MEF Dispatch: Iran's Race for the Bomb, the Shift to 'Post Islamism,' and Eastern Med Matters

среда, 5 марта 2025 г.

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View on web|Read what you missed MEF Dispatch: Iran's Race for the Bomb, the Shift to 'Post Islamism,' and Eastern Med Matters By Winfield Myers ● Mar 05, 2025 Smart Brevity® count: 5.5 mins...1465 words Internal signs that Iran is racing to build a nuclear weapon and the steps the U.S. can take to fracture the Islamic Republican Guard Corps begin today's edition. We then analyze Azerbaijan's sham trials of Armenian leaders from the ethnically-cleansed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and recommend U.S. action. Drawing on a recent podcast, we examine the possibility of an emergent "post-Islamism" in Syria before ending with two articles on Turkey's threats to Greece's security and conclude that if the French sell Turkey missiles that imperil Greece, the U.S. can sell Greece missiles that threaten Turkey's planned aircraft carrier. Touché. Impeachments and Resignations Suggest Iran May Be Readying a Mad Dash to a Nuclear Bomb By: Shay Khatiri Iran's parliament sacked Minister of Economy and Financial Affairs Abdolnasser Hemmati, seen as an economic pragmatist, on March 2, 2025, signaling a shift towards probably strengthening of its nuclear program. Why it matters: Hemmati's dismissal underscores the hardliners' dominance and the prioritization of nuclear development over economic reform in the face of a return to President Trump's return to "maximum pressure" on the regime. Hemmati's impeachment marks a pivot to a "resistance economy," diverting focus from foreign investment to nuclear capability. Driving the news: Hemmati's calls for reducing foreign tensions conflicted with the regime's prioritization of its nuclear ambitions over its economic strength. His advocacy for sanctions relief on oil exports to stabilize the economy was at odds with strategic goals to enhance Iran's nuclear arsenal. What's next: Iran is likely to accelerate its nuclear weaponization efforts. President Pezeshkian's administration might pursue a diplomatic path, but Khamenei only allows diplomacy in the hope it will delay a military attack long enough for Iran to complete its nuclear project. To read the full article, click here. MEF Employer Matching Program Your tax-deductible gift powers our mission to uncover extremist networks, transform public debate, and advance strategic policies through key partnerships. As global threats intensify, your support ensures we continue delivering measurable impact. To find out if your employer can match your tax-deductible gift to MEF through our employer matching program, click here. Why Sanctions Alone Won't Stop Iran—The IRGC Must Be Fractured By: Michael Rubin The United States has a persistent challenge in its approach to Iran, with a history of undermining its own victories by failing to address the core issues within the Iranian regime. Why it matters: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps act as a Praetorian Guard, protecting the regime from internal dissent and maintaining its power. Fragmenting this organization is essential for any substantial change in Iran's political landscape. The good new: there are fissures with the Guards to exploit. Current strategy: Maximum Pressure has historically proven effective, but its limitations are evident. Without further actions, Tehran may simply outlast this approach by waiting for a friendlier president in Washington, a tactic made easier with its strengthened ties to China. What's next: To effectively address the Iranian threat, the U.S. must combine sanctions with targeted efforts to maximize Revolutionary Guard fragmentation. Offering medical care to IRGC veterans and asylum to defectors could weaken the organization's cohesion and effectiveness. To read the full article, click here. The State Department Should Send Observers to Azerbaijan's Armenia Show Trials By: Elizabeth Samson Azerbaijan's seizure and ethnic cleansing of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh included capturing Artsakh leaders, now enduring show trials that began on January 17, 2025. Why it matters: These trials, including that of billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, are a blatant attack on democracy and an attempt to formally erase the presence of the displaced 1,700-year-old Armenian Christian community. The U.S. must not stand by as Azerbaijan executes ethnic cleansing under the guise of legal proceedings to force Artsakh into its own territory. Current situation: Vardanyan, facing life imprisonment and on a hunger strike, symbolizes the fight against Azerbaijan's sham trials. Azerbaijan's regime flagrantly violates international law, mocking justice and human rights. What's next: The U.S. administration should act immediately. By sending diplomats to observe the trials, the U.S. can expose the injustices. If Azerbaijan blocks observation or fails to meet international legal standards, decisive sanctions should follow. To read the full article, click here. Middle East Forum 2025 Policy Conference – additional speakers announced, discounted tickets! Join us at the Middle East Forum's 2025 Policy Conference, taking place May 19–21 in Washington, D.C. Statecraft Reimagined will gather leading experts, diplomats, and policymakers to discuss the most urgent and complex issues shaping the future of the Middle East. This extraordinary event is poised to be the premier Middle East policy gathering in D.C. this year, offering unparalleled insights, networking, and strategic guidance. We are also pleased to announce that, thanks to a generous contribution from an anonymous donor, we are able to offer a select number of general admission tickets at a discounted rate of $550. These tickets are available on a first-come, first-served basis. Be sure to get yours now. To register, click here. Hussein Aboubakr Mansour: The Shift Towards Post-Islamism By Marilyn Stern Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) overthrew the Assad regime in Syria and has taken control of parts of the country under interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, stirring significant regional uncertainty. Why it matters: HTS's shift from its Islamist roots to "post-Islamism" could well be a tactical move to consolidate power, raising red flags about their true intentions. Their claim of prioritizing governance over jihadism should be viewed skeptically, given their past. However, there is the possibility of a genuine evolution towards "post-Islamist Islamism." Current situation: While HTS promises reform, their jihadist origins and some of their recent actions suggest potential backsliding into extremism. The international community must remain vigilant, understanding that power could exacerbate rather than moderate HTS's ideology. What's next: It is impossible to draw firm conclusions at the present time regarding HTS's intentions, but caution is the order of the day. Monitoring HTS's interactions with the Syrian Democratic Forces and regional influences will be key to gauging their commitment to genuine change. To read the full article, click here. Why Is France Undermining Security in the Eastern Mediterranean? By Babak Taghvaee On February 10-11, 2025, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited Paris, urging France to halt its missile sale to Turkey, a plea that was declined. Why it matters: France's sale of Meteor missiles to Turkey could shift the regional balance of power, threatening Greece and Israel. Turkey's acquisition undermines Greece's air defense, as Erdoğan eyes Greek territories. Current situation: Turkey's military ambitions, bolstered by French missiles, challenge Greek sovereignty and Israel's air superiority. The Meteors' range offers Turkey a strategic advantage, echoing past French arms deals that compromised allies' security. What's next: The U.S. should leverage its position with missile-producer MBDA to block the sale, preserving regional stability. Preventing Turkey from acquiring these missiles would mitigate threats to Greece and Israel, ensuring peace and security. To read the full article, click here. Give Greece Carrier-Killer Missiles: The West Should Take Turkey's Ambitions Seriously By: Michael Rubin Greece, a pivotal NATO member, faces escalating threats from Turkey, which seeks to increase its power through military buildup and territorial expansion. Why it matters: Turkey's ambitions, including plans for a national aircraft carrier, pose a direct threat to Greece and the region. Turkish President Erdoğan's aggressive military expansion could destabilize the eastern Mediterranean. A Turkish aircraft carrier fitted to fly the latest drones and fighter jets could change the operational environment across the Mediterranean Current situation: Turkey's military aspirations extend far beyond its borders, as it already has bases and training camps in the Middle East and Africa. France's sale of advanced missiles to Turkey only exacerbates the threat to Greece and its allies. What's next: Greece must strengthen its defense capabilities, including carrier-killer missiles as a strategic countermeasure. The U.S. should collaborate with Greece on advanced missile technology to ensure Greece's security against Turkey and the stability of the region. To read the full article, click here. Further Reading: "Internet Access Can Complement 'Maximum Pressure' on the Iranian Regime" By: Aidin Panahi Washington has taken proactive steps in the past to ensure internet access for vulnerable populations. "A Syrian Shi'i Perspective on Events in Syria" By: Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi A native Syrian Shi'i and former soldier reflects on his time in the Iranian-backed militia al-Ghalibun and the Syrian army, exposing corruption, disillusionment, and shifting sectarian dynamics in the wake of Assad's downfall. "FBI Arrest in New York Exposes Turkey's Role as a Logistics Hub for ISIS-K" By: Abdullah Bozkurt Mounting evidence confirms that ISIS and ISIS-K have been exploiting Turkey as a logistics hub for their operations. At the Middle East Forum, we strive to bring you accurate, concise analyses of developments that do not always make the evening news—and to add substance to those that do. If you enjoyed this issue of the MEF Dispatch, please forward it to a friend. We will return soon with another issue to keep you informed. Stay tuned. Sincerely, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch Was this edition useful? 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