MEF Dispatch: What’s New About the Protests in Iran

среда, 7 января 2026 г.

Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky, writing in Foreign Policy, argue that the current protests in Ira ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed What's New About the Protests in Iran By Winfield Myers ● Jan 07, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 8.5 mins...2267 words Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky, writing in Foreign Policy, argue that the current protests in Iran are occurring against a geopolitical landscape that has shifted since the 2022 uprising following the murder of Mahsa Amini. If unity among social classes can be maintained, regime change is possible. Mardo Soghom says that, whether or not the U.S. or Israel intervenes to influence events in Iran, the speed and direction of the protests may determine the outcome before any external move is made. In the first of two articles in this issue, Gregg Roman writes that, with Christians and other minorities in the Middle East under threat, Israel should become their guardian. But no one is watching over Northwestern University's Qatar campus, Roman reports in his second piece—which is how the campus became more a training ground for Qatar's elite than an outpost of American culture in the region. Other writers include A.J. Caschetta, Lazar Berman, Amine Ayoub, Benjamin Weinthal, and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi. What's New About This Wave of Protests in Iran By: Saeid Golkar and Jason M. Brodsky Beginning in late December 2025, Iran has witnessed widespread protests reminiscent of the 2022 uprising following Mahsa Amini's murder. Why it matters: These protests underscore a persistent disconnect between the Iranian state and its citizens. The 2022 movement emerged from a social crisis, symbolized by the "Woman, Life, Freedom" slogan, highlighting women's rights and systemic repression. The 2025 unrest, however, is fueled by economic collapse, with the rial plummeting to 1.4 million per dollar and inflation exceeding 52 percent. Comparative dynamics: Both movements were catalyzed by social media, spreading rapidly through platforms like Instagram. In 2022, the #MahsaAmini hashtag went viral, while 2025 saw videos of bazaar strikes capturing the world's attention. International context: The geopolitical landscape has shifted, affecting Iran's internal dynamics. Unlike the Biden administration's diplomatic approach, Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy has exacerbated Iran's economic woes. Protest slogans: An ideological shift is evident with new monarchist chants like "Javid Shah" (Long Live the King). These slogans point to a renewed interest in the Pahlavi legacy and open calls for the return of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, representing a significant departure from the largely republican and rights-based framing of the 2022 movement. The bottom line: While the spirit of "Woman, Life, Freedom" persists, the current protests are broader, suggesting a potential for regime change if unity across social classes can be achieved. To read the full article, click here. Protests Surge Across Iran as Authorities Struggle to Contain Unrest By: Mardo Soghom Iran faces its largest protests yet, with demonstrators demanding the end of the Islamic Republic. Security forces' response: At least 35 protesters have been killed, and hundreds arrested, as officials appear subdued and uneasy. In Tehran, videos show police stepping aside as protesters chant "Death to the dictator," raising questions about their stance. Exiled leadership stance: Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran's last shah, urges citizens to join protests and warns the military against harming civilians. His message to the armed forces includes: "Will you stand by criminals or with the people?" Public discontent: Protesters in one town attacked an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warehouse, destroying food supplies meant for security forces without looting. This act signals a movement focused on regime change, highlighted by slogans like "This is the final battle." To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry A late-2025 meeting between Israel's prime minister and the U.S. president proved notably warm, dispelled rumors of tension, produced no major public breakthroughs, and reinforced coordination on Gaza while delaying any timetable for the next phase of a ceasefire pending Hamas disarmament and unresolved hostage issues. Israel and the United States aligned closely on Iran, with growing emphasis on Iran's ballistic missile program alongside its nuclear ambitions, amid regional instability, demonstrations inside Iran, and acute concern that miscalculation could trigger a wider conflict despite quiet efforts to lower tensions. Domestically, Israel faced mounting political strain over the ultra-Orthodox draft issue after deadly unrest, as coalition disputes over the draft law and the state budget raised the prospect of early elections well before the formal deadline. Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum's Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also worked with Israel's Ministers of Intelligence, Agriculture and Rural Development, Energy, Water and Infrastructure, Defense, Tourism, Internal Security, and Immigrant Absorption and as an advisor to The Negev Forum. Originally from the U.K., he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya). To watch the full podcast, click here. With Venezuela Raid, Trump Fires a Message to Iran and Hamas. Will They Listen? By: Lazar Berman U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, discussing Middle Eastern issues. The attention of the White House, though, was far from the Middle East. Instead, it was busy planning for an impending daring special forces raid to snatch Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro from one of his homes and take him into custody to face narcotics and terrorism charges in the U.S. Caracas raid's implications: The U.S. special forces' operation to capture Venezuela's President Maduro showcases Trump's willingness to use military power. This move has disrupted Caracas' alliance with Iran, impacting the Iran-Hezbollah axis. Middle East dynamics: Trump's readiness to back Israel against Iran signals a robust U.S.-Israel partnership. In Florida, Trump assured support for Israeli strikes if Iran resumes nuclear activities. Leadership contrasts: Trump's interventions highlight the administration's internal divide between Rubio's interventionist stance and Vance's isolationist views. With Rubio's influence growing, the U.S. sees increased military action to fulfill foreign policy goals. Read the full article at the Times of Israel. Israel Should Become the Guardian of Middle Eastern Christians By: Gregg Roman Christian communities in the Middle East are under threat, with Israel poised to protect them amid regional unrest. Israel's capabilities: With extensive intelligence and military reach, Israel can play a key role in safeguarding minorities and preserving Judeo-Christian heritage. Establishing a dedicated governmental body could institutionalize these efforts, similar to the support from Nativ, the organization that maintained ties with Soviet Jewry for decades. Israeli intervention protected Druze villages from ISIS attacks, showcasing its potential beyond ad hoc efforts. Strategic alliances: Protecting minorities is more than moral duty; it's a strategic necessity that aligns with Israel's regional interests. Christians, Druze, Kurds, and Yazidis face common threats from jihadist movements, making them natural allies of Israel. Global implications: Israel's initiative to protect minorities complements U.S. interests, reducing the need for American military involvement. Vice President JD Vance emphasizes regional self-policing, reflecting a shift towards collective responsibility among allies. Trump's Christmas Day strike against ISIS in Nigeria highlighted a commitment to defending persecuted Christians, aligning with Israel's potential role. To read the full article, click here. Qatar's Elite Pipeline at Northwestern By: Gregg Roman A Middle East Forum investigation reveals Northwestern University in Qatar (NU-Q) serves more as a training ground for Qatar's elite than a U.S. academic outpost. Royal influence: The Qatar Foundation, controlled by the ruling Al-Thani family, has funneled over $700 million into NU-Q, embedding it in Qatar's media apparatus. Of 729 NU-Q graduates from 2014 to 2025, approximately 21 percent bear surnames from the Al-Thani royal family or 11 other elite Qatari dynasties, echoing the U.S. "Varsity Blues" scandal, in which privileged insiders exploited access. Strategic implications: NU-Q graduates often join state media and government roles, advancing narratives aligned with Qatar's monarchy. The campus acts as a conduit, potentially influencing U.S. policy through its integration with Northwestern's main campus. Call to action: There's an urgent need for federal oversight and transparency in foreign funding to protect U.S. educational integrity. American universities cannot serve as extensions of foreign monarchies without accountability. The evidence demands immediate scrutiny to safeguard academic independence and national interests. To read the full article, click here. Hatem Bazian Is the Jewish Voice For Peace By: A.J. Caschetta Hatem Bazian, founder of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), inadvertently revealed his influence over Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) through a 2023 Twitter mishap when he accidentally tweeted as JVP, but on his own account. The Muslim Bazian's tweet ended, "As Jews who believe in human rights and justice, we demand you do better." Bazian's impact: Bazian's network includes the Islamophobia Research and Documentation Project at UC Berkeley and co-founding the Islamic Zaytuna College. His takeover of SJP in 2001 shifted it from moderate to more extremist, reflecting his broader activist agenda. JVP transformation: Originally non-anti-Zionist, JVP now openly embraces Islamists and calls for Israel's destruction. The alliance with SJP is strategic, leveraging Jewish identity to amplify anti-Israel messaging. Alliance dynamics: Since October 7, JVP has become the most important front for SJP. At schools where SJP chapters are suspended or banned, many continue to operate under the guise of JVP. To read the full article, click here. 'Pro-Iran Regime' University of Arkansas Prof. Now Under Investigation over Academic Fraud: Publisher By: Benjamin Weinthal and Isabel Vincent Shirin Saeidi, a University of Arkansas professor, is under investigation for potential academic fraud. Fraud allegations: Saeidi's 2022 Ph.D. dissertation is being probed for alleged fabrication and unauthorized use of survivor testimonies. Iranian dissident Maryam Nouri claims her memoir was used without permission, sparking the investigation by Cambridge University Press. Pro-Iranian actions: Saeidi was removed from her position as director of the King Fahd Center for Middle East Studies after using university letterhead to support an Iranian war criminal. She has publicly praised Ayatollah Khamenei and criticized Israel, describing it as a "terrorist state." Response and reactions: Saeidi claims her removal was influenced by a "Zionist lobby," and her case is supported by Iranian media. The University of Arkansas faces scrutiny over her claims of free speech infringement and the ongoing investigation. To read the full article, click here. The Victims No One Mourns By: Amine Ayoub The West celebrates Syria's new leadership, but the reality for minorities like the Alawites and Christians is grim. Crackdown on Alawites: The administration of President Ahmed al-Sharaa brands Alawite protests as counter-insurgency against "regime remnants." Calling for federalism, Alawite leaders face military force instead of protection. Security facade: Despite preventing an ISIS attack in Aleppo, Syria's security forces remain ineffective against sectarian threats. Christians and Alawites see former jihadist foes now policing them under the "New Syria." Western oversight: The U.S. and E.U. prioritize stability over human rights, ignoring the plight of minorities. The "New Syria" mirrors Assad's methods, using repression to maintain control while the West looks on. To read the full article, click here. Erdoğan's 'Blue Homeland' and the Illegal Occupation of Libya By: Amine Ayoub Turkey seeks to extend its military presence in Libya, cementing influence in North Africa and challenging the Mediterranean's stability. The "Zombie" treaty: The 2019 Maritime Boundary Treaty with Libya is void, yet Turkey uses it to justify aggressive territorial claims. Ignoring Crete, it redraws the Mediterranean map, threatening regional sovereignty. Radicalism incubator: Turkey's military acts as a shield for Islamist factions, blocking Libya's unification and fostering dependency. Tripoli remains reliant on Turkish power, compromising its sovereignty. Threat to NATO: Turkey's actions challenge NATO by threatening Greece and flanking the alliance from the south. The "Blue Homeland" doctrine seeks to revive Ottoman-era dominance over the Mediterranean. Restoring rule of law: Stability lies in supporting legitimate Libyan institutions and rejecting foreign occupations. The international community must condemn Turkey's presence and push for foreign troop withdrawals. To read the full article, click here. Mohamed Farid on Egypt's Security Challenges in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa By: Marilyn Stern In a recent Middle East Forum Podcast, Mohamed Farid, an Egyptian MP, highlighted strategic failures in handling the Houthis and Iran's influence in Yemen. Yemen's challenges: The Houthis' missile and drone capabilities threaten global shipping, despite U.S. air strikes. Egypt suffers economically from Suez Canal impacts and calls for a unified strategy. Regional instability: Terrorism in the Horn of Africa mirrors Yemen's issues, with groups like Al Shabab exploiting governance gaps. Egypt supports Somalia to consolidate security forces and stabilize the region. Sudan's conflict: The instability in Sudan poses a significant threat to Egypt's national security with cross-border crimes. Egypt faces pressure from Sudanese refugees and aims to prevent regional implosion through stabilization efforts. To read the full summary and watch the podcast, click here. Armed Groups in Sudan's War: Interview with the Leader of 'al-Barq al-Khatif' By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Recently, MEF writing fellow Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi interviewed Ibn Omar, who commands the "al-Barq al-Khatif" ("Flash of Lightning") forces. The long-standing group supports the Sudanese armed forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the ongoing Sudanese civil war. Origins and operations: Formed in 1998, al-Barq al-Khatif mobilizes university students for battle when towns are threatened. They have participated in key battles, including Omdurman and al-Jazira province. Vision for Sudan: The group envisions an Islamic, sovereign state based on justice and law. Their members hail from all regions of Sudan, committed to defending land and honor. Message to the world: Al-Barq al-Khatif calls for international support against RSF militias, seen as a threat to regional stability. They urge the global community to recognize the battle as a defense of the Sudanese people and a stand against terrorism. To read the full interview, click here. We appreciate your continued support of the Middle East Forum and your reliance on MEF to bring you a steady stream of analyses and reports about the region and its influences on our world. If you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch, please forward it to a friend and let us know your thoughts in the comments section. 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