| |  | | | The Iran Issue: The 'Revolution' Rightly Understood; Old Alliances Revived; The Late Shah's Influence; More By Winfield Myers ● Jul 30, 2025 Smart Brevity® count: 10.5 mins...2805 words Today we present eight articles exploring myriad topics on Iran, from regime change to water shortages. Mardo Soghom explains why the 1979 revolution was in fact a "reactionary upheaval"—a "deliberate step backwards." Soghom also compares the political allegiances formed during that cataclysmic event to the tumult in today's Iran and finds striking similarities, often involving the same people. Ali Hamedani writes that the late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi is popular among Iranian youth, for whom the Shah is a "mirror of a different future." How that future may come about is addressed by Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi, who argue that the only viable way to oust the current regime is through a "hard" change that replaces not just current rulers, but the entire ruling system, including its ideology and elite. We feature additional articles on Iran by Soghom, Shay Khatiri, Faezeh Alavi, and Babak Taghvaee. | | Why Iran's 1979 Upheaval Was a Counterrevolution, Not a Revolution  By: Mardo Soghom The Islamic Revolution of 1979 in Iran is often seen as a pivotal event that redefined the nation's path. In reality, it was a counterrevolution against half a century of rapid modernization that had moved Iran from an agrarian, semi-feudal society toward modernity. Reforms before 1979: The Pahlavi Dynasty, founded by Reza Shah in the early 1920s, introduced a secular education system inspired by Western models, created largely secular laws and courts, and launched efforts to free women from religious and traditional restrictions. -
Western orientalists often fail to grasp the depth of frustration and anguish felt by many peoples in the developing world as they confronted the contrast between their own socioeconomic backwardness and the industrial and technological power of the West. For many, the future of their children—and their nations—seemed impossible without adopting Western-style modern education and efficient governance. Why it matters: Iran's shift to a religious theocracy disrupted half a century of efforts to modernize the country and align it closer to Western standards. -
The revolution led to an anti-Western and anti-Israel foreign policy, isolating Iran and contributing to its economic struggles. -
The new regime compelled women to wear the strict hijab, placed courts under Islamic law, and the relatively free-market economy gave way to state ownership and government control. The big picture: The revolution wasn't a natural progression but a deliberate step backward, halting modernization and altering Iran's role as a Western ally. What's next: Recognizing the 1979 revolution as an anomaly and a deliberate step backwards is key to understanding Iran's current challenges. -
If Iran is ever to return to her rightful place as a leader among nation-states, of industry, and as a first-world country, it is necessary to recognize that the Islamic Revolution was a counterrevolution meant to hobble Iran's growth and prosperity and not enable it. To read the full article, click here. | | Iran's 2025 Political Coalitions Revert to the Old 1979 Alliances  By: Mardo Soghom Leftist-Islamist figures and so-called reformists, many of whom played key roles in the 1979 revolution, have recently issued statements calling for a referendum and the formation of a constitutional assembly to reshape Iran's political system. Why it matters: With Mir-Hossein Mousavi at the forefront, these calls highlight internal dissatisfaction with Iran's current regime. Mousavi, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's trusted prime minister during the 1980s, has been under house arrest since 2011. He criticizes the regime for its domestic failures and foreign policy. -
Some former regime officials and figures who have supported the Islamic Republic are genuinely opposed to Khamenei's dictatorship. Mousavi and many others are his critics. -
However, most remain staunchly anti-Israel and continue to view the world through the lens of twentieth-century anti-imperialist rhetoric. Mousavi himself exemplifies this mindset, with a track record of radical Islamist ideology and policies during his tenure as prime minister. The big picture: Over 700 political figures support Mousavi's proposal, but pro-reform segments and regime change advocates remain divided. What's next: In essence, the political battle lines appear to mirror those of 1979, with Islamists, leftists, and anti-Israel forces aligning against regime change advocates who are betting that mounting foreign pressure and deepening economic and social crises eventually will bring down the Islamic Republic. To read the full article, click here. | | ICYMI – "The Jordanian Monarchy: Past, Present, and Future" with Aaron Magid  In Jordan, King Abdullah II has steered a delicate course through a turbulent region, balancing global alliances with domestic pressures, as vividly captured in The Most American King, the first comprehensive biography of the king. Drawing on over 100 interviews with Abdullah's classmates, former Jordanian ministers, and CIA directors, author Aaron Magid, a former Amman-based journalist, traces Abdullah's journey from a Massachusetts prep school and British military academy to the throne. Abdullah, ruling now for over a quarter century, has survived the 2011 Arab Spring upheavals that toppled neighboring leaders, while navigating wars, refugee crises, and internal dissent. His intelligence services have thwarted Al-Qaeda plots. His ties to the US remain deep. But a $15 billion gas deal with Israel, and the decision to host US troops for the 2003 Iraq invasion sparked protests and criticism from the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and other groups. How has Abdullah maintained power in a volatile region while managing these tensions? What do his pro-Western policies mean for Jordan's future and its role in Middle Eastern geopolitics? Aaron Magid is the author of The Most American King: Abdullah of Jordan and hosts the On Jordan podcast. A former Amman-based journalist, his articles on the Hashemite Kingdom have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and Al-Monitor. He holds a B.A. in Arabic and political science from the University of Michigan and an M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies from Harvard University.
To purchase The Most American King: Abdullah of Jordan, click here. To watch the full podcast episode, click here. | | Why the Late Shah Remains Central to Iran's Political Debate 45 Years After His Death  By: Ali Hamedani July 27 marked 45 years since the death of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran's last shah, whose legacy remains central to Iran's political discourse. Why it matters: Despite efforts by the regime to erase his influence, the shah symbolizes a modern, globally connected Iran that many, especially young Iranians, aspire to reclaim. -
During his reign, Iran transformed into a regional powerhouse with a thriving economy, progressive urbanization, and increased participation of women in education and the workforce. -
The Islamic Revolution, promising justice and independence, instead ushered in decades of authoritarian rule and international isolation. The big picture: The shah's era is viewed by many as a time of modernity rather than monarchy, challenging the regime's narrative. -
Recent protests, fueled by disillusionment with the current regime, have reignited interest in the shah's legacy, seen in the popularity of pre-revolutionary content online. What's next: As Iran grapples with economic challenges and diplomatic isolation, the question arises: What would Iran look like if it remained on the shah's path? -
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi died decades ago, but what he represents remains a growing force in Iran's political imagination. Iranians crave what the shah sought: a modern and globally engaged Iran. -
For many, especially in the diaspora and among younger generations at home, the shah is not just a figure of the past but, rather, a mirror of a different future. To read the full article, click here. | | What Does Regime Change in Iran Look Like?  By: Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi Israel's military success in Iran and the Islamic Republic's reckless actions have reignited discussions of regime change. Why it matters: Regional powers aim to dismantle Iran's destabilizing military doctrine, targeting nuclear weapons, missiles, and Islamist proxies. -
Despite negative associations with regime change due to Iraq and Afghanistan, shifts in Syria have made it a viable policy option again. -
Policymakers and military officials now openly debate soft, semi-hard, and hard regime change strategies for Iran. The big picture: Soft regime change, which relies on political pressure, seems ineffective given Iran's entrenched institutions like the IRGC. Semi-hard change suggests internal coups or leadership shifts but faces obstacles due to the IRGC's ideological ties to the regime. -
Hard regime change, involving a complete overhaul, presents itself as the only path to genuine transformation. -
The weakening of the Islamic Republic's suppressive apparatus could certainly create the space for the Iranian people to mobilize effectively. In such a scenario, a foreign power—such as Israel or even the U.S.—could provide air support to protect protesters by striking the regime's security headquarters, command centers, and units, which have historically crushed uprisings with brutal force. What's next: With Israel having already shifted the strategic balance, there may be a genuine opportunity for the Iranian people to reclaim their future from the regime's grip. -
While the regime showed an ability to sustain power through internal repression against a defenseless Iranian population, that equation changes if the suppressive machinery is significantly weakened through external support. -
Some continue to argue that regime change in Iran remains unrealistic and untenable—but if the 12-Day War revealed anything, it is that the Islamic Republic is far weaker than previously believed. To read the full article, click here. | | MEF Action Alert: Stop Turkey's F-35 Purchase  Turkey is pushing to rejoin the F-35 program despite owning Russia's S-400 missile system, which threatens U.S. aircraft and risks exposing sensitive F-35 technology to Russian intelligence. In response, member of Congress are circulating a Dear Colleague letter that calls on Secretary of State Marco Rubio to deny an F-35 arms deal with Turkey under the 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which formally removed Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019. This is a critical moment. Allowing Turkey back without removing its S-400s endangers U.S. national security, undermines our defense industry, and compromises Israel's Qualitative Military Edge. We must not reward Turkey, which continues to host Hamas leadership, attack U.S. allies in Syria, and threaten the territorial integrity of Greece and Armenia. The F-35 is vital for U.S. aerial superiority and global defense partnerships. Act Now! Urge your House Representative to sign the letter to Secretary Rubio demanding the White House reject Turkey's F-35 bid and uphold CAATSA sanctions. Time is short—Turkey's actions threaten U.S. interests and must not be rewarded. Sign up now to protect our military secrets and defense leadership! Click here to sign up for our letter-writing campaign to demand Congress reject Turkey's F-35 bid and uphold CAATSA sanctions. | | Iranian Diplomatic Strategy Remains Confused as Snap-Back Sanctions Loom  By: Mardo Soghom Amid mounting economic and social pressures, speculation grows in the West—and even in Tehran's own media—over whether the Islamic Republic is edging toward a deal with the West before Europe "snaps back" United Nations sanctions in August 2025 or whether Tehran is buying time as it reconstitutes its nuclear and military programs damaged by Israeli and U.S. bombardment. Why it matters: Ordinary Iranians face dire conditions, with water shortages, rolling blackouts, and soaring consumer prices fueling unrest. -
A journalist tweeted about a 40-hour water outage in Tehran, highlighting the regime's decades of mismanagement. -
Nightly rooftop chants against the regime have become routine, as citizens express their dissatisfaction. The big picture: Tehran's media question whether the government is shifting its foreign policy or stalling for time to rebuild its nuclear and military programs. What's next: Facing public anger and potential unrest, Pezeshkian's so-called moderate government is moving to tighten internal control. Overwhelmed by a surge of online criticism, it has proposed legislation that would increase penalties for what security agencies label "disinformation." -
The possibility of a second round of Israeli airstrikes looms. Public opinion is divided. Supporters of the government and some others condemn any such attack, but regime-change advocates are less restrained, seeing further blows to Iran's military and security apparatus as a potential catalyst for mass protests and, possibly, regime collapse. To read the full article, click here. | | Could Iran's Water Shortage Fracture the Regime's Hardline Base?  By: Mardo Soghom Water and power outages in Iran continue to escalate, rooted in decades of poor policy and political corruption, and could trigger a significant uprising. If that occurs, it will be the most serious internal challenge the regime has faced. Why it matters: Iran's dam industry, once seen as a success, has now laid bare the regime's mismanagement and corruption. The big picture: As water shortages worsen, Iranians increasingly blame government mismanagement rather than natural droughts. What's next: For decades, the clergy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sought credit from the regime's dam-building. Today, they cannot distance themselves from the disaster that policy has wrought. -
With Tehran running dry and blackouts increasing at the height of summer, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei faces a major crisis just a month after losing a war that largely discredited him as a leader and weakened Iran's apparatus of repression. Even regime supporters blame government incompetence and sympathize with the people. -
The Islamic Republic now faces a fiasco. The growing crack within the regime's hardline base will mark the most difficult political crisis that Khamenei has ever faced. To read the full article, click here. | | How Tehran Benefits from Syrians Attacking the Druze  By: Faezeh Alavi On July 15, 2025, Syrian Bedouin backed by Islamist Syrian government forces intensified attacks on Druze in Suwayda, killing nearly 1,000. Israel views this area as a buffer zone and demands its demilitarization. Why it matters: Iran uses the Suwayda crisis to shift focus from its 12-day war with Israel and advance its strategic goals. -
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Israel of aggression, seeking to frame Iran as a defender of Syrian sovereignty. -
Tehran aims to portray Israel as a destabilizing force in the Middle East while rearming regional proxies. The big picture: Iran stokes fear that Syria's instability could mirror Iran, using media to warn against partition. What's next: Recent movements by the Islamic Republic in the region also show that Iran has not completely given up on Syria after former president Bashar al-Assad's fall. Iran now seeks to exert its influence, mainly through chaos. -
As Syria's new self-declared president Ahmed al-Sharaa recalibrates Syria's relationship with Israel and the West but fails to stabilize Syria, foreign ministries and diplomats should neither underestimate Tehran's efforts to exploit instability nor claw back its influence in Syria at the expense of other regional states. To read the full article, click here. | | Iran's Mahan Air Defies Sanctions, Acquires U.S.-Built Boeing 777s  By: Babak Taghvaee In a significant sanctions evasion move, Mahan Air, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked airline sanctioned by the U.S. Department of the Treasury since 2011, smuggled five U.S.-manufactured Boeing 777-212ER aircraft into Iran, marking a major breach of U.S. aviation sanctions. Why it matters: This operation underscores Iran's growing audacity in circumventing U.S. sanctions, highlighting weaknesses in enforcement. -
The aircraft, acquired through a network of front companies, enhance Mahan Air's long-haul capabilities, potentially boosting routes to China and Southeast Asia. -
The acquisition occurred despite U.S. measures, pointing to the erosion of American deterrence in critical regions. The big picture: Using pathways through Australia, China, and Indonesia, the smuggling operation exploited loopholes in international aviation security. What's next: The U.S. Department of the Treasury should immediately sanction the front company of Mahan Air in Madagascar, as well as the Indonesian intermediaries that facilitated the transfer. -
Furthermore, the U.S. Department of State must apply pressure on jurisdictions that enable illicit registrations and allow smuggled aircraft to transit their airports. -
Without a coordinated response, Iran's aviation proxies will continue expanding their IRGC-aligned fleet, challenging U.S. geopolitical interests. To read the full article, click here. | | | | | Thank you for reading the Dispatch and for counting on the Middle East Forum to bring you continuing updates and analyses. Please share this with a friend and let us know what you think of our ongoing coverage. Thank you, Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
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