MEF Dispatch: A 'Chalice of Poison' for Khamenei; Picking a Winner Among the Iranian Opposition

четверг, 19 июня 2025 г.

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View on web|Read what you missed A 'Chalice of Poison' for Khamenei; Picking a Winner Among the Iranian Opposition By Winfield Myers ● Jun 19, 2025 Smart Brevity® count: 7 mins...1856 words Recalling the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's 1988 broadcast to his nation that the end of the Iran-Iraq war was "like drinking from a chalice of poison," Michael Rubin writes that it's time for Supreme Leader Khamenei to drink from his own chalice of poison—and surrender. We feature a second article by Rubin in which he argues that Western nations and the United Nations should withdraw recognition of the Islamic Republic, the better to deny any legitimacy to the regime. Shay Khatiri says that America must pick a winner among the Iranian opposition lest chaos ensue should the government fall. The Iranian diaspora being "crowded with factions and infighting," the only solution is for the U.S. to "pick its favorite and stick with it." We end with another piece by Khatiri and a heartfelt call by Giulio Meotti for the West to come to Israel's aid. Support MEF's Iran Freedom Initiative The Islamist regime in Iran has gone dark—and its collapse is accelerating. Six days ago, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" against Iran's nuclear facilities and Revolutionary Guard leadership. Today, the Islamic Republic imposed a near-total internet blackout across the entire nation. They cannot hide what is happening: the systematic dismantling of every pillar of their power. The Middle East Forum's moment has arrived—and we are seizing it with both hands. Despite this, the Middle East Forum's Iran Freedom Initiative continues to operate in full compliance with United States law through secure channels, providing strategic support to resistance groups and delivering real-time intelligence and analysis to global audiences. Over the past week, our teams have: Maintained contact with networks inside Iran despite the blackout Documented key military and nuclear site strikes confirmed by international sources Tracked the collapse of Iran's financial infrastructure through unprecedented cyberattacks Delivered expert analysis and media outreach to inform policymakers and the public We have prepared for this moment through years of careful planning and relationship building. Our Iran Freedom Initiative represents the only comprehensive operational plan to channel this military pressure into lasting political transformation. While others debate policy papers, our teams operate on the ground, providing the tools and support that transform uprising into revolution. The regime's loss of control, both militarily and digitally, opens a narrow window for lasting change. With continued effort, and by working together, we can help Iranians take the next step toward freedom and democratic governance. To support the Iran Freedom Initiative, click here. To visit the Iran War Monitor website, click here. America Must Pick a Winner Among the Iranian Opposition By: Shay Khatiri Israel has focused its operations on weakening Iran's internal suppression mechanisms, notably targeting figures like police commander Ahmad-Reza Radan. These are not targets that pose threats to Israel; they are obstacles to an Iranian uprising. Why it matters: The end of the Islamic Republic is likelier than ever, but a popular uprising that topples the regime could leave the world worse off. The regime's failure to fulfill its revolutionary promises has eroded its support, with only 10-20 percent of the population backing the state. Many of these are the youthful thugs who populate the paramilitary Basij and put down protests. The stakes: The most optimistic scenario for what comes after the Islamic Republic is a free and secular Iran. But the best-case scenarios rarely come about without the backing of a great power. Without a U.S.-backed succession plan, the regime's collapse could lead to chaos, worse than Syria or Libya's civil wars. The Revolutionary Guard remains a powerful force, and without U.S. intervention, could steer Iran towards a dictatorship. What's next: The U.S. must choose a leader from the Iranian diaspora to guide a transition, avoiding past mistakes seen in Iraq and Libya. Ensuring Khamenei's authority is peacefully transitioned is crucial to prevent further instability. Israel is doing its part to effect the end of the Islamic Republic, and Washington must ensure that its interests are protected in what comes next. To read the full article, click here. Watch: June 19, 2025 | Israel-Iran War Monitor Watch MEF's latest coverage of the Israel-Iran war from June 19, 2025. Our panel examined the prospects for the United States to drop a GBU-57 "bunker buster" bomb on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, the potential for targeting Ayatollah Khamenei, the Iranian regime's stability, and other pressing topics. On today's panel of staff and analysts, we were joined by: Gregg Roman MEF Executive Director Jim Hanson MEF Chief Editor Winfield Myers MEF Managing Editor, Campus Watch Director Eric Navarro MEF Director of Military and Strategy Programs Michael Rubin MEF Director of Policy Analysis Alex Selsky MEF Knesset Liaison To watch the full broadcast, click here. Iran Now Must Drink 'A Chalice of Poison' By: Michael Rubin On July 20, 1988, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini got on the radio to announce the end of the Iran-Iraq War. "It's like drinking from a chalice of poison," he said, but his regime's survival depended on taking a sip. Why it matters: Israel's strikes expose the futility of relying solely on diplomacy. The real objective: dismantle Iran's nuclear threat decisively. Tehran's so-called diplomacy often hides its intent to buy time, not pursue peace. The stakes: History shows Iran's leaders prioritize survival over ideology, as Khomeini did in 1988. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must now choose: abandon nuclear dreams or risk regime collapse. What's next: The U.S. must focus on outcomes, not process. With Khamenei's regime teetering, Trump's pressure could deliver the decisive blow. No more concessions; it's time for bold action. Bottom line: Iran's defiance of global norms has left it vulnerable. Trump must intensify pressure, forcing Khamenei to sip from his own "chalice of poison" and abandon nuclear ambitions. To read the full article, click here. ICYMI – "After the Strike: The Future of Tehran's Proxies" with David Daoud For decades, Iran's network of proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others—formed a formidable "Axis of Resistance," projecting Tehran's influence across the Middle East. Yet, Israel's 2025 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and IRGC leadership, followed by devastating retaliatory campaigns, have left these groups reeling. From Hezbollah's decimation in Lebanon to Hamas's weakened grip in Gaza, Iran's once-mighty proxies face an uncertain future. How did Iran's strategy of proxy warfare shape the region's conflicts? What do these setbacks mean for Tehran's regional ambitions, its proxies' survival, and the shifting balance of power? David Daoud is a senior fellow at FDD focused on Lebanon and Hezbollah. He previously worked as a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, director of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and a research analyst at FDD. David also has experience working as a staff member on Capitol Hill providing analysis on matters related to the Middle East, Israel, and Iran. His work has been cited or published in outlets including Haaretz, Foreign Policy, Newsweek, New York Times, Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. David holds a JD with a concentration in International Law and the Laws of Armed Conflict from Suffolk University in Boston. To watch the full podcast episode, click here. The West and U.N. Should Withdraw Recognition of the Islamic Republic By: Michael Rubin As Iranians defiantly chant "Death to Khamenei," the West must strip the Islamic Republic of its legitimacy, aligning with the people's call for change. Why it matters: The time for appeasement is over. Withdrawing recognition of Khamenei's regime will empower the Iranian populace and challenge their oppressors directly. Trump's swift departure from the G7 to tackle Iran's nuclear challenge highlights the urgency for decisive action. The stakes: Until Obama's presidency, the U.S. has addressed the Iranian people directly, bypassing the regime in Nowruz greetings. Now, it's imperative for Western nations to echo this stance formally, withdrawing recognition to bolster Iranian resolve. What's next: The U.N. and global powers have set precedents, as seen with Afghanistan and Venezuela, by withholding recognition until a legitimate governance structure emerges. Dismantling Khamenei's facade of legitimacy will define future negotiations and support Iran's transition to freedom. Bottom line: Liberal democracies should act decisively, offering Khamenei the "chalice of poison"—ensuring his own survival and perhaps a safe passage to become former Syrian leader Bashar Assad's roommate in Moscow, while paving the path for Iran's liberation and future. To read the full article, click here. Disconnecting the Internet Foreshadows Iran Using Its People as Human Shields By: Shay Khatiri Iran has shut down its internet, reducing connectivity to three percent to control the narrative during its conflict with Israel. Why it matters: This blackout aims to suppress Iranian dissent and manipulate international perception by controlling information flow. Israel has used online warnings to reduce civilian casualties, but Iran's blackout blocks these efforts, endangering lives. The stakes: Iran positions military assets in civilian areas, using citizens as human shields, reminiscent of Hamas tactics. The regime's narrative control seeks to prevent morale collapse among security forces and curb potential uprisings. What's next: As Iran's missile capabilities falter, the regime's desperation grows, risking internal rebellion. The information blackout prevents public exposure of regime weakness, crucial for maintaining its facade of strength. The more the ayatollah is exposed for not wearing clothes, the more concerns in the United States and Europe about a conflict will ease. Bottom line: This war further exacerbates the cleavage between the people and the state, exposing how their interests are mutually exclusive. After the war, the Islamic Republic will have to reckon with the fact that the foreign belligerents showed more concern for Iranian lives than did the Iranian regime that was too willing to use them as a decoy. To read the full article, click here. Israelis Need Western Help. One Day the West Will Need Theirs By: Giulio Meotti In 2011, the author foresaw the potential for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear capacity; now, precision strikes target key regime figures and the Natanz facility. Why it matters: Iran's nuclear ambitions, dubbed the "Islamic bomb," threaten to make it the supreme ruler of West Asia, empowering radical Islam and destabilizing global security. Iran's continued support for terrorism and the potential for a nuclear-armed state is a risk that extends far beyond the region. The stakes: Iran's ballistic missiles, capable of reaching Israel and Europe, underscore the existential threat. The West's failure to take Islamic fanaticism seriously could lead to catastrophic outcomes, as history warns. What's next: The West faces a choice: appease Iran or confront the nuclear threat that endangers civilization. "In this troubled hour, the civilized world seems tired of its own civilization. It no longer wants to hear about survival. In their concern for the decay of civilization and in their pride, the Israelis have something to teach the world."—Saul Bellow Bottom line: The West must recognize the grave threat posed by Iran's nuclear program and stand with Israel in its defense against this existential danger. To read the full article, click here. This marks our fourth special daily Dispatch coverage of Israel's war with Iran—a feat made possible by our authors' determination to keep you informed about this ongoing story. If you found this useful to understanding the conflict, please forward it to a friend. And please use the comments section to let us know your opinion. Thank you, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government. Copyright © 2024 Middle East Forum, All rights reserved. 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