Economic consequences: Iran’s economic pillars, once symbols of growth, now face substantial damage, affecting their ability to generate key export revenues. The campaign’s focus on high-profile targets underscores its intent to weaken Iran’s economic foundation and industrial output. To read the full article, click here. Time to Crack Down on Iran’s Kangaroo Courts By: Elliot Nazar Despite significant military setbacks, Iran’s regime continues to suppress opposition using its judiciary as a tool of fear. Why it matters: The Islamic Republic’s judiciary enforces the regime’s ideology, issuing harsh sentences against political dissidents and human rights activists. By targeting judicial figures like Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i and infrastructure, the U.S. and Israel can disrupt a core pillar of repression. Strategic shift: The judiciary’s hardline courts, known for closed trials and predetermined verdicts, are central to maintaining regime control. Striking courthouses and deploying forces to liberate prisoners could embolden domestic opposition and strain the regime’s enforcement capacity. Long-term impact: Removing the judiciary’s power would dismantle a mechanism of terror, giving ordinary Iranians a chance to resist the regime’s oppressive grip. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu can show their commitment to supporting Iranians by prioritizing these efforts. To read the full article, click here. Will War Push Turkey’s Fragile Economy over the Edge? By: Umud Shokri Turkey faces a critical energy challenge as the conflict with Iran exposes its heavy reliance on imported energy. Why it matters: With 90 percent of its energy imported, Turkey is vulnerable to disruptions and price surges, impacting its economic stability. The war has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, straining Turkey’s current account and fueling inflation. Economic strain: Rising energy costs are forcing Ankara to consider politically sensitive measures like increasing electricity and gas prices. These adjustments could ease fiscal pressure but risk elevating inflation and public dissatisfaction. Strategic pivot: Turkey is accelerating energy diversification, focusing on renewables and domestic production to reduce reliance on imports. Without structural reform, Turkey will remain exposed to external shocks, managed but not resolved by reactive policymaking. To read the full article, click here. Iran’s Mafia Hit Squads and Tehran’s Hybrid War on the West’s Streets By: Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez The attack on Alejo Vidal-Quadras, a former Spanish vice president of the European Parliament, highlights Iran’s use of criminal networks to target its adversaries. He was walking along a Madrid sidewalk after attending Mass when a scooter pulled up behind him and a gunman fired a single 9mm round into his face. He survived, but was seriously injured. Why it matters: Iran’s regime employs gangs to carry out attacks, exploiting Europe’s gang wars while avoiding direct accountability. Tehran’s strategy involves paying criminal organizations to execute high-profile assassinations and kidnappings, posing a direct threat to Western security and sovereignty. Criminal networks at play: Iran’s partnerships with groups like the Mocro Mafia and the “Kurdish Fox” network facilitate a range of operations, from targeted killings to attacks on Jewish sites. These networks provide Tehran with deniable terror infrastructure, while benefiting from narcotics trafficking and money laundering. Western response needed: Despite condemnations, European sanctions remain insufficient to counter Iran’s hybrid warfare tactics effectively. The Vidal-Quadras case exemplifies the need for a robust response from Western governments to protect their citizens and uphold sovereignty. To read the full article, click here. Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch. As we enter a two-week ceasefire with Iran, the Middle East Forum will provide a steady stream of analyses and updates at https://www.meforum.org/. Please share your thoughts on this issue in the comments. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? 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