1000 баксов за месяц: MEF Dispatch: Iran’s New Age of Revolutions

пятница, 9 января 2026 г.

Iran's New Age of Revolutions

By Winfield Myers ● Jan 09, 2026

Smart Brevity^® count: 6.5 mins...1715 words

With demonstrations in Iran now into their third week, Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi assess them against the backdrop of previous protests and deem these different in kind. They write that more active Western engagement—including military strikes—could tilt the balance of power against the regime. Mardo Soghom calls the current wave of protests unprecedented, especially following exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's call for action.

Michael Rubin details how Pahlavi might return to Iran and lays out survival strategies after his arrival. Shay Khatiri warns Iranians not to wax nostalgic about Iran's pre-1979 economy, as any new order must avoid both the corruption and incompetence of the current regime and the many errors of the pre-revolutionary Pahlavi era.

Also included are two articles by Jonathan Spyer, who has a few thoughts on the alleged new world order and on Israel's impending renewed warfare with Hezbollah. Other authors featured include Lazar Berman, Marilyn Stern, and Nik Kowsar.

Iran's New Age of Revolutions

By: Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi

Amidst a backdrop of economic collapse and repression, protests in Iran have spread to over 108 cities, fueled by demands for regime change.

Why it matters: The ongoing unrest marks a shift from previous reform-focused movements to a direct challenge to the regime's authority.

Notably, protests have erupted in regions like Ilam and Chaharmahal, once strongholds of the Islamic Republic's support.

The big picture: These protests, unlike those from 1999 to 2009, are led by the lower social classes, highlighting systemic economic and political failures.

With rising frequency, the demonstrations reflect the population's frustration with issues like mismanagement and corruption.

Under the surface: Social media's role is pivotal, enabling real-time communication and international advocacy, contrasting with past reliance on traditional media.

The regime's increased reliance on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps underscores its desperation to maintain control.

What's next: Effective international pressure, including sanctions and diplomatic efforts, could weaken the regime's suppressive capabilities and support the protestors' cause.

Targeted military strikes could further disrupt the regime's ability to sustain its repressive tactics, shifting the balance of power towards the protestors.

To read the full article, click here.

Iran Sees Unprecedented Protests as Millions Answer Pahlavi's Call

Casings from Iranian security forces, who routinely fire into crowds of protesters. Still from X post by Mehdi Mirghaderi

By: Mardo Soghom

Iran witnessed its most significant anti-government protests in 47 years, with millions joining exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's call.

Massive demonstrations: In Mashhad, a conservative stronghold, nearly a million gathered, overwhelming security forces.

The scale of protests in such regions indicates a profound shift in public sentiment.

Escalating violence: Security forces fired on crowds, resulting in dozens of casualties, but protests persisted past midnight.

In some areas, demonstrators retaliated, setting vehicles and buildings ablaze.

Global attention: President Trump voiced support, warning Tehran against harming protestors, while U.S. military posture remains unchanged.

Russian transport aircraft were seen landing in Tehran in recent days, with sources claiming they were carrying Iran's gold reserves to Russia.

To read the full article, click here.

How Will Reza Pahlavi Return to Iran? And Can He Stay Alive When He Gets There?

Iran's former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi at a session of European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium, on March 1, 2023. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

As Iranian protests enter their third week, the regime faces unprecedented challenges with calls for Supreme Leader Khamenei's demise.

Chants for change: Iranians, driven by nostalgia and desire for reform, rally behind Reza Pahlavi, the prominent opposition figure.

Videos circulate showing acts of defiance, including the assassination of a police chief and the making of Molotov cocktails.

Pahlavi's precarious position: Despite his office's shortcomings, Pahlavi is seen as pivotal for Iran's peaceful transition.

His return could signal the regime's downfall, but timing and preparation are crucial.

Risk of chaos: The potential for violence akin to Iraq's insurgency looms if Pahlavi's return isn't managed carefully.

Regional and international discussions are needed to ensure his safety and prevent destabilization.

To read the full article, click here.

How Trump Reset the Opposition's Conversation About Iran's Future

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and U.S. President Donald Trump in a smartphone split-screen. Shutterstock

By: Nik Kowsar

As the Iranian protests continue, the regime faces mounting pressure amid widespread unrest and calls for change.

Kurdish strike signals readiness: Thousands in western Iran prepared for January 8 gatherings, showing solidarity and readiness for action.

The regime's internet blackout highlights its strategy of isolation over engagement.

Pahlavi's cautious call: Instead of escalating, Reza Pahlavi urged supporters to shout from rooftops, reflecting a tactical approach.

His influence is questioned as media frames him as a leading figure while critics demand transparency.

U.S. stance: President Trump warned against violence but hesitated to back a specific opposition leader.

His preference for organic leadership emergence contrasts with monarchist calls for unity under Pahlavi.

To read the full article, click here.

Have Iranians Learned the Lessons of Economic Failure Under Both the Ayatollahs and Shah?

An Iranian 1000 rial 1974 banknote shows a portrait of the deposed Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Shutterstock

By: Shay Khatiri

As Iran faces economic turmoil, the debate centers on whether new leadership can embrace a more effective model post-Islamic Republic.

Pahlavi era reflections: Iranians idealize the Pahlavi era's modernization, often overlooking central planning failures that fueled the 1979 revolution.

High tariffs and protectionism under the shah contributed to economic woes now echoed in public discourse.

Current economic pitfalls: The Islamic Republic's cronyism and Revolutionary Guard's economic dominance stifle growth and innovation.

Businesses fear expansion due to potential confiscation by regime-affiliated interests.

Future economic prospects: A post-regime Iran must tackle rent-seeking and corruption, shifting away from centralized economic models.

Emphasizing privatization and local empowerment could prevent repeating past mistakes.

To read the full article, click here.

Is Maduro's Past Erdoğan's Future?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with U.S. President Donald Trump at a September 30, 2025, meeting on Middle East issues at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

In a bold operation, U.S. Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, signaling a new era of accountability for authoritarian leaders.

U.S. action precedent: The capture mirrors past operations, such as the seizure of Panamanian dictator Noriega, highlighting the U.S. willingness to act against corrupt regimes.

Maduro now faces charges of narco-terrorism and weapons trafficking in New York.

Erdoğan's precarious position: Turkish President Erdoğan should heed the lessons from Maduro's downfall, as his ties with Trump may not shield him from future U.S. actions.

His regime's alleged involvement in corruption and support for terrorist groups parallels Maduro's situation.

Global implications: The operation against Maduro may inspire similar actions, reshaping international norms surrounding accountability for leaders.

As U.S. foreign policy evolves, other authoritarian figures may face increased scrutiny and potential repercussions.

To read the full article, click here.

A Few Thoughts on the Alleged New World Order

The world is replacing a world order that has pertained since 1990. It was a place where America enjoyed more or less unrivaled dominance, while its European allies complacently took that for granted....

By: Jonathan Spyer

As the U.S. asserts its power, a new world order is taking shape, driven by great-power state interests and shifting alliances.

Post-1990 shift: With U.S. dominance waning, European allies face rearmament or submission to eastern powers.

Western Europe's reliance on illusionary politics and mass immigration complicates its defensive stance.

Israel's advantage: In this new era, Israel stands militarily and economically superior to its regional rivals.

The possession of a strong state and military fortifies its position amid global changes.

Legacy of illusions: The decline of a hegemonic world challenges the transnational elites' anti-Israel biases.

Yet, Israel's robust national identity and defense capabilities remain its strongest shields against evolving hostilities.

To read the full article, click here.

It's a Matter of When, Not If, Israel Steps up Its War on Hezbollah

Supporters wave Iranian, Lebanese, and Hezbollah flags during a pro-Iran demonstration in South Lebanon on June 29, 2025. Shutterstock

By: Jonathan Spyer

Israeli aircraft targeted Hezbollah and Hamas infrastructure in Lebanon, as the LAF failed to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River by the December 31 deadline.

Hezbollah defiance: Despite the ceasefire, Hezbollah refuses to disarm, warning of civil war if forced.

Sheikh Naim Qassem's threats highlight the group's resolve against perceived Israeli-American projects.

Strategic challenges: Hezbollah's recovery from the 2024 war is hindered by severed arms routes through Syria, limiting rearmament efforts.

The loss of the Syrian corridor marks a strategic setback for Hezbollah and Iran's regional ambitions.

Israeli strategy: Following the October 7 massacres, Israel prioritizes proactive defense, aiming to weaken Hezbollah permanently.

Netanyahu's Washington visit suggests cautious U.S. support for Israel's actions, though the extent of this backing remains unclear.

To read the full article, click here.

Trump and Netanyahu Present United Stance on Gaza, but Will Hamas Agree to Go Along?

President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized coordination on Gaza as questions persist about Hamas's willingness to comply. Shutterstock

By: Lazar Berman

Amid the ongoing Gaza ceasefire, reports of tensions between U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have surfaced, highlighting differing visions for Middle East peace.

Ceasefire strains: Axios reports suggest Trump's team accuses Netanyahu of stalling the Gaza plan, fearing a return to conflict with Hamas.

Trump aims to unveil a technocratic Gaza government, backed by international peacekeepers, to stabilize the region.

Syria sanctions dispute: Netanyahu's request to maintain U.S. sanctions on Syria as leverage in future talks was rejected by Trump, reflecting policy divergences.

The disagreement underscores fundamental differences in achieving long-term peace in the region.

Meeting dynamics: At Mar-a-Lago, Trump and Netanyahu sought to downplay tensions, emphasizing alignment on broader Middle East strategies.

Trump's support for Netanyahu, including backing potential Israeli action against Iran, suggests continued collaboration despite disagreements.

Read the full article at the Times of Israel.

Robert Silverman: The Middle East in 2026

The Middle East in 2026 with Robert Silverman.

By: Marilyn Stern

In a recent MEF Podcast, Robert Silverman, a Middle East expert, highlighted the potential for a regional alliance among Egypt, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia against Iran, contingent on U.S. leadership.

Historical context: For decades, these five powers have dominated the Middle East, each with complex relationships.

The "Hobbesian truth" prevails, where temporary alliances shift amidst enduring rivalries.

U.S. role: Silverman emphasizes that U.S. involvement is crucial to bind these powers, as seen with Israel's integration into U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).