1000 баксов за месяц: MEF Dispatch: Yemen: A First-Hand Report and Multiple Analyses; Decentralizing Syria

понедельник, 15 сентября 2025 г.

Yemen: A First-Hand Report and Multiple Analyses; Decentralizing Syria

By Winfield Myers ● Sep 15, 2025

Smart Brevity^® count: 9 mins...2368 words

We devote five articles to analyzing the fluid situation in Yemen, beginning with Jonathan Spyer's first-hand report from his recent trip to the area. Michael Rubin's three articles examine both internal developments in Yemen and what is required for more effective U.S. diplomacy. Khaled Alyemany dissects the anti-Houthi coalition in the wake of Israel's recent strike on Houthi leaders.

The rest of this issue is devoted to the latest developments in Syria. Jonathan Spyer analyzes Sweida province's Druze population, which in the face of massacres by the central government has "raised the Israeli flag" and thanked the Israelis for coming to their defense. Sirwan Kajjo makes the case for a new, decentralized Syria that respects—rather than kills and suppresses—its minorities. We end with two interviews with Syrians conducted by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi.

Inside Yemen's Endless War: Frontlines, Houthis, and the Battle for Bab El-Mandeb

Soldiers of the Southern Transitional Council's Presidential Guard, Dhale Province, Yemen. Photo: Jonathan Spyer

By: Jonathan Spyer

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a critical battleground between Iran-backed Houthi forces and a coalition of states including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel. This strategic waterway connects the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea, playing a crucial role in global maritime trade.

Why it matters: Ten to twelve percent of the world's maritime trade navigates through this strait annually.

Control here translates to significant geopolitical leverage, affecting trade flows and regional stability.

Houthi threat: The Ansar Allah movement, known as the Houthis, persists as a destabilizing force.

Despite limited missile capabilities compared to Iran, they continue aggressive tactics, including attacks on international shipping.
Their actions, supported by Iran, threaten global trade routes and regional security.

What's next: The Southern Transitional Council (STC) and allies, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are pivotal in countering Houthi advances.

Strengthened international support and coordinated strategies are essential to secure the strait and ensure regional stability.

Strategic importance: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains a vital choke point in the battle for control.

Its narrow passage and dense traffic make it a critical point for controlling maritime routes and exerting geopolitical influence.
To stand a chance against the Houthis in Hodeidah Province, however, it's clear that they will need a sharp increase in international supply in preparation, and almost certainly external air support in carrying out their offensive.
The struggle for primacy in this remote, long-fought-over corner of the Middle East is far from completed.

To read the full article, click here.

Why Is the State Department Embracing Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi?

Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

Rashad al-Alimi, chair of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, is embroiled in controversy, revealing his nepotism and shifting allegiances.

Why it matters: Al-Alimi's appointment of his corrupt brother-in-law as his de facto office director highlights endemic governance failures.

His actions suggest alignment with the Tehran-Baghdad-Sana'a axis, contradicting the interests of pro-coexistence Arab states and undermining Yemen's stability.

Diplomatic gamble: Despite clear signals of mistrust, the U.S. still grants Rashad lower-level meetings, perhaps seeking to maintain a diplomatic foothold in Yemen.

However, his participation in summits condemning Israel, while ignoring Iranian hostilities, reflects poorly on Yemen's international stance.

Absentee leadership: Al-Alimi's preference for Riyadh over Yemen further questions his dedication and legitimacy.

If Rubio's team wishes to receive a Yemeni representative, they should receive one who chooses Yemen over Saudi Arabia or Iran.
If Rubio wants to fulfill Trump's mandate that regional states should take responsibility for their own problems, shutting the door on Rashad would send a message far more resilient.

To read the full article, click here.

ICYMI: "Turkey's Puppets in Damascus" with Efrat Aviv

The dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024 promised an end to decades of tyranny. The new government of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) movement, however, appears to be in the process of reshaping Syria into a Turkish satellite. The new government is sidelining the U.S.-aligned Kurds and igniting sectarian strife in the south and west of the country, under Ankara's shadow. Turkey, meanwhile, is building a military infrastructure in Syria, while maintaining control over its own client militias. What perils await the West if Turkey's grip tightens over the Levant?

Efrat Aviv is an associate professor in the department of general history at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. She is an expert in Turkish religious movements, Israeli-Turkish relations, antisemitism in Turkey, and Ottoman-Turkish Jewry. She holds a B.A., an M.A., and a Ph.D. from Bar-Ilan University.

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

Is Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi Collaborating with the Houthis?

By: Michael Rubin

Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, faces serious allegations as his deputy, Saleh al-Maqaleh, is reportedly under investigation for aiding the Houthis.

Why it matters: Al-Maqaleh's reported arrest by Saudi Intelligence highlights the deep-seated corruption within Yemen's leadership.

His involvement in smuggling and possible collusion with the Houthis reveals systemic failures that empower adversaries rather than uniting against them.

Leadership failure: Despite warnings, Al-Alimi shielded al-Maqaleh from accountability, raising questions about his own complicity or incompetence.

This scandal is just the latest in a series of failures by the Presidential Leadership Council, which has become a platform for factional self-interest rather than national unity.

What's next: The council's collapse seems imminent unless drastic reforms are made. Perhaps the best option for both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the United Arab Emirates, would be to appoint a formal, ceremonial president with two vice presidents, one in charge of governing southern Yemen and the other charged with governing those portions of northern Yemen that Yemeni forces have liberated from Houthi control.

This would imbue each vice president and their political grouping with accountability and stop the tendency for Yemeni ministers to live in comfort abroad rather than among their own constituents.

To read the full article, click here.

Next Steps for the Anti-Houthi Coalition After Israel Decapitated the Houthi Political Leadership

By: Khaled Alyemany

On August 24, 2025, Israel escalated its strategy by targeting Houthi leadership in Sanaa following a Houthi drone attack on Israel, marking a significant shift in the Yemen conflict.

Why it matters: This represents a strategic pivot from traditional warfare to leadership decapitation, aiming to dismantle Houthi command structures.

The strike highlights security breaches within the Houthi ranks and showcases Israel's resolve to disrupt their political and military operations.

Houthi defiance: Despite the severe blow, the Houthis vow retaliation, maintaining their aggressive posture.

Their continued strikes on Israeli civilian and economic targets underscore their commitment to expanding the conflict's reach.

International implications: The failure of international mechanisms to block arms flow to the Houthis exacerbates the conflict.

Coalition efforts need recalibration, focusing on intelligence and partnerships with credible local actors to curb smuggling and strengthen regional stability.

To read the full article, click here.

South Yemen Is Test Case for Post-USAID Humanitarian Relief

A Yemeni soldier pauses in the fight against Houthi militias in South Yemen. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

The dismantling of USAID has spotlighted the U.S.'s shifting foreign aid strategy, focusing now on immediate needs amid Yemen's escalating crisis.

Why it matters: The Iran-backed Houthis' potential control over Yemen poses a threat to strategic waterways and regional stability.

The U.S. must recalibrate its aid to support effective local governance, especially as natural disasters like the recent flooding in Aden exacerbate humanitarian needs.

Urgent need for support: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's promise of robust aid must translate into real action.

Immediate assistance to flood-hit Aden and Lahij could strengthen alliances with the Southern Transitional Council, countering Houthi influence.

Strategic implications: If the United States does not support its local partners in Yemen, it may find that it no longer has any meaningful hooks upon which it can hang its anti-Houthi policies.

Enhanced collaboration with local allies is crucial to maintain regional security and showcase the benefits of opposing Houthi control.

To read the full article, click here.

Sweida's Druze Defy Damascus in a Fight over Self-Determination, Their Fate in Syria

Fighters from Bedouin tribes in Sweida province, Syria, where fierce battles with Druze factions occurred; July 20, 2025. Shutterstock

By: Jonathan Spyer

The Druze community in Sweida has faced severe violence, prompting calls for self-determination and highlighting the region's complex political landscape.

Why it matters: The violence in July resulted in over 1,600 deaths, with international bodies only now recognizing the tragedy's scale.

Sweida's Druze rightly blame the Syrian government forces for the atrocities, accusing them of ethnic cleansing.

Druze determination: In response, large-scale protests demand Druze self-determination and independence, as local leaders form a new national guard.

Sheikh Abu Salman Hikmat al-Hijri leads this movement, supported by significant armed groups despite internal opposition.

International dynamics: The Druze call for autonomy raises practical challenges, including the need for external support and recognition.

Turkey is currently engaged in an energetic effort to transform Damascus into a modern state. If they succeed, and if no one helps increase the capacities of the Druze, Kurds, and other minorities, then a time may come when the Sunni Islamists will succeed in imposing their will over the entire country.
Sweida's Druze are currently organizing to avoid this fate. This has led to the rarely paralleled sight of an Arabic-speaking population in a neighboring country raising the Israeli flag and thanking the Jewish state for its intervention in their defense.
It remains to be seen if this proves to be merely a historical curiosity on the road to a new, centralized Syrian regime, or conversely, a sign of things to come.

To read the full article, click here.

The Case for Decentralization in Syria

The flag of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. By FugeeCamp Wikimedia Commons

By: Sirwan Kajjo

In the wake of Bashar al-Assad's regime collapse, Syria's future governance structure is hotly contested, with decentralization at the forefront.

Why it matters: Local stakeholders advocate for a political structure that grants greater regional autonomy, contrasting with interim authorities' centralized vision.

This reflects Syria's complex ethnic and sectarian dynamics, revealing potential for a protracted struggle over the state's future shape.

U.S. opportunity: The lifting of sanctions presents a chance for the U.S. to influence Syria's path.

Supporting decentralization aligns with U.S. goals to prevent authoritarian rule and promote inclusivity.

Historical perspective: Decentralization is grounded in Syria's past, with early 20th-century frameworks offering a foundation for modern governance.

Embracing local autonomy could mitigate conflict and ensure equitable representation across Syria's diverse communities.

Role of the Kurds: Kurds, who comprise 15 percent of Syria's population, are vocal proponents of decentralization.

Their governance model in northeast Syria highlights the viability of autonomous regions, offering a blueprint for broader implementation across the country.
If Syria has a chance at preventing disintegration and preserving its territorial integrity, it must give serious consideration to building a decentralized system that reflects and embraces the country's ethnic, religious, and sectarian diversity.

To read the full article, click here.

A Veteran of the '313 Force' in Syria: Interview

By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

The "313 Force" was one of the better known Iranian-backed formations in Syria. The information below is drawn from an interview conducted by the author with a person who is from the locality of al-Kafrin (Damascus countryside) and served in the 313 Force, discussing his experiences in the group and his outlook on the present situation.

Why it matters: The disbandment of Iranian-backed groups like the 313 Force highlights shifts in Syria's military landscape.

Many members, like our source, sought stability and refuge from the harsh conditions of the regular army.

Service experiences: The 313 Force offered better conditions than the regular army, with higher pay and more flexible schedules.

However, corruption plagued the military, with officers demanding bribes from soldiers just to remain stationed at home.

Current outlook: Despite recent violence, some locals view the state's treatment and economic conditions as improved post-collapse.

Our source criticizes movements like the Druze seeking independence, labeling them as traitors seeking Zionist support.

To read the full interview, click here.

Interactions with the Israelis in Southern Syria: Interview with a Local in al-Qunaytra

Kudna, Syria, in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Photo: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

By: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

An interview by the author, conducted with a resident of Kudna, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, reveals mixed sentiments about Israeli actions and the broader geopolitical context.

Why it matters: Israeli incursions and the "carrot-and-stick" approach shape local views, affecting the dynamics of normalization and potential insurgencies.

Residents express a desire for peace and stability, hoping for improved living conditions and security.

Local insights: "The people see that the Israeli army is distributing relief aid for the people, and there is a slice of the community that says: 'You must not take this aid.' But the majority are in need and take it."

The community remains divided on accepting aid, with some viewing normalization positively as a path to peace.

Future outlook: The interviewee supports normalization between Syria and Israel, seeing it as a rational step forward despite complexities.

When asked if he supports peace between Syria and Israel, he answers: "Frankly yes, by God. Don't get angry with me if you are against this idea, but we had a regime ruling for 50 years and it was in opposition to Israel, and what were the results? Let us look at the matter from the standpoint of reason, right? In Israel, all the sects live, right? Regardless of events that are happening, but there are hidden things happening on the scene. In my view, peace is inevitably coming, in my opinion."
His message to the Syrian government: "It must reach a solution with Israel just like the rest of the Arab states. The solution is mutual agreement on protection of the borders and signing agreements that guarantee peace for the two sides and joint cooperation to protect the borders in principle."

To read the full interview, click here.