MEF Dispatch: Beware the New Syrian Regime

пятница, 7 ноября 2025 г.

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View on web  |  Read what you missed Beware the New Syrian Regime; Hamas's False Statistics; Hezbollah Digs In By Winfield Myers ● Nov 07, 2025 Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...1969 words In an article and a recent podcast appearance, Sirwan Kajjo warns that when Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa visits the White House next week, his country should not be allowed to join the anti-ISIS coalition. Syria's disjointed military, rife with jihadist factions, has massacred minorities. Instead, the U.S. should ensure that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces remain intact in any integration with the Syrian military. Michael Rubin argues that no one should be shocked that the international press corps, United Nations officials, and human rights groups champion the false statistics on civilian casualties and privation in Gaza promulgated by the "Hamas Health Ministry." The same game was played years ago by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein—and the same actors spread the lies uncritically. Amatzia Baram, in a detailed analysis of efforts to disarm Hezbollah, writes that Israel's military and political leaders say that the prewar policy of "quiet will be answered with quiet" is now replaced with prevention. Given what happened in October 2023, no Israeli government will be able to abandon this new policy. We also include articles by Elizabeth Samson, Lazar Berman, Raymond Ibrahim, and Fernando Carvajal. It Is a Mistake to Bring Syria Into the Anti-Islamic State Global Coalition Now By: Sirwan Kajjo Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa is scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington in November, the first visit by a Syrian leader to the White House. During the trip, al-Sharaa is set to sign an agreement to join the global coalition against the Islamic State. Why it matters: With Syria at the heart of the fight against ISIS, this move is fraught with risk. Al-Sharaa's military, rife with jihadist factions, poses severe counterterrorism concerns. Al-Sharaa's government seeks legitimacy, but fragmented forces and Russian ties hinder genuine cooperation. The big picture: The alliance with the U.S. could stabilize Syria, yet al-Sharaa's ties to extremist groups undermine this potential. Syrian forces' militia-like behavior and foreign allegiances complicate efforts. The potential integration into the global coalition seems more a power consolidation tactic than a genuine commitment to counterterrorism. What's next: The U.S. must ensure the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which controls nearly one-third of Syria's territory, are central in any military integration. These forces are pivotal in counterterrorism, and their exclusion would jeopardize stability. Washington should demand key military roles for SDF commanders to ensure Syria's commitment aligns with U.S. interests. The stakes: Without solid integration, Syria's participation in the coalition could backfire, destabilizing the region further. The U.S. risks empowering a government that might not fully counter ISIS, complicating regional security. To read the full article, click here. Sirwan Kajjo on Syria: The Syrian Democratic Forces and What Comes Next By: Marilyn Stern Sirwan Kajjo, a journalist and author specializing in Kurdish politics, shared insights on the challenges facing Syria's new government during a recent Middle East Forum podcast. Why it matters: The integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into Syria's defense system is fraught with tension. Clashes between SDF and Damascus-backed forces highlight ongoing instability. The Kurdish forces seek genuine authority within the new Syrian state, but negotiations with Damascus remain strained. The big picture: Despite a formal agreement, the Syrian state struggles to exert control over its diverse factions. The Kurdish community's involvement is crucial for Syria's stability, but Damascus's fractured alliances pose a significant challenge. Turkey's influence and military actions against Kurdish enclaves further complicate the situation. What's next: The U.S. plays a crucial mediating role, aiming to merge the SDF into a unified Syrian military. By facilitating dialogue, the U.S. hopes to strengthen Syria's ability to combat ISIS and maintain regional stability. Washington's involvement underscores its commitment to countering extremist threats while balancing its strategic interests with Turkey. The stakes: Aligning with strongmen without integrating diverse communities risks further conflict. For stability, Syria requires inclusive governance that accounts for all societal components, especially amid the threat of rising Islamist power. To read the summary and watch the entire podcast, click here. Why Fall for Hamas's False Statistics? By: Michael Rubin On October 7, 2023, in a shocking breach of ceasefire, Hamas launched a brutal attack killing nearly 1,200 Israelis—marking the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. Israel's military response was swift and forceful, aimed at dismantling Hamas's terrorist infrastructure. Why it matters: Israel's campaign in Gaza has become a benchmark for combating enemies entrenched within civilian populations. While critics shout genocide, the facts reveal a drastically low non-combatant death toll, with precision strikes and over a million civilian evacuations. The big picture: Despite Israel's strategic precision, accusations persist, fueled by Hamas's manipulation of narratives. The so-called Gaza Health Ministry, a Hamas puppet, perpetuates false statistics, echoing Saddam Hussein's deceitful tactics. What's next: Media and global watchdogs must confront their complicity in propagating these falsehoods. A critical reassessment is necessary to restore credibility and focus on genuine threats to peace and stability. The stakes: Without accountability, the credibility of international entities continues to erode. Trusting narratives from regimes like Hamas and Saddam only undermines efforts for real progress and stability in the region. To read the full article, click here. Palestinian Terrorists Don't Deserve Prison Visits By: Elizabeth Samson The International Court of Justice's October 22, 2025, Advisory Opinion on "Obligations of Israel" reveals a glaring moral and legal double standard. Why it matters: The court labels Israel as an occupier, ignoring terrorist infiltration of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) and legitimizing the October 7, 2023, massacre of 1,200 Israelis. Its silence on Israeli hostages contrasts starkly with demands for Red Cross access to Palestinian detainees, highlighting bias. The big picture: The Red Cross and International Court of Justice's selective advocacy undermines their humanitarian credibility. While they demand access to terrorists, they neglect the rights of Israeli victims, reversing humanitarian principles. What's next: Legal distinctions between "lawful" and "unlawful" combatants justify restricted Red Cross access to terrorists. Israel's High Court is reviewing the balance between national security and humanitarian obligations, reflecting a functioning legal system. The stakes: The hypocrisy of international demands erodes trust in humanitarian institutions. Until all victims' rights are equally recognized, international advocacy remains hollow, damaging the long-term reputations of these global entities. To read the full article, click here. Hamas Is Afraid Gaza Will Become Lebanon. So Is Israel By: Lazar Berman After initial excitement, President Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza faces significant hurdles. Why it matters: Despite ongoing visits by senior U.S. officials to Kiryat Gat, Trump's plan is stalling due to resistance at multiple levels. Hamas has protracted the handover of slain hostages, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire. The big picture: The Trump administration is pushing a UN Security Council resolution to support peacekeeping forces. Arab mediators, led by Egypt, are attempting to form an interim administration for Gaza to prevent it from becoming another Lebanon. What's next: Both Israel and Hamas are maneuvering to avoid a Lebanon-like scenario where the IDF maintains strike freedom. Hamas seeks to limit Israel's military reach, fearing a repeat of Lebanon's disarmament process. The stakes: Israel aims to ensure Hamas disarms and steps back from governance, but Hamas is keen on retaining its arms and control. The ongoing struggle may undermine Israel's perceived victory, enabling Hamas to maintain influence in Gaza. Read the full article at the Times of Israel. Hezbollah's Refusal to Disarm Risks Lebanon's Stability By: Amatzia Baram In August, Lebanon, pressured by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, voted to disarm Hezbollah by year-end, without support from Hezbollah and Amal ministers who protested. Why it matters: This decision comes with promises of U.S. and Gulf financial aid contingent on Hezbollah laying down arms. Disarmament is structured in phases, with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) tasked to complete the process, starting south of the Litani River. The big picture: Hezbollah's military decline is evident, but the group retains significant influence and threatens civil unrest. Despite losing parliamentary clout, Hezbollah's ability to block votes remains, complicating full disarmament. What's next: U.S. and French pressure could push Lebanon towards a clear disarmament timetable. Israel's cooperation is crucial, as its withdrawal might aid Lebanon's efforts to neutralize Hezbollah in other regions. Israeli flyovers and bombing of Hezbollah's positions can only stop once the entire organization is disarmed across the country. The stakes: Without swift action, Hezbollah could recover militarily and politically, threatening Lebanon's stability. Tehran's distractions and Lebanon's economic crisis provide a window for reform, but time is limited. The Israeli military and political leaders say that the previous 2006-2023 policy of "quiet will be answered with quiet" is now replaced with prevention. Given what happened in October 2023, no Israeli government will be able to abandon this new policy. To read the full article, click here. Egypt's 'Reconciliation Sessions': The Terrorized Submit to the Terrorist By: Raymond Ibrahim Following Friday prayers on October 24, 2025, a large Muslim mob attacked Coptic Christians in Nazlet Gelf, Minya, Egypt, over rumored interfaith relations. Why it matters: The attack, fueled by sharia's prohibition on non-Muslim men with Muslim women, highlights systemic issues in Egypt's treatment of Copts. Security forces intervened only after damage was done, and the authorities resorted to a "reconciliation session" that punished the victims without legal proceedings. The big picture: These sessions, masquerading as communal resolution, reinforce a hierarchy where Copts are marginalized. Egyptian law, justice, and constitutional protections are bypassed, encouraging further attacks on the Christian minority. What's next: Such state-approved sessions embolden attackers, ensuring victims remain vulnerable. Without legal accountability, these incidents perpetuate a cycle of violence, discrimination, and forced displacement for Copts. The stakes: The state quietly approves, the law is bypassed, and the discrimination and violence continues with official acquiescence. As long as attackers go unpunished, the cycle of violence and coercion against Christians will continue. To read the full article, click here. The Houthi-Sudan Nexus Grows By: Fernando Carvajal Yemen's Houthis and Sudan's Transitional Sovereignty Council, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are strengthening ties, expanding beyond arms trade to use Port Sudan as a funnel for oil and fuel to Houthi-controlled Hudaydah. Why it matters: This collaboration involves Sudan offering a lifeline for Iranian oil and weapons, undermining U.S. and Israeli efforts to curb Houthi influence. Observers warn of a "Red Sea axis of convenience," expanding Iran's proxy influence across the Horn of Africa. The big picture: The Houthis, bolstered by Sudan, threaten regional stability, with implications for freedom of navigation and control over Yemen's Red Sea coastline. The U.S. Treasury highlights the Houthis' financial networks exploiting petroleum imports to sustain their war efforts. What's next: U.S. policymakers must address this growing alliance, as failure to act could see Houthi influence expand further across East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Continued military and economic pressure is vital to counter this emerging threat. The stakes: Ignoring the Houthi resurgence risks exacerbating threats to regional security and global shipping routes. The expansion of illicit networks poses a significant challenge to the regional energy and security order. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: Keep the United Nations Out of Gaza By: Michael Rubin Neither the state department nor other foreign ministries should accept the fiction that U.N. Mandates are necessary or effective. Why Young Activists Believe Palestinian Freedom Requires Israeli Destruction By: Miriam Haart Rather than building a state, Hamas took over Gaza and used it as a launching pad for rockets and terrorism. Spain's Gaza Decree Is a Strategic Mistake By: Amine Ayoub It is exactly the opposite of what Europe and the West should be doing at a time of heightened danger. We appreciate your continued support of the Middle East Forum and your reliance on MEF to bring you a steady stream of analyses and reports about the region and its influences on our world. If you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch, please forward it to a friend and let us know your thoughts in the comments section. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? 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