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среда, 2 апреля 2025 г.

The War of Attrition in Gaza. Turkish Troubles: Despotism Spreads Misery at Home, Demands U.S. Response

By Winfield Myers ● Apr 02, 2025

Smart Brevity^® count: 5.5 mins...1523 words

We begin by examining the Israel-Hamas conflict as a war of attrition that, as Jonathan Spyer writes, was beset from the start by contradictory goals: freeing the hostages while simultaneously destroying Hamas. Seth Frantzman looks back to the errors that made October 7 possible and argues that a nation neglects its infantry at its own peril.

The rest of this issue is devoted to analyses of Turkey's accelerating slide into despotism under its Islamist president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. His arrest of Istanbul's mayor—his principal political opponent—coupled with neo-Ottoman designs abroad and harboring terrorists at home should put to rest the Western fantasy that Ankara's strongman is a pragmatist with whom we can do business. The State Department, says Michael Rubin, should slap terrorism sanctions on Turkey so that Turks will understand what they must do in order to rejoin the Western alliance.

Who Will Break First in War of Attrition – Israel or Hamas?

An Israeli Merkava tank fighting against Hamas in Han Yunus city, Gaza; Feb. 7, 2024. Shutterstock

By: Jonathan Spyer

Eighteen months into the conflict initiated by Hamas on October 7, 2023, Israel's internal cohesion and its peoples' capacity for endurance are under considerable strain. At the same time, the weaknesses and limitations of the Islamist enemy have also been revealed.

Why it matters: This is a conflict between societies, systems, and ideas. The key question is: which one will break first?

An unpleasant fact rarely mentioned in the internal Israeli debate on Gaza is that Israel's war aims from the very start have been beset by a basic contradiction: both free the hostages, and destroy Hamas's governing and military capacities.
Hamas identified the potential of this contradiction at the start of the war and hopes to leverage it to ensure their own survival and hence victory.

Gaza: Israel nears a major ground offensive, questioning whether it's a strategic shift or a negotiation tactic for hostage releases.

The only other way to return the hostages is to negotiate with their Hamas captors. But it isn't possible to negotiate with any group of people while at the same time trying to destroy them as a military and political force.

The regional dimension: Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, continue their assaults, but Israeli defenses hold firm.

Israel's regional actions have exposed and weakened Iranian forces but have not fully destroyed them.

Home front: A large section of the public associated with the political opposition believes Netanyahu is restarting the war for the sole purpose of ensuring his continued incumbency and preventing a reckoning of the failures that led to its outbreak.

Netanyahu's supporters see opponents as deliberately engaging in fomenting internal division at a time of external threat, because of their desire to destroy the prime minister.

War of attrition: An exhausting, draining, war of attrition is under way now, in which both sides must reach into their innermost resources to keep going. Who will break first? Much regarding the region's future depends on the answer.

To read the full article, click here.

Seth Frantzman on the October 7 War: Israel's Battle for Security in Gaza

Seth Frantzman's latest book, The October 7 War: Israel's Battle for Security in Gaza looks into the devastating Hamas attack on Israel, the battles that followed, and the global forces at play. In preparing the book, the author had exclusive access to IDF soldiers and commanders and to military strategists. Mr. Frantzman will in this talk explore how Israel responded to the October 7 attacks, and what this conflict means for the future of the Middle East. How did Hamas orchestrate such a deadly assault? What role did international players have? And how will this war reshape the region?

Seth Frantzman is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The author of three books, he is the acting news editor and senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post. He has written for a variety of media, including The Wall Street Journal, The Hill, The Spectator, The National Interest, and other outlets. He holds a B.A. in history and political science from the University of Arizona and a Ph.D. from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

To watch the full podcast, click here.

The Geopolitical Ripples of Turkey's Power Struggle

After the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a crowd gathered in front of the Saraçhane Municipality building to protest. Istanbul, Turkey, March 19, 2025. Shutterstoc...

By: Abdullah Bozkurt

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu highlights Turkey's shift under President Erdoğan where elections are tightly controlled, rigged in advance, and reduced to a democratic façade without free and fair campaign conditions.

Why it matters: Erdoğan's actions are drawing parallels to Iran's political system, where elections serve as a democratic façade without true competition.

The arrest of İmamoğlu, following Kurdish leader Demirtaş's imprisonment, signals that a de facto Islamist "Guardian Council" is taking shape in Turkey.

Erdoğan's strategy: The Turkish president systematically controls opposition through judicial manipulation, ensuring only regime-friendly candidates challenge him.

Erdoğan's tactics include imprisoning opponents, co-opting figures through bribery, and exerting media control to shape narratives.

The broader impact: Turkey's political shift under Erdoğan has undermined its democratic institutions, as opposition voices are systematically silenced nationwide.

Erdoğan's vision involves cementing an authoritarian Islamist regime, undermining parliamentary democracy, and extending his influence beyond borders.

To read the full article, click here.

The Geopolitical Ripples of Turkey's Power Struggle

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is systematically eliminating political rivals while continuing Turkey's longstanding policy of denying Kurdsish rights. Seen here in Berlin, 2023. Shutterstock

By: Loqman Radpey

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu underscores Turkey's intensifying political dynamics, with significant implications for the Kurdish population.

Why it matters: Erdoğan's strategy systematically targets Kurdish rights and political aspirations, undermining regional stability and alliances.

The suppression of Kurdish identity and politics has been a consistent theme in Turkey, now extending to Kemalist challengers like İmamoğlu.

Kurdish repression: Historical methods of Kurdish repression are being repurposed against new political adversaries.

Despite internal rivalries, both İmamoğlu's Republican People's Party and the ruling Justice and Development Party rely on Kurdish votes while simultaneously undermining Kurdish political rights.

Regional influence: Erdoğan's policies extend beyond Turkey, affecting Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq.

The Turkish government's actions threaten the autonomy and political strength of Kurdish groups, challenging U.S. support for its Kurdish allies.

Strategic challenge: The U.S. must navigate Erdoğan's authoritarian trends while supporting its Kurdish allies in the region.

Turkey's ambition to dominate regional geopolitics complicates Western security strategies, including Kurdish alliances.

To read the full article, click here.

Turkey's Trail of Terror and American Foreign Policy

The late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while visiting the ship Mavi Marmara in Istanbul on January 2, 2012. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

Turkey under Erdoğan is executing a strategic pivot that echoes Iran's 1979 revolution, threatening regional stability and challenging U.S. alliances.

Why it matters: Erdoğan's consolidation of power is not just a domestic issue; it's reshaping Turkey into a state sponsor of terror, undermining global security.

The façade of EU accession masked Erdoğan's autocratic ambitions, now blatantly exposed with the arrest of the opposition leader, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Erdoğan's grip: By commandeering Turkey's media and financial institutions, Erdoğan crushes dissent and manipulates public opinion, paving the way for unchecked rule.

His regime's actions against critics like İmamoğlu are a clear abuse of power.

Terror links: Turkey's clandestine support for terrorist factions, including those linked to al-Qaeda, positions it as a destabilizing force in the region.

Such actions demand a reevaluation of Turkey's alignment with Western values and interests.

Call to action: The U.S. must confront Turkey's authoritarian shift decisively. Terrorism sanctions would infuse credibility into the State Department's terror designation process by demonstrating that objective factors trump subjective ones.

To read the full article, click here.

Erdoğan Empowers U.S.-Convicted Palestinian Islamic Jihad Figure to Operate Freely in Turkey

Since his conditional release from prison in the U.S. following a guilty plea, subsequent deportation, and his welcome by the Erdogan government in 2015, Sami Al-Arian has enjoyed Erdoğan's protection...

By: Abdullah Bozkurt

Sami Al-Arian, a convicted figure in the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), operates freely in Turkey, leveraging state resources to spread radical narratives.

U.S. legacy: Al-Arian's past in the U.S. involved deep ties to PIJ, leading to his conviction on terrorism charges.

His activities included fundraising and providing material support to PIJ, which led to his deportation in 2015 after a plea deal.

Why it matters: Al-Arian's activities in Turkey underscore the Erdoğan government's support for terrorism supporters, complicating Turkey's relations with the U.S. and EU.

Despite PIJ's terrorist designation, Turkey provides Al-Arian an academic platform to promote jihadist rhetoric and anti-Western sentiments.

State-backed influence: Al-Arian frequently appears on Turkish state media, exploiting his access to spread anti-U.S. and anti-Israel narratives.

His roles in Turkish academia and media amplify his message and lend it a veneer of legitimacy, influencing both domestic and international audiences.

To read the full article, click here.