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пятница, 2 января 2026 г.

The Fall of Iran Could Change Everything; Israel at a Turning Point

By Winfield Myers ● Jan 02, 2026

Smart Brevity^® count: 10 mins...2603 words

We start with two articles on Iran from Michael Rubin, who writes that if the Iranian regime collapses, the West should not expect its fall to be a "pass to security and a peaceful Middle East." He also suggests concrete steps to ensure that regime leaders responsible for bloodshed and oppression face justice.

We feature three articles by Rubin on the opportunities created by Israel's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland, including how U.S. recognition would would be President Trump's ultimate response to Rep. Ilhan Omar's efforts to undermine his policies on assistance and immigration.

Alex Selsky argues that 2025 saw a turning point for Israel, with the decisive moment coming in June, when Israel launched its direct attack on Iran. Jonathan Spyer analyzes why, in the face of the October 7 attacks, the West Bank remained quiet. We also offer more from Michael Rubin along with Eric Navarro's examination of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act.

The Fall Of Iran Could Change Everything

Economic strain and widespread unrest are converging in Iran as pressure mounts on the Islamic Republic. Sajjad Vesagh/Tayebi Yousef Mazahibir, CC BY 2.5 , via Wikimedia Commons.

By: Michael Rubin

The Iranian regime faces its biggest challenge since its inception over 46 years ago, with protests spreading across societal lines, including traditionally supportive groups.

Why it matters: The collapse of the Islamic Republic could reshape the geopolitical landscape.

Economic woes, like inflation and currency devaluation, are hitting even regime loyalists hard, signaling potential systemic collapse akin to the Tehran Bazaar's closure.

Regional impacts: A smooth succession in Iran is unlikely due to fragmented opposition. This chaos could limit Iran's regional threats, as security forces focus inward.

Iraq and Gulf states might initially benefit as Iranian influence wanes, but internal GCC divisions may intensify, especially if Saudi and Emirati rivalries spill into Iran.

Winners and losers: While the Gulf states may gain, their enduring relevance is uncertain. The Revolutionary Guard remains powerful but faces diminishing influence in Iraq.

The UAE could see an influx of capital as regime officials seek to safeguard assets, risking diplomatic tensions with the U.S.

Broader implications: Civil war in Iran could lead to a refugee crisis in the Gulf. Turkey may emerge stronger, filling the ideological void left by Iran's downfall.

Optimism in Washington about resolving regional conflicts like Yemen's and Hezbollah's influence might be misplaced, as deep-rooted issues persist.

Regime change in Iran will be welcome. The devil we know is not always better than the devil we do not. But, any tendency on the part of the White House and Washington think tanks to see Iran's collapse as a "Hail Mahdi" pass to security and a peaceful Middle East will be embarrassingly naïve.

To read the full article, click here.

How Should the United States Approach Justice in Iran?

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

In the early morning hours of January 2, 2026, President Donald Trump threw down the gauntlet on Iran. "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue," he wrote on Truth Social. "We are locked and loaded and ready to go."

Why it matters: Empowering the Iranian people's courage is key to effecting regime change without relying solely on U.S. military action. This aligns with the Middle East Forum's advocacy for regional stability through local empowerment.

Forming a coalition with the E.U. and regional allies to pressure Iran's leaders to step down can help avoid severe repercussions and further destabilization.

Key actions: The U.S. should lead efforts to trace the regime's embezzled funds, urging allies like the U.K. and UAE to refrain from protecting Iranian assets.

The United States, preferably with the European Union and as many Middle Eastern and South Asian countries that will join, should issue an ultimatum to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and current cabinet members: Leave Iran, turn yourself into foreign embassies abroad, and live. You can escape the death penalty, if not win amnesty.
Drawing from Iraq's historical lessons, ensuring justice and financial transparency post-regime change is critical for sustainable reform.

Next steps: Trump also must prepare the U.S. Department of Justice and the Internal Revenue Service to deal with those Americans who helped and assisted the Islamic Republic as unregistered foreign agents.

The Iranian gravy train has been greater than even Iraq's and impacted the U.S. policy debate more as Iran's fellow travelers have established think tanks and infiltrated top media outlets. Their free ride should be over.

Securing internal Iranian documents and leveraging informants from the failed regime who can prove the complicity and corruption of American citizens or residents in regime propaganda should be a top priority for the United States internally as Iran simultaneously seeks to rebuild.

To read the full article, click here.

What the National Defense Authorization Act Gets Right in the Middle East and Where It Falls Short

The Middle East remains an area of strategic concern in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act. Shutterstock

By: Eric Navarro

The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act highlights the persistent strategic concerns posed by Iran and others but falls short in enforcing decisive actions.

Why it matters: Iran's missile and drone capabilities, coupled with its support for proxies like the Houthis, demand a comprehensive U.S. strategy.

The NDAA prioritizes force protection and missile defense but lacks a framework to dismantle Iran's expansive proxy networks.

Iran's threat: The NDAA emphasizes reporting on Iran's evolving capabilities but treats the nation as a problem to manage rather than an adversary to defeat.

A robust strategy would target Iran's financial networks and proxy support systems, aiming to degrade their influence regionally.

Operational gaps: While the NDAA includes provisions for integrated air and missile defense, it misses a mandated campaign for the Red Sea, allowing Iran's maritime threats to persist.

Smuggling networks, crucial to Iranian proxies, are acknowledged but not specifically targeted, leaving a strategic blind spot.

Strategic oversight: The NDAA gestures toward coalition-building but fails to create a lasting regional security framework, missing opportunities for formalized Arab-Israeli cooperation.

If the goal is a new Middle East, one anchored to U.S. interests, resilient against Iranian proxy warfare, and capable of defending global commerce, then future legislation must go further. Anything less risks repeating a familiar pattern: recognizing the problem but leaving initiative to the enemy.

To read the full article, click here.

ICYMI: Somaliland: Key Player in a Key Location, with Bashir Goth

Israel's recognition of Somaliland elevated Somaliland's pursuit of sovereignty following decades of self-governance marked by repeated elections, peaceful transfers of power, and sustained internal security. The development carried strategic implications for Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab maritime security amid Houthi attacks, Iranian activity, and intensifying competition involving Turkey and China, with Somaliland positioned as a stable partner for Israel, the United States, and Gulf states including the UAE. Somaliland's historical claim to independence, efforts to expand international recognition, potential security cooperation with Israel, interest in joining the Abraham Accords, and counterterrorism coordination with Puntland are central elements of its regional and diplomatic strategy.

Bashir Goth is the Somaliland Representative to the United States. He has decades of experience as a journalist, translator, media and corporate communications advisor, and diplomat. The author of numerous articles and essays in English and Arabic on political, business, cultural and social issues, many of which have been translated into other languages or referenced in academic texts, Goth has contributed to Newsweek, the Washington Post's blog Global Post, and many other leading Middle East and African newspapers. Goth graduated from Somali National University with degrees in English literature and history.

To watch the full podcast, click here.

Recognizing Somaliland Would Be Trump's Ultimate Response to Ilhan Omar

U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) in a file photo on Capitol Hill. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

President Trump's upcoming meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu includes discussions on regional stability, highlighting the potential recognition of Somaliland's independence as a strategic move.

Why it matters: Recognizing Somaliland would bolster U.S. national security interests and counter Somali corruption, particularly in Minnesota, where Rep. Ilhan Omar's policies challenge Trump's agenda.

Somaliland's governance contrasts sharply with Somalia, thriving without international aid and fostering a sustainable economy.

Strategic rationale: Somaliland has a historical precedent of independence before merging with Somalia, akin to other global dissolutions like the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.

Trump's recognition would counter Rep. Omar's alignment with Somali and Chinese interests, promoting a stable and democratic partner in Somaliland.

Political dynamics: Rep. Ilhan Omar's support for Somali policies and criticism of the U.S. underscore the need for a strategic pivot.

Trump's recognition of Somaliland would challenge Omar's clan-based political agenda and align with U.S. interests in the Horn of Africa.

Recognizing Somaliland would not only counter corruption and clan politics but also align with U.S. strategic interests, reinforcing a stable ally in East Africa.

To read the full article, click here.

After Somaliland, Israel Should Recognize South Yemen

A water canal in the city of Mukalla, southern Yemen. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

Israel's recognition of Somaliland's independence marks a strategic milestone, urging similar actions for South Yemen to bolster regional stability.

Why it matters: Somaliland, with its defined borders and autonomy, thrives despite international non-recognition, offering a model for stability in the Horn of Africa.

Its effective governance and economic resilience stand in stark contrast to Somalia's chaos and corruption.

Strategic implications: Recognizing Somaliland and South Yemen could counteract Iranian influence and secure key maritime routes.

Somaliland's robust coast guard deters piracy, while South Yemen blocks weapon smuggling, enhancing regional security.

Regional dynamics: South Yemen shares Somaliland's historical legitimacy and moderate political culture, providing a strategic ally against Iranian proxies and extremist groups.

Establishing diplomatic relations would deny Iran crucial smuggling routes and strengthen alliances among Abraham Accords countries.

This recognition strategy presents a unique diplomatic opportunity that promises benefits for Israel, the U.S., and moderate Arab states at minimal cost, reinforcing a stable geopolitical landscape.

To read the full article, click here.

Greece Should Recognize Somaliland

Berbera sits at the center of Somaliland's growing economic and strategic relevance. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

On December 26, 2025, Israel formally recognized Somaliland, a move celebrated for its justice and strategic foresight.

Why it matters: Somaliland, a former British protectorate, has demonstrated resilience and stability, thriving independently despite lacking formal recognition.

It boasts a robust democracy, with successful elections secured by biometric iris scans, and a growing economy anchored by the Port of Berbera.

Strategic rationale: Berbera's strategic location offers a security edge, crucial for countering threats like the Houthis' targeting of shipping routes.

Greece, affected by the disruption, could benefit from Somaliland's strategic positioning to enhance maritime security.

Diplomatic opportunity: With its secure environment and effective governance, Somaliland represents an opportunity for Greece to extend its diplomatic influence beyond the Mediterranean.

Following Israel's lead, Greece could reinforce its commitment to democracy and stability by recognizing Somaliland, aligning with moderate, law-abiding maritime nations.

Recognizing Somaliland would not only bolster regional security but also affirm Greece's role as a leader in promoting democratic values and economic prosperity.

To read the full article, click here.

The Year in Review: Israel at a Turning Point

Thousands gather in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, to watch live feeds and celebrate as the final twenty Israeli hostages are released after 737 days in captivity. Shutterstock

By: Alex Selsky

The year 2025 marked a turning point for Israel, starting with the pivotal operation against Hezbollah and the landmark strike on Iran.

Why it matters: On June 13, Israel launched a major air operation against Iran, targeting nuclear and missile facilities and assassinating key military leaders, marking the first open military confrontation between Israel and Iran.

This bold move was followed by Iran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks, killing 30 Israeli civilians, and a ceasefire brokered by Washington after the U.S. also struck Iran's Fordow nuclear facility.

Gaza conflict: The Gaza war peaked with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire involving hostage releases, prisoner exchanges, and expanded humanitarian aid, marking a significant recovery phase for Israeli society.

President Trump's visit during the ceasefire underscored international involvement in stabilizing the region.

Domestic politics: Political tensions centered on conscription disputes with Haredi parties, yet the coalition survived a no-confidence vote, moving closer to its first full term in decades.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's replacement of senior security leaders was framed as a shift from past leadership criticized for the October 7, 2023, failures.

Economic resilience: Israel's economy showed signs of recovery, with the shekel strengthening and the tech sector raising $15.6 billion in private funding.

High-profile deals, including Google's acquisition of Wiz for $32 billion, highlighted economic confidence.

International dynamics: Despite military prowess, Israel faced campaigns targeting its legitimacy, leading to increased support for Palestinian state recognition by several Western countries.

Rising antisemitism culminated in a deadly attack at a Hanukkah event in Bondi, Australia, highlighting growing international challenges.

As Israel navigates these complex dynamics, the coming year will test its ability to leverage military deterrence, political stability, and economic resilience into a cohesive long-term strategy.

To read the full article, click here.

Why October 7 Didn't Ignite the West Bank

The West Bank remained largely quiet after October 7, defying expectations of a wider uprising. Shutterstock

By: Jonathan Spyer

In the past two years, conflict has engulfed the Middle East, sparked by the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023. However, the West Bank and Arab Israeli population have notably remained out of the fray.

Why it matters: This absence defies expectations, as past conflicts saw unrest spreading across these regions, fueled by tensions around al-Aqsa mosque.

During the 2021 conflict, fears of a widespread insurgency were heightened by protests at over 200 sites in the West Bank and parts of Israel.

Key factors: Arab Israelis, witnessing Hamas's indiscriminate violence that affected both Jewish and Arab citizens on October 7, opted for stability by remaining within Israel.

Documents found in Gaza by the IDF revealed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar anticipated a larger uprising would follow the October 7 attacks, which did not materialize.

West Bank dynamics: The region has seen Israeli security actions quelling nascent militias in Tulkarem and Jenin, with the tacit cooperation of the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Despite ongoing support for Hamas, the PA's reluctance to join Hamas's war and its cooperation with Israel have maintained a fragile stability.

As of now, the tentative confluence of interests between Jerusalem and Ramallah, alongside focused Israeli security measures, sustains the relative calm in the West Bank, though this balance remains delicate.

To read the full article, click here.

Will Trump's Gaza Coalition Repeat Bush's Afghanistan and Lebanon Mistakes?

Washington's push for an international stabilization force in Gaza raises questions about whether coalition politics can deliver security—or repeat past failures. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's proposal for an International Stabilization Force in Gaza faces significant hurdles.

Why it matters: The plan aims to replace Hamas's rule with international oversight, but the disarmament requirement could lead to violent confrontations.

Turkey and Pakistan's potential involvement raises concerns, as their past actions suggest alignment with Islamist interests rather than peacekeeping.

Key concerns: Allowing Turkish forces, under President Erdoğan, known for Islamist sympathies, could empower Hamas rather than subdue it.

Turkey's historical negligence in curbing extremist growth in Iraq and Syria underscores the risk of its involvement in Gaza.

Diplomatic pitfalls: Rubio's attempt to involve Pakistan mirrors past NATO mistakes in Afghanistan, where participation was marred by restrictive caveats.