MEF Dispatch: ISIS May Prosper From Syria’s Dangerous Turn

пятница, 23 января 2026 г.

In three articles, Jonathan Spyer warns of the consequences of allowing Syria's new "reformed" Islam ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

View on web  |  Read what you missed ISIS May Prosper From Syria's Dangerous Turn By Winfield Myers ● Jan 23, 2026 Smart Brevity® count: 8 mins...2169 words In three articles, Jonathan Spyer warns of the consequences of allowing Syria's new "reformed" Islamist government to defeat and displace the U.S.'s steadfast Kurdish allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces. Massacres of captured Kurdish soldiers are underway, and with the collapse of the formerly Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, ISIS jihadists imprisoned under Kurdish watch may be freed to terrorize again. Michael Rubin argues that the fall of the city of Kobane to the advancing Syrian army will result in a massacre of the Kurds and an empowering of a reborn Islamic State. Turning to Iran, Saeid Golkar in two articles explains why the Islamic regime has not fallen and speculates on what might replace it if it does. Also included are articles by Kamal Chomani, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, and Umud Shokri. ISIS May Prosper From Syria's Dangerous Turn By: Jonathan Spyer The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) face existential threats as the Syrian government's military forces launch aggressive campaigns into SDF-controlled territories. The stakes: The SDF, once a bulwark against ISIS, now faces the risk of annihilation by the new Islamist government in Damascus. The government's advance threatens Kurdish-majority regions like Hasakah, with reports of brutal executions and humanitarian crises. Current developments: Syrian government forces have swiftly moved through key regions like Deir al-Zur and Raqqa, breaking cease-fires and escalating tensions. The capture of Al-Hol camp, housing thousands of ISIS relatives, highlights the government's reach and the growing instability in the region. What's next: The international community, led by the U.S. and its allies, must decide whether to intervene or allow the Syrian regime to consolidate power. Without intervention, the SDF's defeat could lead to a resurgence of jihadist activity and further regional chaos. The situation remains dire, and the world must act to prevent a humanitarian disaster and potential ISIS resurgence in Syria. Read the full article at the Wall Street Journal. Syria's Islamic State Campus Could Fall By: Jonathan Spyer As Syrian government forces advance into the formerly Kurdish-controlled northeast, the future of ISIS camps housing fighters and families becomes urgent. Immediate challenges: The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), under-resourced and politically isolated, barely maintained order in camps like al-Hol, where ISIS still exerts influence. The Syrian army's entry into these areas raises concerns about the continued incarceration of jihadists and potential mass breakouts. Structural concerns: The ideological alignment between Syria's new Islamist rulers and ISIS poses long-term risks. With the U.S. withdrawing support, the emergent regime might not effectively contain the ISIS threat, risking regional instability. International implications: The West must decide whether to intervene or allow the new Syrian regime to consolidate power. Abandoning the Kurdish SDF could lead to further chaos and empower jihadist elements, undermining years of counterterrorism efforts. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI: 'Syria on the Brink?' with Kamal Chomani and Sirwan Kajjo Kurdish forces defended Kobani against ISIS in 2014, prompting the U.S. to partner with them and expand the alliance into the multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which defeated ISIS across northeast Syria by 2019. After Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, took power following Assad's fall, his government launched offensives to dismantle the SDF and Kurdish-led administration, causing withdrawals, Arab defections, and sieges in places like Kobani. Turkey heavily influences the new Syrian regime, backs anti-Kurdish proxies, installs military infrastructure, and shapes anti-Kurdish policies, while the U.S. has withdrawn support from the SDF, prioritizing a recentralized Syrian state despite risks of jihadist resurgence. Sirwan Kajjo, a Middle East Forum Milstein Writing Fellow, is a journalist and researcher specializing in Kurdish politics, Islamic militancy, and Syrian affairs. Kamal Chomani is a non-resident fellow at the Kurdish Peace Institute and editor-in-chief of The Amargi (www.theamargi.com). To watch the full podcast, click here. The West Stays Silent as Its Kurdish Allies Face Attacks by Syria's 'Reformed' Islamist Government By: Jonathan Spyer The conflict between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Islamist government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa has escalated rapidly, with alarming consequences. Why it matters: The SDF, a key ally in the fight against ISIS, now faces potential annihilation, risking regional stability and the resurgence of jihadist forces. Syrian government forces have committed atrocities, including beheadings, and are approaching ISIS detention facilities, raising fears of mass escape. Current developments: Damascus's forces have quickly taken control of Arab-majority provinces and are now entering Kurdish-majority areas, leading to widespread mobilization and fear of massacres. The government has overtaken camps like al-Hol, where thousands of ISIS family members are held, heightening humanitarian concerns. What's next: The international community, particularly the West, must act swiftly to prevent a disaster for Syria's Kurds and to maintain regional security. Without intervention, there could be a massive release of jihadists, threatening global security and undoing years of counterterrorism efforts. To read the full article, click here. The Fall of Kobane Will Mark the Rebirth of a New Islamic State By: Michael Rubin The potential fall of Kobane to the new Syrian army and its jihadist allies threatens to reverse the hard-fought gains against the Islamic State. Why it matters: Kobane is a symbolic stronghold of Kurdish resistance, and its capture would represent a significant victory for Islamist forces, marking a potential resurgence of ISIS. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who played a crucial role in defeating ISIS, face annihilation, risking regional stability. The historical context: Kobane's resistance against ISIS was a turning point in the battle against the caliphate, highlighting the Kurdish fighters' resilience and determination. The current threat from the Syrian army, supported by Turkey, endangers the Kurdish legacy and could lead to a humanitarian disaster akin to past massacres. What's next: The international community, especially the U.S., must reassess its strategy to prevent further escalation and preserve the gains made against terrorism. Ignoring the situation could fuel greater terrorism not only in Syria but across the globe, undermining years of counterterrorism efforts. To read the full article, click here. The Kurds of Syria Learn American Betrayal By: Kamal Chomani Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statement on ending U.S. military aid within a decade underscores a broader reality: American reliability as a security partner is waning. Why it matters: The U.S.'s erratic policies have left allies like the Kurds vulnerable, with Tom Barrack, the U.S. envoy to Syria, pushing for a flawed peace plan. This plan, heavily favoring the new Syrian regime, threatens Kurdish autonomy and risks ethnic cleansing. The Kurdish plight: The Kurds, key in defeating ISIS, now face betrayal as the U.S. shifts its focus. With the Syrian Arab Army advancing, Kurdish forces confront existential threats, highlighting the U.S.'s transactional nature. What's next: Without recognizing Kurdish rights, the U.S. risks losing credibility, pushing Middle Eastern allies toward powers like China. The potential integration of ISIS fighters into Syrian forces further complicates regional stability. To read the full article, click here. The Renewed Fighting Between the SDF and Syrian Government: Interview By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Despite a recent ceasefire agreement, fighting has resumed between Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as government forces push into Hasakah and towards Kobani. The following summarizes an interview by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi with Kajin Aloush, a Kurd and executive director of a media company. She is currently in the predominantly Syrian Kurdish city of Qamishli on the border with Turkey. Why it matters: This renewed conflict threatens the SDF's Autonomous Administration project, which aims to preserve Kurdish self-governance amid central government advances. The SDF's withdrawal from areas like al-Hol indicates a shift in focus towards defending Kurdish territories, highlighting the fragility of the coalition. Ground perspective: Kajin Aloush, a Kurd in Qamishli, reports widespread mobilization and preparation for defense, despite hopes for a political resolution. The agreement's collapse reflects deep-seated tensions and differing visions for Syria's future, with Kurds seeking rights and autonomy in a unified Syria. What's next: The international community must support a political solution to prevent further escalation and ensure minority rights in Syria. The Kurds should attain their rights in the new Syria and there should be no sectarian or ethnic discrimination as is currently the case. Without such efforts, the risk of ethnic conflict and further destabilization remains high. To read the full interview, click here. Syrian Presidential Decree on Kurdish Rights By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi The Syrian government's recent takeover of Kurdish neighborhoods and the impending withdrawal of the SDF from key areas highlights tensions in implementing the 2025 agreement for SDF integration into the Syrian state. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi translated President Ahmad al-Sharaa's decree on Kurdish rights. The following text summarizes his translation. Why it matters: President Ahmad al-Sharaa's decree offers gestures towards Kurdish cultural rights but may serve as pressure on the SDF to accept a centralized governance model. The decree's stipulations, like recognizing Kurdish as a national language, are seen as minimal gestures rather than substantial concessions. Current state of negotiations: Talks remain stalled as the central government's vision clashes with the SDF's autonomy goals. The decree's impact is limited without addressing practical questions like language status and educational rights. What's next: The decree's publication reflects a strategic move by Damascus to consolidate power and influence SDF decisions. For genuine progress, both sides must bridge their vision differences and ensure meaningful recognition of Kurdish rights. To read the full translation, click here. Syria's Energy Sector Faces Structural, Not Symbolic, Barriers By: Umud Shokri Syria's oil and gas sector, once a cornerstone of the economy, faces a challenging path to recovery amid war damage and political uncertainty. Why it matters: With infrastructure devastated and skilled labor scarce, Syria's energy revival requires over $30 billion, including $10 billion for oil and gas alone. Despite recent territorial gains, the Syrian government's plan hinges on securing investment and easing sanctions. Complex challenges: Years of illicit extraction have degraded reservoirs and complicated recovery, while ownership changes and decrees offer little practical progress. Analysts caution that sovereignty alone won't restore production without security, regulatory clarity, and experienced operators. What's next: Interest from foreign companies is emerging cautiously, yet major firms remain hesitant due to risks and regulatory uncertainty. Long-term recovery depends on political stability, credible institutions, and a coherent strategy to attract investment and rebuild infrastructure. To read the full article, click here. Why Iran's Regime Didn't Collapse By: Saeid Golkar Despite ongoing protests, Iran's Islamic Republic, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains resilient due to its intricate power structure. Why it matters: The regime's survival hinges on a well-organized theocratic security system that prioritizes coercion over consent, making political change difficult. Khamenei's leadership style is defined by rigidity and a divine mission to preserve the Islamic Republic, limiting avenues for reform. Layers of control: The Beit-e Rahbari, or Office of the Supreme Leader, acts as the regime's true executive authority, operating above formal institutions. This parallel state, supported by clerical networks and the IRGC, maintains religious legitimacy and enforces repression. What's next: Understanding Iran's power architecture is crucial for assessing its political future and the prospects for change. The Islamic Republic is not resilient because it enjoys legitimacy or popular consent. The regime's engineered resilience deflects pressure, centralizes power, and shields its core from societal and institutional influences. To read the full article, click here. Four Scenarios If the Regime Falls By: Saeid Golkar As protests and economic pressures intensify in Iran, the question of the regime's potential collapse looms large, with several possible outcomes. Why it matters: Understanding the potential scenarios helps gauge the impact of regime change on regional stability and global politics. The Islamic Republic's fall could lead to a managed transition, clerical collapse, further fragmentation, or even the return of the Pahlavi dynasty. Scenario analysis: A managed transition could maintain state functions, while clerical collapse might see the security apparatus preserving power. Further fragmentation risks conflict, but Iran's strong national identity and structured bureaucracies might prevent a full-scale civil war. What's next: Decisions made post-collapse will shape Iran's political future more than protest slogans. Global actors must consider these scenarios to support a stable transition, ensuring opportunities for change are not lost. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: An 'SDF-Regime Remnants' Alliance in Aleppo? By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi Contacts between displaced Alawite fighters and the Syrian Democratic Forces reflect survival, not strategic coordination. After Trump Takes Kharg, He Should Set up a Free Iran Sovereign Wealth Fund By: Michael Rubin A post-Islamic Republic Iran will need billions of dollars to rebuild after nearly a half-century of the ayatollahs' mismanagement. The Saudi Pivot By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour Riyadh repositions for regional primacy in a post-liberal Middle East. U.S. and Cypriot Security Interests Should Converge in Any New Cyprus Peace Talks By: Nicoletta Kouroushi Cyprus is a predictable partner that can anchor cooperation across the Eastern Mediterranean. A Nuclear Ghost Ship off Algeria: How Putin Smuggled a Reactor Under NATO's Nose By: Amine Ayoub A sunken Russian freighter reveals a hidden proliferation route in the Mediterranean. We hope you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch. If you found it helpful in understanding the Middle East, please share it with a friend, encourage them to subscribe to the Middle East Forum's mailing list, and feel free to share your thoughts with us. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2025 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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