MEF Dispatch: Fears Grow Among Iranians as U.S. Weighs Talks with Tehran

среда, 4 февраля 2026 г.

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View on web  |  Read what you missed Fears Grow Among Iranians as U.S. Weighs Talks with Tehran; Eastern Med Update By Winfield Myers ● Feb 04, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 6.5 mins...1730 words Mardo Soghom reports that many Iranians fear that renewed United States negotiations with Tehran will leave the weakened regime in a position to recover its strength and continue its brutal crackdown on protesters. Soghom also argues that, Islamic regime bluster notwithstanding, Iran has little chance of successfully targeting a U.S. carrier strike group. In three articles, Nicoletta Kouroushi analyzes Greek-Turkish dialogue as well as Cyprus's growing importance to the U.S. and EU. Turning to Turkey, Michael Rubin writes that, should the Iranian regime survive despite its slaughter of its own citizens, Turkish President Erdoğan is likely to emulate that brutality if and when his own corrupt and failing regime is threatened by oppressed Turks. We end with four articles by Abdullah Bozkurt detailing Turkey's ongoing machinations, including against the U.S. on American soil. Fears Grow Among Iranians as U.S. Weighs Talks with Tehran By: Mardo Soghom Amid Washington's signals for new talks, Iranians fear a U.S. deal could bolster the regime's grip. Why it matters: Iranians hope for regime change, not another deal that leaves the current leadership in power. Protests erupted after the January massacre that left thousands dead, underscoring public demand for a significant shift. U.S. deliberations: While Trump's administration considers negotiations, skepticism remains. Critics, including Senator Lindsey Graham, warn against trusting Iran's rulers and emphasize the need for genuine change. Opposition's plea: Iranian dissidents urge the U.S. to seize the moment for potential regime collapse. Many believe a military strike could lead to the regime's downfall, preventing further oppression. To read the full article, click here. Could Iran Really Target a U.S. Carrier Group? By: Mardo Soghom Iran's military faces critical challenges as it grapples with U.S. naval defenses in the region. Why it matters: Despite possessing drones and missiles, Iran struggles to effectively target U.S. carrier groups. Iranian technology lacks the precision needed to track and strike maneuvering naval forces in open waters. Technological hurdles: Iran's systems fall short in continuous tracking and engagement of moving targets. The maritime kill chain is demanding, requiring precise targeting data to overcome U.S. electronic warfare and defenses. Defensive edge: U.S. advancements in directed-energy weapons bolster naval defenses. Laser and microwave systems efficiently counter drone swarms, reducing the threat posed by saturation tactics. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: Israel Insider with Alex Selsky Negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed after the planned meeting in Oman was cancelled, sharply increasing the likelihood of an American military strike on Iran, while Israel actively prepares for potential Iranian retaliation and maintains high readiness in its defense forces. Israel firmly rejects Palestinian Authority's involvement in post-war Gaza governance after the proposed administration's logo mirrored the PA's emblem, exposing underlying intentions, and stresses that Hamas must fully disarm before any large-scale reconstruction or massive investments proceed, as otherwise Hamas benefits from such developments. The opening of the Rafah crossing allows controlled entry of goods and people into Gaza under Israeli oversight, but smuggling networks—including a high-profile case involving cigarettes that generated enormous profits for Hamas—highlight ongoing security risks, while internal Israeli political tensions and economic debates over market reforms reveal deep divisions on future directions. Alex Selsky is a senior adviser to MEF's Israel Victory Project and lecturer at Hadassah Academic College. He is currently serving as Homefront Command reserve major in the Israel Defense Forces; formerly, he served as advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as CEO of the International Israel Beytenu Movement. He holds a B.A. in Business and an executive M.A. in Public Policy from Hebrew University. To watch the full podcast, click here. No Strategic Convergence in the Greece-Turkey Dialogue By: Nicoletta Kouroushi As Greece and Turkey approach a critical summit, tensions rise over maritime disputes and regional power dynamics. Why it matters: Greece insists on negotiations grounded in international law, while Turkey seeks broader concessions. Ankara's navigational advisories in disputed Aegean areas underscore its revisionist agenda, posing a challenge to Greece's legal stance. U.S. role: Washington must tread carefully to uphold international law and support its allies. The U.S. should back Greece's efforts to maintain stability and legality, avoiding compromises that erode legal frameworks. Strategic implications: Greece's cooperation with Israel and regional energy projects strengthens its geopolitical influence. These initiatives enhance energy security and diversification, reducing Europe's reliance on unstable suppliers. To read the full article, click here. Cyprus and U.S. Technology Cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean By: Nicoletta Kouroushi Cyprus is positioning itself as a pivotal digital hub, enhancing U.S. strategic reach through technology infrastructure. Why it matters: U.S.-Cyprus collaborations strengthen trusted supply chains and digital resilience near regional hotspots. Agreements with Nvidia and Tenstorrent boost Cyprus's semiconductor and computing capabilities, aligning with U.S. standards. Strategic partnerships: Cyprus's expanding cooperation with U.S. tech firms advances transatlantic objectives. Initiatives like Plug and Play and joint ventures with Columbia University enhance innovation and workforce skills. Geopolitical significance: Cyprus's stable EU-aligned position offers a strategic base against rising digital threats from China and Russia. This alignment provides secure platforms for U.S. influence, reducing reliance on fragile supply chains in the region. To read the full article, click here. Will Cyprus's European Union Presidency Change Policy Toward the Middle East? By: Nicoletta Kouroushi Cyprus assumes the EU presidency, facing regional challenges and opportunities to influence Middle Eastern engagement. Why it matters: As a frontline state, Cyprus aims to reshape EU-Middle East relations, prioritizing security and strategic competitiveness. Cyprus's proximity to regional hotspots gives it a unique stake in EU discussions, though its influence is limited by the presidency's structural constraints. Strategic priorities: Cyprus focuses on European security, energy competition, and regional stability. Initiatives like cooperation with Israel and Egypt aim to enhance regional partnerships and address migration and energy challenges. Challenges ahead: Cyprus must navigate internal EU skepticism and external pressures, including disinformation threats. Recent controversies highlight the potential for foreign interference to undermine its presidency, emphasizing the need for coordinated action. To read the full article, click here. What Lessons Has Turkey Learned from Iran's Massacre of Protestors? By: Michael Rubin Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's brutal crackdown in Iran sets a troubling precedent for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey as economic and social unrest loom. Why it matters: Both regimes face economic collapse and dissent, relying on repression to maintain power. Khamenei's mass killings in Iran demonstrate how autocrats cling to power amid crises. Parallel paths: Erdoğan's Turkey shows similar signs of economic decline and political unrest. Rising protests and economic woes mirror Iran's trajectory, with Erdoğan watching Khamenei's tactics closely. Implications for the region: The West's response to Iran may influence Turkey's actions. What happens in Iran will not remain in Iran. Erdoğan is watching carefully. If Khamenei gets away with mass murder, Erdoğan likely will not be far behind. To read the full article, click here. Turkey's Intelligence Agency Expands as Erdoğan Centralizes Power By: Abdullah Bozkurt Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's increased reliance on Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) highlights growing governance through surveillance and control. Why it matters: MIT's budget has soared, reinforcing its centrality in Erdoğan's security-driven governance model. MIT's funding for 2026 is projected to rise 37 percent, far outpacing most civilian institutions. Secrecy and power: MIT's operations lack transparency, utilizing off-budget funds and organized crime to support clandestine activities. The agency's discretionary access to funds allows unchecked spending, bypassing public oversight. Strategic implications: MIT's expanded role serves Erdoğan's political objectives, extending beyond traditional intelligence functions. Under Director İbrahim Kalın, the agency advances influence operations and suppresses dissent, cementing Erdoğan's control. To read the full article, click here. Erdoğan Insider Reveals How Turkey Developed Special Ways to Beat U.S. Sanctions on Iran By: Abdullah Bozkurt Former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu confirms Turkey's deliberate bypass of U.S. sanctions on Iran, revealing insider details on the extensive evasion strategy. Why it matters: Turkey's actions provided financial lifelines to Iran's regime while undermining U.S. sanctions. Davutoğlu admits Ankara openly rejected U.S. sanctions, choosing economic interests over compliance. Financial maneuvers: Turkey developed unconventional mechanisms to sustain trade with Iran. Sanctions-evasion schemes involved gold conversions and secretive banking practices. Implications: Davutoğlu's account highlights Turkey's political choice and the resulting corruption. His revelations underscore the potential for repeat scenarios with other sanctioned states like Venezuela. To read the full article, click here. Smuggling Conviction in U.S. Sheds Light on Expanding Migrant Pipeline Run by Turkish Networks By: Abdullah Bozkurt The arrest of Serkan Gökce, a Turkish national with prior U.S. immigration violations, unveils the reach of Turkish-run syndicates smuggling migrants into the U.S. via Canada and Mexico. Why it matters: These networks exploit border vulnerabilities, using technology for coordinated crossings. Gökce coordinated pick-ups via WhatsApp, revealing organized smuggling operations. Systemic failures: Turkish government efforts to curb human smuggling remain ineffective. Despite thousands of arrests, migrant-smuggling networks operate with near impunity, underscoring enforcement gaps. Implications for the U.S.: Turkish nationals continue to be a visible part of non-traditional migration flows. U.S. authorities face challenges in dismantling these sophisticated, transnational networks. To read the full article, click here. Turkey Held Liable for Exporting Political Violence to U.S. Soil, Court Rules By: Abdullah Bozkurt A U.S. federal judge has ruled Turkey liable for a violent 2017 attack by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's security on protesters in Washington, D.C. Why it matters: This rare ruling against a NATO ally condemns Ankara's export of political violence to American soil. The attack at Sheridan Circle targeted Kurdish and anti-Erdoğan demonstrators, violating hate-crime statutes. Judicial findings: Turkey abandoned the case, leading to a default judgment. Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly held Turkey accountable for civil assault, battery, and hate crimes. Pattern of violence: Erdoğan's security team has a history of aggressive conduct abroad. Similar incidents have occurred globally, highlighting a culture of impunity within Erdoğan's protective detail. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Turkey's Longstanding Tolerance of the Islamic State Raises Fears of More Bloodshed By: Abdullah Bozkurt Years of state protection and legal impunity allowed jihadist networks to flourish inside Turkey. The EU's New Trade Rules Reveal Its Leverage Over Turkey By: Abdullah Bozkurt Brussels' new industrial and emissions rules expose how deeply Turkey's automotive sector depends on EU market access. Pro-Caliphate Group in Canada Holds Annual Conference Under the Radar By: Joe Adam George Conference promoted anti-Western and anti-democracy agenda. We hope you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch. If you found it helpful in understanding the Middle East, please share it with a friend, encourage them to subscribe to the Middle East Forum's mailing list, and feel free to share your thoughts with us. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? 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