|  | | The War of Attrition in Gaza. Turkish Troubles: Despotism Spreads Misery at Home, Demands U.S. Response By Winfield Myers ● Apr 02, 2025 Smart Brevity® count: 5.5 mins...1523 words We begin by examining the Israel-Hamas conflict as a war of attrition that, as Jonathan Spyer writes, was beset from the start by contradictory goals: freeing the hostages while simultaneously destroying Hamas. Seth Frantzman looks back to the errors that made October 7 possible and argues that a nation neglects its infantry at its own peril. The rest of this issue is devoted to analyses of Turkey's accelerating slide into despotism under its Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. His arrest of Istanbul's mayor—his principal political opponent—coupled with neo-Ottoman designs abroad and harboring terrorists at home should put to rest the Western fantasy that Ankara's strongman is a pragmatist with whom we can do business. The State Department, says Michael Rubin, should slap terrorism sanctions on Turkey so that Turks will understand what they must do in order to rejoin the Western alliance. | | Who Will Break First in War of Attrition – Israel or Hamas? By: Jonathan Spyer Eighteen months into the conflict initiated by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Israel's internal cohesion and its peoples' capacity for endurance are under considerable strain. At the same time, the weaknesses and limitations of the Islamist enemy have also been revealed. Why it matters: This is a conflict between societies, systems, and ideas. The key question is: which one will break first? -
An unpleasant fact rarely mentioned in the internal Israeli debate on Gaza is that Israel's war aims from the very start have been beset by a basic contradiction: both free the hostages, and destroy Hamas's governing and military capacities. -
Hamas identified the potential of this contradiction at the start of the war and hopes to leverage it to ensure their own survival and hence victory. Gaza: Israel nears a major ground offensive, questioning whether it's a strategic shift or a negotiation tactic for hostage releases. The regional dimension: Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, continue their assaults, but Israeli defenses hold firm. Home front: A large section of the public associated with the political opposition believes Netanyahu is restarting the war for the sole purpose of ensuring his continued incumbency and preventing a reckoning of the failures that led to its outbreak. War of attrition: An exhausting, draining, war of attrition is under way now, in which both sides must reach into their innermost resources to keep going. Who will break first? Much regarding the region's future depends on the answer. To read the full article, click here. | | Seth Frantzman on the October 7 War: Israel's Battle for Security in Gaza  Seth Frantzman's latest book, The October 7 War: Israel's Battle for Security in Gaza looks into the devastating Hamas attack on Israel, the battles that followed, and the global forces at play. In preparing the book, the author had exclusive access to IDF soldiers and commanders and to military strategists. Mr. Frantzman will in this talk explore how Israel responded to the October 7 attacks, and what this conflict means for the future of the Middle East. How did Hamas orchestrate such a deadly assault? What role did international players have? And how will this war reshape the region? Seth Frantzman is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The author of three books, he is the acting news editor and senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post. He has written for a variety of media, including The Wall Street Journal, The Hill, The Spectator, The National Interest, and other outlets. He holds a B.A. in history and political science from the University of Arizona and a Ph.D. from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. To watch the full podcast, click here. | | The Geopolitical Ripples of Turkey's Power Struggle By: Abdullah Bozkurt The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu highlights Turkey's shift under President Erdoğan where elections are tightly controlled, rigged in advance, and reduced to a democratic façade without free and fair campaign conditions. Why it matters: Erdoğan's actions are drawing parallels to Iran's political system, where elections serve as a democratic façade without true competition. Erdoğan's strategy: The Turkish president systematically controls opposition through judicial manipulation, ensuring only regime-friendly candidates challenge him. The broader impact: Turkey's political shift under Erdoğan has undermined its democratic institutions, as opposition voices are systematically silenced nationwide. To read the full article, click here. | | The Geopolitical Ripples of Turkey's Power Struggle By: Loqman Radpey The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu underscores Turkey's intensifying political dynamics, with significant implications for the Kurdish population. Why it matters: Erdoğan's strategy systematically targets Kurdish rights and political aspirations, undermining regional stability and alliances. Kurdish repression: Historical methods of Kurdish repression are being repurposed against new political adversaries. Regional influence: Erdoğan's policies extend beyond Turkey, affecting Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq. Strategic challenge: The U.S. must navigate Erdoğan's authoritarian trends while supporting its Kurdish allies in the region. To read the full article, click here. | | Turkey's Trail of Terror and American Foreign Policy By: Michael Rubin Turkey under Erdoğan is executing a strategic pivot that echoes Iran's 1979 revolution, threatening regional stability and challenging U.S. alliances. Why it matters: Erdoğan's consolidation of power is not just a domestic issue; it's reshaping Turkey into a state sponsor of terror, undermining global security. Erdoğan's grip: By commandeering Turkey's media and financial institutions, Erdoğan crushes dissent and manipulates public opinion, paving the way for unchecked rule. Terror links: Turkey's clandestine support for terrorist factions, including those linked to al-Qaeda, positions it as a destabilizing force in the region. Call to action: The U.S. must confront Turkey's authoritarian shift decisively. Terrorism sanctions would infuse credibility into the State Department's terror designation process by demonstrating that objective factors trump subjective ones. To read the full article, click here. | | Erdoğan Empowers U.S.-Convicted Palestinian Islamic Jihad Figure to Operate Freely in Turkey By: Abdullah Bozkurt Sami Al-Arian, a convicted figure in the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), operates freely in Turkey, leveraging state resources to spread radical narratives. U.S. legacy: Al-Arian's past in the U.S. involved deep ties to PIJ, leading to his conviction on terrorism charges. Why it matters: Al-Arian's activities in Turkey underscore the Erdoğan government's support for terrorism supporters, complicating Turkey's relations with the U.S. and EU. State-backed influence: Al-Arian frequently appears on Turkish state media, exploiting his access to spread anti-U.S. and anti-Israel narratives. To read the full article, click here. | | | | The Middle East continues to make the headlines, with some commentators dismissing the region as beyond America's concern while others melt into hysteria. Our goal is always to keep you in-the-know with analyses that make complex issues digestible—though we can't guarantee that news from the region won't cause indigestion. We'll return soon. Sincerely, Winfield Myers Managing Editor, Middle East Forum Director, Campus Watch | | | Was this edition useful?    Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender |       MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government.
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