1000 баксов за месяц: MEF Dispatch: Final Act of Israel's Gaza War; What's Next for Iran?

понедельник, 22 сентября 2025 г.

Final Act of Israel's Gaza War; What's Next for Iran?

By Winfield Myers ● Sep 22, 2025

Smart Brevity^® count: 8.5 mins...2282 words

Jonathan Spyer assesses Israel's ongoing push into Gaza, occurring now because Israel "has determined that the authority that carried out the massacres of 7 October must cease to exist." Failure to achieve this goal would invite further aggression, while success will "place the seal on a remarkable two-year campaign in which a region-wide alliance committed to [Israel's] destruction will itself have been defeated and severely damaged."

Seven articles follow that deal with myriad issues concerning Iran. Saeid Golkar writes that military elites haven't sought to topple the regime because of "a system in which loyalty is rewarded, dissent is punished, and defection is nearly impossible." Dalga Khatinoglu argues that impending "snapback" sanctions on Iran could bring down the government because "Iran's economic position in the region is in free fall."

Other authors featured include Shay Khatiri, Mardo Soghom, Khaled Alyemany, and Michael Rubin.

The Final Act of Israel's War in Gaza Is Under Way

While all Israeli military moves are now accompanied by a cacophony of hostile propaganda, against which Israel seems to employ little effort to defend itself, the political and military logic behind ...

By: Jonathan Spyer

Israel's operation to seize control of Gaza City has intensified as it presses ahead, marking a crucial phase in the ongoing conflict.

Why it matters: The IDF's campaign is not just about territorial control; it's a strategic endeavor to dismantle Hamas's authority, which is vital for long-term regional stability and to prevent future escalations.

Achieving this goal will send a powerful message to Israel's adversaries about the consequences of aggression.

Current operations: Two IDF divisions, Division 98 (airborne) and Division 162 (mechanized), are leading the ground assault, with the 36th Division poised to join shortly.

Israeli forces are currently advancing through key neighborhoods like Shejaya, Sheikh Radwan, and Tal al Hawa.

Strategic implications: Successfully neutralizing Hamas in Gaza could culminate Israel's broader two-year campaign against the Iran-led alliance.

Israel has determined that the authority that carried out the massacres of 7 October must cease to exist. For it to happen, the IDF must conquer the totality of the area of that authority's rule. This means taking the remaining 25 per cent of Gaza.
Should this not take place, then despite Israel's other achievements, the dangerous message will be conveyed to the many enemies of the Jewish state that you can carry out a massacre of Israelis and survive, on condition that you take Israeli civilian hostages.

Should it be achieved, then Israel will place the seal on a remarkable two-year campaign in which a region-wide alliance committed to its destruction will itself have been defeated and severely damaged.

To read the full article, click here.

Survival over Defection: Why Iran's Military Elites Stay Loyal

By: Saeid Golkar

Over a 12-day war, Israel unleashed psychological and physical attacks on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), shaking Iran's military hierarchy but failing to cause any defections among commanders.

Why it matters: Despite Israel's intelligence penetration, which helped eliminate high-ranking IRGC officials, Iran's military elites remain loyal due to a system that rewards allegiance and punishes dissent.

Architecture of elite cohesion: The Islamic Republic has spent more than four decades creating a system in which loyalty is rewarded, dissent is punished, and defection is nearly impossible.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei controls key military appointments, with promotions requiring his approval.

Economic incentives: The IRGC has evolved into a military-industrial complex, dominating sectors like oil, construction, and telecommunications, offering commanders wealth to maintain loyalty.

Surveillance and repression: Iran's expansive surveillance system deters dissent through severe punishment for defection.

Even low-ranking personnel face retaliation if they attempt to defect, with Iran's intelligence actively pursuing defectors abroad.

In brief, Iran's military elites remain loyal not out of ideology, but out of survival. With the right combination of pressure and incentives, especially during moments of crisis, the system can be challenged.

To read the full article, click here.

ICYMI: "The Druze and their Prospects in Syria" with Ahmad Sharawi

The Druze of southern Syria, long known for their pragmatism, now face an uncertain future as the country's landscape fractures. Caught between Islamist factions, Iranian-backed militias, and shifting Western interests, they are increasingly vulnerable to sectarian violence. On two occasions since the fall of the Assad regime, the community has faced attacks from forces associated with the new authorities in Damascus. Many lives have been lost. What path forward remains for this small but resilient community, and what do their choices mean for the balance of power in the Levant?

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Previously, Sharawi worked at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he focused mainly on Hezbollah. He holds a B.A. in international relations from King's College London and an M.A. from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

Snapback Is the Final Nail in the Coffin of Iran's 20-Year Development Plan

An old man begs in the street in Iran. Sixty percent of Iranians live below the poverty line. Shutterstock

By: Dalga Khatinoglu

Twenty years ago, Iran launched its "20-Year Development Vision Plan," aiming for regional leadership in economy and science by 2025. Now, its failures are starkly evident.

Why it matters: The plan's collapse highlights Iran's economic and strategic decline, with significant implications for regional stability and its global standing.

Iran aimed to become the region's top economy but now lags behind countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Economic downfall: Iran's GDP, once on the rise, has halved since 2012 due to sanctions and mismanagement.

The national currency has lost 99 percent of its value since 2005.
Employment definitions have been downgraded, with stagnant job growth despite a population increase.

Brain drain: Iran's efforts to lead in science faltered, as 110,000 skilled Iranians emigrated in 2024 alone.

Up to 80 percent of students are considering leaving, and 25 percent of professors have already departed.

The end of the 20-Year Development Vision Plan, however, cannot be swept under the rug. It represents nearly half of the Islamic Republic's existence. By its predictions and standards, there is no question: The regime's leadership has failed, and Iran's economic position in the region is in free fall.

To read the full article, click here.

The U.N. Security Council Should Endorse Measures to End Iran's Smuggling Lifeline to Yemen

Outside the United Nations headquarters in New York. Shutterstock

By: Khaled Alyemany

The war in Yemen has dragged on for nearly a decade, but one truth has remained constant: the Houthis would not have survived—let alone expanded their military reach—without Iran's weapons pipeline.

Why it matters: This unchecked support not only destabilizes Yemen but poses a broader threat, challenging international law and regional security.

A recent report by Conflict Armament Research found Iranian missiles with official manufacturing marks in Yemen, highlighting Iran's brazen disregard for sanctions.

International inaction: Despite repeated violations of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216, Iran continues to arm the Houthis.

The Houthis' growing military sophistication is facilitated by Iran's robust smuggling networks.
Corruption and fragmented governance in Yemen further enable these illicit activities.

Strategic response needed: Airstrikes alone won't suffice; a coordinated international strategy is imperative.

Measures should include tighter export controls, maritime domain awareness, and targeting of smuggling networks.
The U.N. must also address internal collusion and empower local partners to effectively counter these threats.

Global responsibility: There is no time to waste. The U.N. Security Council and Yemen's international partners should convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council during the U.N. General Assembly to craft a clear strategy to halt Iran's illicit weapons transfers.

Such action is essential to uphold international law, expose Iran's state-sponsored terrorism, and dismantle the last effective node in its regional proxy network.

To read the full article, click here.

Can the United States Exploit the Return of Iranian Reformism?

Despite the rhetoric coming out of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranians within and outside the regime view the Twelve-Day War as a defeat.

By: Shay Khatiri

In the aftermath of the Twelve-Day War, the Islamic Republic faces a power struggle as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's hold weakens and moderates and reformists voice open critiques.

Why it matters: With Khamenei nearing death, the regime's internal dynamics shift, opening policy disputes and a power struggle over succession.

Khamenei's committee has identified Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini as successors, with President Ebrahim Raisi, now deceased, likely considered.
The weakened state of the regime is sparking unprecedented open criticism from sidelined officials.

Voices of dissent: On August 12, 2025, former President Hassan Rouhani criticized Iran's foreign policy and relations with the world, framing his speech as a potential bid for leadership.

Rouhani emphasized building popular support and reformist policies, while maintaining a hard stance on Israel.

Strategic implications: Reformists and moderates are rallying for national reconciliation, advocating for "rule by the people" and a shift from hostility. This internal discord could lead to regime instability, with Ahmadinejad promoting liberal candidates to succeed Khamenei.

All factions want to preserve the Islamic Republic, which in any form will be unacceptable to most Iranians, be an enemy of Israel, and, at best, antagonize America.
In the coming months and years, the primary objective of U.S. policy should be furthering these divisions and ensuring that no single man will succeed Khamenei. Reformists are untrustworthy, but they have found their voice again and are criticizing the weakened Khamenei. There is utility in cynically promoting them to divide the regime.

To read the full article, click here.

Iran Resists Its Own Japan-Style Reckoning

By: Mardo Soghom

Today marks the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender in WWII, a poignant parallel for Iran as it faces renewed U.N. sanctions and potential Israeli airstrikes.

Why it matters: Iran's military and economy are crippled, echoing Japan's 1945 plight, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei contemplates whether to accept Western terms by the end of September.

Iran insists on uranium enrichment rights, rejected by Washington, while resisting missile and regional interference restrictions.

Strategic miscalculations: Despite openings to change course, Khamenei stalled, leading to devastating Israeli airstrikes that shattered Iran's military assets.

Analysts debate his motivations, from ideological fanaticism to a desire to project strength, risking Iran's future for nuclear pursuits and regional conflicts.

Future implications: With foreign troops absent, Iran may gamble on weathering sanctions and strikes, continuing to negotiate for concessions.

Will the West retreat and give Khamenei more time, or will he be forced to accept the unthinkable—just as Japan's emperor did in August 1945?

To read the full article, click here.

The Future of the Israel-Azerbaijan Partnership: Will It Survive Iran Regime Change?

Perhaps the greatest factor shaping Israel's embrace of Azerbaijan is Israel's calculation that the Islamic Republic of Iran represents Israel's greatest strategic challenge. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

Jerusalem is all-in on Baku, bolstering a 30-year arms-for-energy partnership that fuels Israel's oil consumption and strengthens Azerbaijan's military.

Why it matters: This alliance serves as a deterrent against Iran, Israel's biggest strategic threat, leveraging Azerbaijan's border for intelligence operations.

Israeli media frequently highlights this partnership, underscoring its geopolitical significance.

Future implications: Just as Israel relied on Iranian oil before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, so too will it likely return to the Iranian market, sidelining Azerbaijan. This will come at the expense of Azerbaijan for two reasons:

First, Israel and many of its Western partners will want to support the new Iranian government as it tries to rebuild, recover, perhaps fight remnants of the former regime, and show a generation of Iranians indoctrinated by the Islamic Republic that orientation toward the West pays dividends.
Second, Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel traverse Turkey, giving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the ability to cut off this export.

Geopolitical dynamics: Turkey, poised to replace Iran as Israel's greatest geopolitical foe, could leverage Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel through Turkish routes.

Israeli foreign policy has never been sentimental; rather, it is strictly realist. Forced to make a decision between Azerbaijan and post-Islamic Republic Iran, Israel will choose Iran.

For Washington and Jerusalem, short-term advantage is important, but long-term success also requires playing the long game.

To read the full article, click here.

Iran's Role in Deploying Middle Eastern Militias to the War in Ukraine

Russian troops are getting assistance in the Ukraine war from fighters from Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Shutterstock

By: Dalga Khatinoglu

Russia's deployment of North Korean and Middle Eastern fighters to Ukraine has drawn global attention, highlighting Iran's covert role in the conflict.

Why it matters: Iran's influence extends beyond arms supply, leveraging deception to recruit fighters from Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen to support Russian forces.

Iraq's Shafaq News reports over 5,000 Iraqis have joined Russian units since the war began, often lured by false promises of jobs and migration opportunities.

Recruitment tactics: Many Iraqis are recruited through human trafficking networks or under the guise of tourism, with offers of $2,000 to $3,000 to fight in Ukraine.

Contracts with the Russian army formalize these arrangements, echoing Iran's past incentives during the Syrian conflict.

Iran's strategic role: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mobilized Afghan and Pakistani militias for Syria, with similar methods likely used for Ukraine.

Iran's cooperation with Russia now includes more than arms transfers, raising concerns about regional stability and diplomatic repercussions.

While Russia uses North Korean soldiers as "cannon fodder," the fate of the tens of thousands of Iran-backed proxy forces sent to Russia remains largely unknown.

To read the full article, click here.