MEF Dispatch: Israel Can’t Assassinate Its Way to Victory over Iran

пятница, 20 марта 2026 г.

Jonathan Spyer writes that Israel's assassination of Iranian leaders marks the first time any countr ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed Israel Can't Assassinate Its Way to Victory over Iran By Winfield Myers ● Mar 20, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 6.5 mins...1696 words Jonathan Spyer writes that Israel's assassination of Iranian leaders marks the first time any country has pursued an ongoing and systematic campaign of targeted assassinations of senior enemy officials against a state at a time of war. While it is unlikely to completely destroy the regime, it does indicate that the borders between regular and irregular warfare, and between "conventional" war and insurgency, appear to be disappearing. Mardo Soghom reports that, while domestically the regime in Tehran is growing fragile, it can still launch attacks against its neighbors and Israel. Many Iranians, he says, hope that Israel has further surprises in the coming weeks to enable Iranians to challenge the regime. In two articles, Spyer analyzes Israel's push into Lebanon and the peace talks between the two countries; Aaron J. Shuster and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi also weigh in on Lebanon. This issue also features the work of Marilyn Stern and Abdulmajeed Zubah. Israel Can't Assassinate Its Way to Victory over Iran By: Jonathan Spyer The recent assassination of Iranian security official Ali Larijani marks a pivotal moment in modern warfare tactics. Historical precedent: Israel's strategic assassinations began with the early Zionist movement, evolving through key conflicts. Previously absent during major Arab-Israeli wars, these tactics reemerged to address irregular warfare challenges, notably against the PLO in the 70s and 80s. Current campaign: Targeting Iranian officials represents a novel application of these tactics against a state. With over 30 senior Iranian figures eliminated, including IRGC commanders, the campaign signifies a shift in strategic warfare methods. Strategic implications: The blurring lines between conventional and irregular warfare signal a new era of conflict. The regime won't be destroyed by this tactic. On the other hand, as one tool in a well-stocked toolbox, Israel has used the tactic to telling effect in the past and is doing so now. To read the full article, click here. Iran's Domestic Fragility Contrasts with Ability to Disrupt Global Markets By: Mardo Soghom Iran intensified attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, sending global markets into turmoil. Market volatility: Energy prices skyrocketed as Iran targeted key oil facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Oil prices surged to $113–$115 per barrel, while global equity markets, including the Dow, faced significant declines. Strategic maneuvers: Tehran's actions reflect a calculated escalation to leverage its strategic assets amid regional conflict. Despite internal pressures, Iran's command structure remains functional, enabling swift retaliatory strikes. Internal unrest: Social media reports indicate disarray among Iranian security forces, exacerbated by Israeli pressure. Anti-government sentiment grows, with signs of declining morale and potential divisions within the ranks. To read the full article, click here. Why Israel Is Pushing Further Into Lebanon By: Jonathan Spyer Israel launched a limited ground operation in southern Lebanon to extend its buffer zone amid ongoing conflict. Operation details: The IDF aims to secure 13 new positions north of the border, intensifying efforts against Hezbollah. As Israeli forces advance, Hezbollah continues to fire on northern Israeli communities, causing casualties on both sides. Historical context: The issue of Lebanese sovereignty and non-state military use has persisted since the late 1960s. Despite past conflicts, the absence of a strong state presence allows Hezbollah to dominate with Iranian support. Strategic shift: Israel's latest strategy emphasizes physical control over deterrence, seeking measurable security outcomes. It is a limited and carefully calibrated operation predicated on the unfortunate and probably accurate assumption that this round of fighting for Israel in Lebanon is probably not the last. To read the full article, click here. Beirut-Jerusalem Peace Talks Plans Rest on an Old Fiction: Lebanese Sovereignty By: Jonathan Spyer Recent reports suggest direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon may soon commence, driven by a French initiative. Negotiation goals: The talks aim for a non-aggression declaration, with Lebanon initially recognizing Israel. Despite France's denial, mediation efforts continue, focusing on Lebanon's commitment to respect Israel's sovereignty. Regional context: The backdrop of these talks is the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. Hezbollah's missile and drone attacks from Lebanon have provoked Israeli airstrikes and border expansion efforts. Sovereignty challenges: Lebanon lacks true sovereignty; Hezbollah acts as a state within a state, driven by Iranian interests. The Lebanese government is unable to disarm Hezbollah, allowing Iran's influence to persist and destabilize regional peace efforts. To read the full article, click here. A Diplomatic Opening—or a Tactical Pause? By: Aaron J. Shuster Reports suggest Israel and Lebanon may enter direct talks, generating cautious optimism amid ongoing tension with Hezbollah. Limited scope: The talks, encouraged by Washington, focus on border stability rather than comprehensive normalization. Diplomatic engagement acts as a management tool, not a resolution, constrained by Hezbollah's influence over Lebanon. Historical context: Previous engagement attempts highlight the difficulty of achieving lasting change. The 1980s showed that internal fragmentation and external pressures easily undo tactical diplomatic efforts. Cautious interpretation: The risk lies in overestimating these talks as a strategic shift. Incremental progress may reduce immediate tensions but won't resolve the foundational issues between Israel and Lebanon, as Hezbollah remains entrenched. To read the full article, click here. Hezbollah and the New Escalation on the Lebanon Front: Interview By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi In contrast to the '12-Day War', Hezbollah reopens a front against Israel amid a joint U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi conducted a 8 March interview with one Hezbollah supporter in Lebanon—Houssein Tarshishi—regarding the escalation and Hezbollah's thinking and positioning. Ceasefire dynamics: Despite a ceasefire, Israel's strikes continue as Hezbollah refuses full disarmament. Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi highlights Hezbollah's ideological stakes and the futility of partial disarmament. Hezbollah's position: Hezbollah maintains resistance ideology, rejecting disarmament despite Lebanese government pressure. Supporters like Houssein Tarshishi emphasize unwavering commitment to resistance and liberation goals. Regional implications: Hezbollah's defiance underscores Lebanon's internal divisions and challenges diplomatic resolutions. The group's actions continue to influence Lebanon's political landscape and regional stability. To read the full article and interview, click here. As the West Embraces 'Technocracy,' Will Hamas Follow Hezbollah's Model? By: Aaron J. Shuster Calls for a technocratic government in Gaza aim to stabilize the region post-war, avoiding Israeli reoccupation and Hamas rule. Underlying issue: Armed groups like Hamas rarely relinquish control simply because civilian administrators are appointed. Hamas may emulate Hezbollah's model in Lebanon, maintaining power through bureaucratic structures and internal security networks. Structural flaw: A technocratic government risks operating under constraints set by Hamas, preserving its influence. Without disarmament or a robust enforcement mechanism, the shadow command structure remains intact, risking future conflict. Appeal vs. reality: While promising stability, such governance might entrench Hamas's power, creating only superficial change. The international community may prioritize short-term stability, sidelining necessary disarmament and leaving coercive capacities unaddressed. To read the full article, click here. Elder of Ziyon: The New Palestinian Constitution Makes Peace Illegal By: Marilyn Stern In a recent Middle East Forum Podcast, Elder of Ziyon critiqued the draft Palestinian constitution, warning it enshrines conflict and makes peace illegal. Constitutional issues: The draft constitution aligns with the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) 1988 covenant, claiming land from "river to sea." It allows the PLO to retain power over armed groups, undermining democratic benchmarks set by Western supporters. Power dynamics: The document positions the PLO above the state, embedding permanent conflict in its governance structure. It fails to moderate military postures, as seen with Hezbollah's model in Lebanon, maintaining parallel command structures. Western oversight: Western nations' eagerness to recognize a state overlooks foundational issues. By accepting this constitution, they inadvertently support a framework for ongoing conflict rather than resolution. To read the full summary and watch the podcast, click here. The Houthis Prepare to Enter the War By: Abdulmajeed Zubah As the U.S. and Israel engage with Iran, the Houthis in Yemen are strategically positioning to influence the conflict's trajectory. Strategic readiness: The Houthis control key coastal areas, preparing for impactful engagements. Their strategy leverages visible preparations, signaling intent to disrupt maritime and energy routes without direct major power confrontation. Military maneuvers: Capabilities are redistributed across fortified positions for resilience against strikes. Missile and drone launchers are moved to mountainous areas, enhancing reconnaissance and targeting over the Red Sea. Maritime focus: The most likely scenario for Houthi engagement will be limited and intermittent escalation, focusing on targeting vessels passing through maritime corridors while seeking to avoid direct confrontation with major powers. This could involve repeated strikes on shipping lanes using low-cost boats and unmanned maritime vehicles. A broader escalation targeting strategic land or naval assets is less probable. To read the full article, click here. Yemen on the Edge of a Regional War By: Abdulmajeed Zubah As Middle East tensions escalate, Yemenis fear the potential for their country to become a central battleground once more. Houthi calculations: The group's restraint may reflect tactical patience rather than permanent disengagement. Yemen's strategic location and past military setbacks influence Houthi decisions, potentially aligning with broader regional dynamics. Economic and humanitarian impact: Years of conflict have weakened Yemen's institutions and economy, exacerbating its humanitarian crisis. Any escalation risks deepening these challenges and affecting international shipping lanes. Strategic ambiguity: The Houthis' lack of clear commitment allows them flexibility in their response to regional developments. Their decision to engage will depend on the perceived advantages of entering a broader conflict. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: The Media Should Not Call Mojtaba Khamenei 'Ayatollah' By: Shay Khatiri Mojtaba is a fraud under the Islamic Republic's constitution, which sets "Grand Ayatollah" as the full rank for the supreme leader. The Salalah Port Attack: Alienating Oman and Dooming the Resistance Axis By: Amine Ayoub Iran shattered the cultivated myth of Omani exceptionalism, the diplomatic card Tehran played for decades to shield itself from total Gulf isolation. Madrid Bashes Israel, but Spain Is the Colonial Power By: Michael Rubin Spain runs colonies across the Strait of Gibraltar on the northern coast of Morocco. Coastal Alawite Perspectives: Interview with a Media Activist By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Not all Alawite experiences on the coast are uniformly bad. Some Alawite localities have enjoyed an overall better relation with the new authorities. A New al-Qaeda Affiliate in Iraq and Syria? By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi A purported new group raises questions about al-Qaeda's reach in Iraq and Syria. Thank you for reading the MEF Dispatch. The Middle East Forum provides ongoing updates of events in Iran, Israel, and beyond at https://www.meforum.org/. Please share your thoughts on this issue in the comments. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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